Possible New Watch

AREAS AFFECTED…CNTRL AND NRN MS…SRN TN…ERN AND SRN AR…NE LA

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 032057Z – 032230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…40 PERCENT

SUMMARY…AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP FROM CNTRL MS NEWD
ACROSS NW AL INTO SRN TN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT IN ERN AND SRN AR. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION…LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD
ACROSS WRN TN AND ERN AR WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F. AN AXIS OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENT IN THE SFC WIND FIELD FROM NEAR
JACKSON MS NEWD ACROSS NW AL WHERE CONVECTION HAS INITIATED OVER THE
LAST HOUR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NE AR AND DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PARTIAL CLEARING
ON SATELLITE AND SFC HEATING SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR
1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT…EVIDENT
ON THE JACKSON MS AND MEMPHIS TN WSR-88D VWPS…SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH WIND DAMAGE AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS…LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
AL WHERE THE HUNTSVILLE AL WSR-88D VWP SHOWS A CURVED HODOGRAPH.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather