Moisture Levels Rising

BACK TO WORK: Things are quiet across Alabama this morning after the long Labor Day weekend; nothing on radar at daybreak, with temperatures mostly in the 68-73 degree range.

An upper low over the northern Gulf is drifting westward, and this will help to bring deeper moisture into our state today, meaning a pretty decent risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Chance of any one spot getting wet is about 50/50, and today’s high will be in the mid to upper 80s for most places.

TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: The weather will be relatively wet on these three days. The sky will be cloudy at times with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. While the best chance of showers and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours, we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s; there could be a day with temperatures not getting out of the 70s due to clouds and showers. Rain amounts on these three days should average around one inch, and organized severe weather is not expected.

SATURDAY: Forecast confidence is low; a deep upper trough over the eastern U.S. will push a surface cold front into Alabama. The GFS has the front Saturday afternoon roughly along I-59 (Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Gadsden), suggesting the chance of showers and storms will continue along and south of that line. However, the European model (the ECMWF) pushes the front deep into South Alabama, suggesting the day will be dry for the northern half of the state.

Gut feeling here says the drier solution is correct based on the upper air pattern, and I think we can begin to reduce the chance of rain for the in state college football games.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: These two days for now look dry and pleasant with cooler nights; a decent chance we visit the 50s early Sunday and Monday morning. Humidity values will be lower with highs in the low to mid 80s. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: You will need to take the rain gear for the high school games Thursday and Friday night, with a chance of showers and storms statewide. Temperatures will be generally in the 70s.

Alabama hosts Middle Tennessee State at Bryant-Denny Stadium Saturday afternoon; kickoff is at 3:00. We will maintain some risk of a shower during the game, but there is a decent chance dry air will arrive in Tuscaloosa as the game begins, with the higher risk of showers to the south. Temperatures will fall from near 83 at kickoff into the mid 70s by the final whistle.

Auburn plays their first game of the season at Jordan-Hare Stadium Saturday against Jacksonville State; kickoff is at 11:00. The sky will be mostly cloudy with a chance of showers; temperatures will hover in the low 80s during the game.

As noted above, forecast confidence is lower than usual for Saturday, so this could change later in the week. Stay tuned.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Grace is expected to dissipate within 24 hours as it moves west across the open Atlantic; dry air and wind shear is the issue.

GULF COAST WEATHER: About 3 to 5 hours of sunshine daily on the coast from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores through Friday with a chance of showers and storms. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s… the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 85 degrees.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…. enjoy the day!

Tags: ANC, showers

Category: Alabama's Weather