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Showers Return To Alabama Tonight

| April 22, 2015 @ 6:33 am

MOSTLY DRY TODAY: Pretty chilly for late April this morning; we note that Vic Bell up at Black Creek, near Gadsden, is reporting 37 degrees just before daybreak. Fort Payne is also at 37. But, we warm nicely today with a high in the upper 70s this afternoon along with a partly sunny sky. We will mention a small risk of a shower late in the day, mainly north of Birmingham.

RAIN RETURNS TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING: Showers are more likely late tonight, especially after midnight, as a cold front approaches. Seems like the main window for the rain is from about 12:00 midnight tonight through 12:00 noon tomorrow. Some thunder is possible, but there is no risk of severe weather, and rain amounts should be 1/2 inch or less. The sky becomes partly sunny tomorrow afternoon as drier air works in, and the day will be cooler with a high in the upper 60s.

ACTIVE WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK: Sure looks like we will have two setups for severe weather… you know we are in the core of the spring tornado season, and this is when we need to keep our eye on the ball.

The daytime hours on Friday look generally dry with only a small risk of an afternoon shower; we rise into the low 70s Friday afternoon. A northward moving warm front will bring rain and thunderstorms in here Friday night with potential for heavy rain. And, maybe a few strong storms as well.

SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY? Models continue to show higher instability across our state Saturday, with surface based CAPE values exceeding 2,000 j/kg. This means air parcels are able to rise freely, one of the important variables needed for severe storm formation. The low level jet (5,000 feet off the ground) will be in the 40 knot range, and there will be some degree of shear in place with a surface low over Missouri and an approaching upper trough.

It won’t rain all day Saturday, and the sun might even break out at times pushing temperatures to near 80 degrees. But we will need to forecast occasional showers and storms during the day, with the potential for some storms to become strong to severe. I would suggest the primary threats will come from hail and strong gusty straight line winds, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out with the setup we see now.

SUNDAY: Drier air works in here, and this day should be nice with ample sunshine and a high in the 70s.

MORE SEVERE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK: The GFS is now advertising a potent spring storm system, with a deep surface low over Missouri with support from a deep upper trough. Wind fields look impressive, and this could be a significant severe weather threat IF model output verifies. The core threat would be Monday night into Tuesday morning, but this could, and probably will change. No need to get worried about it now, but just something to watch. Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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