Transitioning to Wet Weather

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After a very nice April day for Saturday, today will be a transition day as Central Alabama gets set for about a week of unsettled weather. The day will start out dry with some high cirrus clouds, but the clouds should thicken and lower as the afternoon goes on with a possibility of showers going into the evening hours. Highs should be in the 70s.

The current upper air pattern features a closed low over northern Mexico with a weak ridge over the Southeast US. This establishes a good southwesterly flow with moisture coming out of the Pacific across the Southeast US. A series of weak disturbances will come out across the Southeast US in the southwesterly flow. The closed low will open into a wave as the northern stream brings a front down into the area by Tuesday. The front will stall out across the Southeast US while we maintain a wet southwesterly flow aloft keeping deep moisture in place. This translates to periods of rain and storms off and on for much of the week ahead.

The pattern does not change much until the northern stream finally digs a closed low into New Mexico Thursday keeping us in deep moisture. The latest GFS is much slower in bringing the closed low out across the Lower Mississippi River Valley, so it looks like we will stay wet into next weekend before the closed low and trough can inch by us to finally end the wet pattern. On the bright side, we will see highs primarily in the 70s and lows 58 to 64 for much of the week ahead, so no signs of any significant temperature fluctuations.

Rainfall for the next five days could result in totals of 3 to 5 inches. While there may be some heavy rain Monday, the flash flooding threat seems minimal since we have seen a couple of days of dry weather. However, this wet pattern could result in additional heavy rains this week that may elevate the flash flood threat.

For beach goers, look for scattered showers and thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast this week. Expect 3 to 5 hours of sun with the daily risk of passing showers or thunderstorms. No big changes in temperatures as highs will be in the 70s, and overnight lows will be in the upper 60s. The water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was about 75 degrees. There is a danger of rip currents as the wind flow becomes strong onshore over the next several days.

Looking out into voodoo country, the end of April appears likely to remain somewhat stormy with a substantial trough/closed low around April 22nd and then another strong short wave around the 26th/27th. So no rest in the weather department.

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James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video here first thing on Monday morning. Enjoy the day and get the rain gear ready. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather