Warm November Afternoons

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS: For November 4 in Birmingham… the average high is 68; we will beat that by almost ten degrees today and tomorrow as the upper ridge continues across the Deep South. Clouds this morning will give way to some afternoon sunshine both days, and while a few isolated showers are certainly possible, many communities will stay dry.

But, with a high amplitude pattern, we know it is cold over on the other side of the nation. Parts of West Yellowstone National Park have received a foot of snow under a cold upper trough out west.

We note SPC has a rather large “slight risk” of severe weather defined for Thursday west of Alabama ahead of the upper trough as it lifts out.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Rain chances increase across Alabama as the upper trough and cold front get closer. Expect occasional showers and thunderstorms late Friday, Friday night, and Saturday. There will be breaks in the rain, but the wet weather could come at any time. A strong storm is not totally out of the question, but the overall severe weather threat in our state looks low with the main dynamic support well to the north.

Friday will stay very mild with a high well up in the 70s, but the high Saturday will be closer to 70 degrees because of clouds and showers.

The challenging part of the forecast is timing the back edge of the rain. The ECMWF is slower, and we will continue to stick with that solution and keep the chance of rain in the forecast through Saturday night.

SUNDAY: Cooler, drier air drops in from the north, we could see a few lingering showers Sunday morning, especially south of I-20, but the overall trend is toward drier weather with gradual clearing. The high will drop into the mid 60s, and by early Monday morning lows in the 38-44 degree range are likely.

NEXT WEEK: The weather looks cool and dry Monday through Wednesday… then a cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Doesn’t look like a severe weather threat at this point… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school playoff games in Alabama Friday night, showers and thunderstorms are a good possibility, and a few lightning delays are possible. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s at most stadiums.

The biggest college game in the nation is Saturday night when LSU takes on Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium (7:00p CT kickoff). A cold front will be just north of Tuscaloosa, and it is a close call with dry air trying to push in from the north. I think the “course of least regret” for now is to keep a chance of rain in the forecast for the game, especially during the first half. Can’t rule out a little thunder, but there is no risk of severe weather. Temperatures will fall through the 60s during the game, possibly reaching the 50s by the final whistle.

Auburn is in College Station to take on the Aggies of Texas A&M Saturday night (6:30p CT kickoff)… and the situation is similar to Tuscaloosa with dry air just north of the game site. We will mention the risk of a few lingering showers during the first half of the game, with temperatures falling through the 60s.

AT THE BEACH: Dry weather for the coast from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach today and tomorrow, then some risk of scattered showers or thunderstorms Friday through the weekend with a limited amount of sunshine. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

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I will be doing a weather program today for patients at Children’s of Alabama… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: ANC, mild

Category: Alabama's Weather