Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

Significant Snow Event Wednesday?

| February 23, 2015 @ 6:11 am

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

NO DULL DAYS IN THE WEATHER OFFICE: We have three issues on the plate this week, and the third one (on Wednesday) will be the big one, most likely. I always encourage you to watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics that go along with the discussion along with more details. Let’s take all three in chronological order…

1. THIS MORNING: As the HRRR predicted last night, the freeze line has indeed stayed north of Birmingham. Temperatures are in the mid 30s at Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston; any ice issues are confined to areas along and north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden, where winter advisories remain in effect.

Screen Shot 2015-02-23 at 4.13.08 AM

Seems like ice issues are very limited over the northern third of Alabama, and any ice patches will melt away by mid-morning when temperatures go above freezing. Otherwise, today will be cloudy and cold with a high in the low 40s.

2. TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING: Yet another wave in the southern branch of the jet stream will bring precipitation to Alabama. The airmass will be colder tonight, and the HRRR suggests a mix of light snow and rain will enter the northwest counties late this afternoon. If you live in Hamilton, Haleyville, or Vernon you might see a snow flake or two, but temperatures at the surface won’t go below freezing until around 10 p.m… so no travel impact early tonight.

Temperatures will be below freezing from around 10:00 tonight through 9:00 tomorrow morning, and it is likely that we see some light freezing rain during this 11 hour window, and there is a very real chance we will have icy travel. I don’t want people to miss this since so many people are talking about Wednesday. Winter weather advisories will most likely be required for parts of North/Central Alabama… they will be issued at midday today for this time frame.

3. WEDNESDAY: We have a classic snow setup for North Alabama, assuming thermal profiles are cold enough for snow. Models do indicate saturation and good lift in the dendritic growth zone, and most are getting on board for a significant snow event. A low pressure center in the northern Gulf will move up into North Florida, a favored snow track for North Alabama.

This is the snow potential from WPC (75 percentile)…

WPC

And, the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) plume viewer shows a mean of about 3 inches for Birmingham (the black line is the mean), with some ensemble members going much higher…

Screen Shot 2015-02-23 at 4.37.12 AM

It is very important to note that right now we can’t be specific with accumulation forecasts, placement, impact, or timing. That comes later today. For now, just be aware there is potential for a signifiant snow event somewhere across North/Central Alabama Wednesday that COULD be a high impact event. Please read the “ten things people need to know about winter weather forecasts” if you haven’t already.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: These two days look just cold and dry with a partly sunny sky; the high Thursday will be near 40, with mid 40s Friday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The warming trend continues. Expect mostly sunny weather both days; we reach 50 degrees Saturday afternoon, with mid 50s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS shows a strong surface low moving through the Southern Plains, and much warmer air moving into Alabama (the GFS is printing a high of 67 for Birmingham Monday). This could set the stage for strong thunderstorms early in the week; keep in mind the spring tornado season kicks off Sunday (March 1). Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7” on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

ALABAMA POWER IS READY, ARE YOU? Our friends at Alabama Power are monitoring the forecast closely, ready to deploy people and assets to quickly address any outages that might occur. Read a special message from Ike Piggot about their commitment to their customers.

I have weather programs today at Northington Elementary in Tuscaloosa, and Eden Elementary in Pell City. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day…

Tags: ,

Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

Comments are closed.