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Patricia Strongest Hurricane Ever in Western Hemisphere

| October 23, 2015 @ 11:37 am

patricia fri 1630z avn-animated

Hurricane Patricia in the eastern Pacific underwent an incredible rapid intensification yesterday and overnight and aircraft reconnaissance found 175 knot winds (200 mph) just before 2 a.m. this morning. The central pressure was estimated at 880 millibars. I say estimated, because the dropsonde instrument used to record pressure, wind, temperature and other parameters did not splash down in the true center of the hurricane. The instrument recorded 885 mb and the crew estimated that the minimum pressure was 880 mb.

The winds make Patricia the strongest hurricane ever observed in the western hemisphere. Patricia is stronger than Wilma from 2005, which had the distinction of having the lowest central pressure observed in the Atlantic (882 millibars). And the top winds of 175 knots are certainly the strongest observed in any tropical cyclone around the world since 1970. Wind speeds were probably routinely overestimated prior to 1970. Patricia is stronger than Haiyan, which has 170 mph winds in the northwestern Pacific and Allen, which had 165 knot winds in 1980 in the North Atlantic.

Typhoon Tip still holds the distinction of having the minimum central pressure observed around the globe, with 870 millibars measured by reconnaissance on October 12, 1979. But Tip’s winds were 165 knots, short of Patricia’s record this morning.

Water temperatures underneath Patricia are running 30C, which is about 1 degree C warmer than they have been ever observed in the past 34 years. Cloud tops around the center have warmed a bit in the past couple of hours, perhaps indicating some weakening, but catastrophic conditions will occur along the coast near and east of where the center makes landfall. Fortunately, there are no major population centers in the swath where the maximum effects are expected to occur.

Landfall will come early this evening on the Mexican coast west of Manzanillo in the state of Jalisco. This is southeast of Puerto Vallarta, where they will experience tropical storm force winds in just a couple of hours and strong tropical force winds by 7-8 p.m. tonight. Hurricane conditions may remain just east of Puerto Vallarta.

It will turn to the north northeast over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. It should weaken to tropical storm force by tomorrow afternoon and become a remnant low by Sunday. It will bring torrential rains to Mexico and South Texas even as it weakens. The remnant low will get revitalize over Coastal Texas over the weekend and could bring heavy rain to southern and eastern Texas, as well as southern Louisiana. The WPC is calling for widespread 3-8 inch amounts from the eastern half of Texas all the way into Arkansas and western Mississippi and western Tennessee.

As the low moves slowly northeast, it may bring a nice rain event to Alabama by next Tuesday with an inch of rain possible.

Category: Tropical

About the Author ()

Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site's official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site's severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian

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