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Let the Warming Begin

| October 18, 2015 @ 7:12 am

After a couple of rather chilly days, especially in terms of morning lows that saw some frost in the northeast sections of Alabama, a warming trend begins for the next few days as the large upper trough moves off the East Coast and is replaced by an upper ridge.

The surface high pressure system located over the western part of the Ohio River Valley will continue to slide eastward through Tuesday but it will continue to maintain a hold across the Southeast US even into the end of the week. The area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan Peninsula this morning is forecast to move into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico and slowly move northward through next weekend. Both the GFS and the Euro keep the area of disturbed weather weak as it hugs the coast of Mexico and moves northward into Southeast Texas. Development of this system into a full fledged tropical storm appears less likely today, however, it remains a “stay tuned” situation.

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The deep trough over the western states will be in a battle with the upper ridge much of the week ahead. The result is that we should remain dry until early next week as these two players duke it out. Both the Euro and the GFS keep the rain west of us until early next week. There are some slight differences with these two models, the biggest difference appears to be in the timing of the arrival of wet weather for us with the Euro a bit faster than the GFS. Those planning a trip to Talladega next weekend should see dry weather though clouds may be more prevalent with lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s perhaps verging close to 80. The weather Sunday could see some showers if the faster Euro is right

By Sunday and Monday, the upper trough edges closer to Alabama bringing us under a wet southwesterly flow aloft. This is likely to spell a couple of days of wet weather for us, maybe more depending on how strong the ridge maintains a hold along the East Coast.

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Weather looks great along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida today and into this week. Highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 50s to start the week, but readings will be near 80 degrees in the afternoon for the rest of the week and lows in the 60s. It is a dry forecast through at least Friday, although showers may show up by late on Saturday into Sunday. Water temperatures are still in the middle 70s. Seas will be a little rougher than normal summer conditions give us, running some 2-3 feet all week. As a fairly strong easterly flow develops after midweek, they could increase further. The rip current threat will be moderate all week and we could even see some red flags by the weekend, so keep that in mind. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

Bill Murray and I managed the “Planes, Trains, and Automobiles” trip from Birmingham to Oklahoma City yesterday for the annual conference of the National Weather Association (NWA). Nice to travel with a friend, and great adventure using some many modes of travel including Amtrak from Fort Worth to Oklahoma City. Great lineup in the agenda for the meeting including the first ever appearance of most of the WeatherBrains gang – Aubrey being the odd man, or woman, out. James should be arriving here tonight, so I really have no idea when you can expect to see the next Weather Xtreme Video. He will probably have one early Monday morning but he is one of the first speakers at the NWA meeting, so there is a little mystery about the next edition. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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