Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

Rain Chances Stay Up, Cooler Days Ahead

| August 22, 2015 @ 7:38 am

Rain chances are expected to stay fairly high today as showers and thunderstorms should once again be fairly numerous. But they will be showers, so not everyone will get rain. And those clouds and showers will help keep temperatures in check somewhat with highs across Central Alabama in the 80s.

A cold front is progged to come through the area late Sunday in response to the development of a substantial trough over the eastern US. The trough gets set up on Sunday and into Monday and really digs in Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will reach the range from 88 to 92 on Sunday making Sunday one of the warmest days we will see in the coming week. The upper trough will dig a little deeper Wednesday and Thursday, so we should see our coolest days then with highs only into the lower and middle 80s. And fortunately, we should also see some drier air with dew points dropping into the 50s, so the middle of the week as we head toward the weekend will feel very nice.

KBHM_2015082200_min_max_16

But by Saturday, the trough over the eastern US begins to move out into the Atlantic, so I expect to see our temperatures climb back up close to 90 degrees once again. The climatological highs for the latter part of August are still in the lower 90s – 91 is the 30-year average value for this date for Birmingham. So just about anything we get below that is a win for us in my opinion.

If you have plans to head to the beaches of Northwest Florida and Alabama, there is a risk of a passing shower through at least mid-week. Even the beaches are forecast to dry out for the latter part of the week, but temperatures for the beach areas should stay up with highs in the lower 90s. The sea water temperatures all along the Northern Gulf Coast are ranging between 81F and 85F. Those water temperatures may feel a little colder by the end of the week when the drier air arrives.

SPC has a large area of enhanced risk for severe storms today for a sizable chunk of Minnesota, western Iowa, and a sliver of eastern Nebraska. All modes of severe weather will be possible in the early evolution of this weather system, but as it unfolds, hail and damaging wind should become the dominate forms of severe weather.

two_atl_2d0

And, wow, has the Atlantic tropical basin gotten busy! There are two areas of cloudiness being watched for possible development. One was located just south of Bermuda and it only has about a 20 or 30 percent chance of developing into a full blown storm. A second area was situated just off the African coast just south of Cape Verde Islands and it has somewhat better chances to develop over the next five days.

And then we have Danny. Danny was still a hurricane this morning, but it is not likely to remain a hurricane for much longer as it moves into an area of increasing shear. In fact, Danny is forecast to drop to tropical storm strength by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. And with the forecast track taking in across Puerto Rico and along the coastline of the Dominican Republic, it is likely to degrade further and the NHC folks are busting it down to a depression by the time it begins to affect the western Cuba and the southern portion of the Bahama Islands. Danny has been a rather tight storm since it formed, so I don’t think we should count it out just yet – stay tuned.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS has a rather complex pattern for the end of August with a substantial ridge along the eastern slopes of the Rockies paired with a weak, closed low over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. That eventually evolves into a ridge over the eastern US with a nice trough over the Four Corners area, so I don’t think we are quite through with summer just yet.

I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. Stay dry, please remember the dangers that come with lightning, and check back here often for updates on our ever-changing weather.

-Brian-

Tags:

Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

Comments are closed.