Some Weather Notes

There is a tremendous amount of energy being expended today as weather forecasters all across the Southeast US are working diligently to provide everyone with the best possible forecast on what we can expect from the impending winter storm. I’ve been spending a good deal of time this morning and early afternoon looking over the various models and looking at the consistency and juxtaposition of the last several model runs and models. It’s been interesting to see the ECMWF has been trending the primary snow band a little further south with time while the GFS has been trending the main snow band a little north with time. But even more interesting is that both models are in very close agreement on the timing AND location AND snowfall amounts. The models will never actually arrive at the exact solution, but it is encouraging, read that as confidence is growing, that this event will play out as we think it might.

But James has pointed this out and I can add to what he has said with my 48 years of experience in Southeast US weather – heavy snow bands are extremely hard to nail down exactly even just hours in advance. Small changes in the track of the surface low, changes like 10 miles north or 15 miles south, can make the difference in where that heavy snow band occurs. So realize that even as our confidence is growing in the forecast we’ve putting out, there is still room for change one way or the other.

If you want to know more, check out the great post James made a few days ago by my colleague and fellow WCM, Rick Smith from Norman, OK.

Now let the snow begin! Well, tomorrow morning!!

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather, Winter Weather