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Unsettled Weather Ahead

| August 16, 2015 @ 7:42 am

Thunderstorms were a bit more prevalent for the area of Alabama generally north and west of the Interstate corridor yesterday with a couple of storms packing a sizable punch. Today we will continue to deal with the upper level trough evident over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Radar this morning already shows some showers northwest of a Jasper to Cullman to Scottsboro line and another area of showers was located across the Alabama and Northwest Florida coastal area moving steadily north-northwestward.

BMX

The presence of added showers and storms along with clouds should keep temperatures down today with most places reaching into the middle and upper 80s for highs. While it will be possible that a break in the clouds will allow some locations to get more sun and reach near 90 degrees, I think those spots will be the exception.

Looks a little wetter for today and the week ahead for beachgoers. Better than average rain chances will stay in the forecast as a strong southerly flow continues across the Southeast US. Showers will be a daily threat, but there will still be some periods of sunshine. Temperatures along the beaches should top out in the mid-80s each day, while overnight lows will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Sea water temperature was running 83 to 85 degrees Fahrenheit along the northern Gulf Coast.

The weak upper trough is forecast to stay basically in place over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and just to our west, so this will keep us on the more active side of the trough and in a good southerly flow with a surface high pressure off in the Atlantic and a robust surface low moving through the Central Plains and into the Great Lakes area by Wednesday, keeping Central Alabama in a wet air mass and pretty much with showers and thunderstorms likely each day through the middle of the week.

Like we saw yesterday, SPC has the main risk of severe weather well to our northwest in parts of Northeast Colorado, Nebraska, and Iowa. Day 2 that risk drops southward a bit covering all of eastern Colorado and a sizable chunk of Kansas and Nebraska. For Day 3 the risk moves off the eastern slope of the Rockies a bit and on Day 4 the risk is just to our northwest as the frontal system and upper through move across the Great Lakes and the Central US.

With precipitable water values climbing up to around the 2-inch mark and the presence of the weak upper trough until the stronger trough arrives late Wednesday and into Thursday, we will stay in an unsettled weather pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible just about any time, not just the heat of the afternoon. With the presence of clouds and showers, I anticipate our afternoon highs to be held in the 80s. But it is August, so a break in the cloud cover for even a little longer period could spur some spots to reach the 90 degree range.

The strong upper trough moves by us on Friday, but we don’t get a real change in the air mass, so precipitable water values will hold on the highs side. At least for now, we should see fewer showers since the strong dynamics will be further north of Central Alabama.

Looking way out into Week 2, the GFS brings a strong upper ridge back into the picture with another bout with heat for the Southwest US. Fortunately, the GFS is also suggesting that the heat ridge will be fairly short lived with a trough affecting the eastern half of the country around August 31st. But be sure to watch the whole video for an interesting twist coming from the ECMWF.

James Spann should be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video on Monday morning. I’m going to be at Magnolia Manor later today to handle the emcee duties for the introduction of the latest Helena Belles. Enjoy the day and stay dry! Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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