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Chilly Mornings but Warm Days

| October 17, 2015 @ 6:43 am

It’s a clear, crisp morning across North and Central Alabama. Our Skywatcher at Black Creek in Etowah County reported a temperature of 33 degrees around 5:30 am. Much of the rest of the area had temperatures in the 40s. And the air was quite dry, too, with dew points in the 30s which has prompted a Red Flag Warning for all of Alabama for today so avoid any outdoor burning. Clear skies will allow nearly full sun today, so I expect to see high temperatures climb to near the 70-degree mark.

As the surface high settles into the Ohio River Valley tonight and Sunday, we can expect another chilly morning Sunday with lows in the lower 40s. That means that once again those typically colder spots will dip into the middle and upper 30s. The MOS off the NAM run this morning actually prints out 39 for Birmingham. Another day with nearly full sunshine should see highs climb back to around 70 degrees.

For football enthusiasts, Alabama plays at Texas A&M this afternoon with a 2:30 pm kickoff in College Station where the sky will be sunny with about 84 degrees at kickoff. Temperatures will fall into the upper 70s by the final whistle.

Beautiful weather for beach goers all the way from Dauphin Island to Panama City Beach through the weekend and into much of next week. Expect sunny days and fair nights. Highs will be in the 70s and lows in the 50s. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

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We’re not quite done with hurricane season just yet and we have may some tropical mischief in the western Gulf of Mexico late in the next week. A broad area of low pressure located over the Gulf of Honduras and the adjacent land areas of the Yucatan was producing a large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms. With land interaction occurring, no significant development of this system should occur during the next couple of days as it moves slowly west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula. However, some limited development is possible Monday as the system emerges into the Bay of Campeche. This system will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula through the weekend. As we head into next week, the GFS and the European and in fairly good agreement with gradual strengthening of the system as it tracks slowly northwest toward South Texas. With a stubborn ridge bulging northward across the eastern US, this tropical system should travel northward across East Texas toward the end of the week with little if any impact on Alabama. But this is probably a good time to stay tuned for any changes in the forecast.

The upper trough moves off the East Coast on Monday as much of the eastern US comes under an upper ridge. That ridge and a surface high centered over eastern Virginia will keep our weather dry with a gradual warm up. Look for lows to be near 50 and highs in the middle 70s by mid-week.

The ridge becomes a fixture toward the end of the week, so warming will continue into next weekend with highs climbing into the upper 70s with the potential for some spots to reach the lower 80s. Right now, the current model output keeps next weekend dry and warm for the races at Talladega.

Looking out into week 2, aka voodoo country, the GFS keeps a ridge for us into the early part of the week, but it also introduces another tropical system coming through the Bahamas. That system recurves up along the East Coast of the US as yet another ridge builds over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico keeping the westerlies well north of Alabama.

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Headed for Oklahoma City, OK, later today for the annual meeting of the National Weather Association (NWA). We hosted the NWA annual meeting in 2011, so it will be interesting to see how someone else does it. And we are going to create a rare event with a live WeatherBrains podcast from the National Weather Center on Monday evening. If you follow WeatherBrains, it looks like the live show will be between 6:30 and 8:00 pm, a little earlier than we normally do the show. We should have a bang up list of meteorological notables in addition to almost all of the WeatherBrains crew. Be sure to check it out.

I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here on Sunday morning by 8 am or so, depending on how much jet/train lag I suffer. Enjoy this wonderful Fall weather! Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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