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Winter 2015-2016 Outlook

| October 15, 2015 @ 8:59 pm

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued the U.S. Winter Outlook covering the period from December, 2015, through February, 2016. The forecast favors cooler and wetter weather across much of the Southern Tier states with above-average temperatures most likely in the West and across Northern Tier states. This year’s El Niño, among the strongest on record and strongest since 1997-98, is expected to influence weather and climate patterns this winter by impacting the position of the Pacific jet stream.

The temperature outlook is here:
Outlook_map_temp2015_2F_2000

And here is the precipitation outlook:
Outlook_map_Precip_2015_2F_2000
Both images furnished by NOAA.

Mike Halpert, Deputy Director of NOAA’s CPC, can be heard in the video below. Halbert noted, “A strong El Niño is in place and should exert a strong influence over our weather this winter. While temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are favored, El Niño is not the only player. Cold-air outbreaks and snow storms will likely occur at times this winter. However, the frequency, number and intensity of these events cannot be predicted on a seasonal timescale.”

Other factors that often play a role in the winter weather include the Arctic Oscillation, which influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and nor’easters on the East Coast, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can impact the number of heavy rain storms in the Pacific Northwest.

Be sure to check out the video below.

It’s interesting to look back at the observations made at the Birmingham Shuttlesworth International Airport for the winter of 1997-1998. There were two snow events for that winter, both of them coming in December, 1997. One on December 14, 1997, in which one tenth of an inch of snow was recorded, and December 29, 1997, with snowfall of 1.60 inches. Anniston recorded 4.50 inches of snow on February 9, 1998.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather, Winter Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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