Watch May Be Issued

AREAS AFFECTED…PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN MS…EXTREME W-CENTRAL AL

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…40 PERCENT

SUMMARY…THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TRENDS IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
MONITORED AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 18Z.

DISCUSSION…LATEST RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BISECTING THE STATE OF
MISSISSIPPI…WITH RECENT MOTION TO THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 MPH. A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED COLD
POOL OVER WEST-CENTRAL MS…AND ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE E-W
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR JACKSON TO JUST NORTH OF MERIDIAN. AMPLE HEATING
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY…AND 25-35 KTS OF WSW
FLOW IN THE 2-4 KM AGL LAYER IS FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH OVERALL STORM
MOTIONS. A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE EASTWARD-MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR…AND AN ISOLATED THREAT WILL EXIST WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL MS/FAR
W-CENTRAL AL.

RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 18Z.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather