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Long Duration Severe Weather Threat Begins Today

| December 23, 2015 @ 6:36 am

If you have a few minutes, please take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and additional thoughts on what is to come. I promise a very good briefing, and if you are traveling you can see other parts of the country and know what to expect.

POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT: A significant, long duration severe weather event will begin in Alabama later today, extending through tomorrow. This is not unusual for this time of the year; the November/December tornado season is just as active as spring most years in Alabama. And, there is no reason for anxiety or worry; we have events like this often here in “Dixie alley”. It has just been unusually quiet for the past four years. We are Alabamians, and know how to get through these.

Here is what you can expect:

TIMING: Unfortunately we will need to open up a 24 hour window for severe weather in Alabama, from 3:00 this afternoon through 3:00 p.m. tomorrow. No, that doesn’t mean it will be storming at your house the entire time, but it means any storm that passes through could be severe.

Initially, severe storms will form over Northwest Alabama this afternoon between 3:00 and 5:00 p.m… with the area of storms slowly expanding to the east and south tonight. I should also mention we can’t rule out a severe storm before 3:00 p.m. over West Alabama.

The storms associated with this event will not be linear, they will be cellular, scattered, and random, meaning we can’t give you specific start/stop times for any one community. Just be ready for a severe storm at any time during this 24 hour period.

PLACEMENT: The highest risk of a strong/violent tornado will be over Northwest Alabama, where the “enhanced” severe weather risk is defined. But, the standard “slight risk” extends down into South Alabama, and storms there would also produce damaging straight line winds and a few tornadoes. Even in Southeast Alabama, a “marginal” severe weather risk is in place; the tornado threat is much lower there, but not zero.

I am very worried too many people are getting hung up with lines, colors, and risk categories (yes, I know there is some confusion with local weather services offices and the SPC using different colors, areas, and terms). Please know storms have no idea where those lines are drawn, and they can’t see colors on a map. They are just a guideline… everybody in Alabama needs to be vigilant and prepared for severe weather. It doesn’t matter where you live.

THREATS: In addition to tornadoes, severe storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging straight line winds. Heavy rain will fall from stronger storms, but we don’t expect enough rain for flooding problems.

CONFIDENCE: Forecast confidence is high. The convection near the Gulf Coast early this morning will move eastward, and all guidance shows no widespread activity near the coast to block the inflow up into the northern half of the state. And, all high resolution models are showing supercell storms firing over Northwest Alabama this afternoon with potential for rotation.

TOMORROW: All of Alabama is in a “marginal” severe weather risk tomorrow…

The threat of severe storms will continue; while the main dynamic support begins to lift away, the air will remain very unstable, and storms could produce damaging winds and some hail. And, the tornado threat is smaller, but certainly not zero. You will need to continue to pay close attention to the weather tomorrow. The overall threat will diminish after 3:00 p.m. as the dynamic support continues to fade.

WILL THIS BE LIKE APRIL 27, 2011? I actually choose not to answer that question any more. Of course, the answer is no; April 27, 2011 was a generational event. But please understand this; if all we have is one tornado in the entire state, and if that one tornado happens to come down your street, then that day is YOUR April 27.

CALL TO ACTION: If you are reading this, then you are aware of the situation and stay informed. My concern is for those who don’t pay attention; please tell your friends and neighbors about this threat. So many people are traveling this time of the year, making it harder to reach the masses. And, please see this post on things you need to think about and do in preparation for tomorrow’s severe weather threat. It answers questions about how to get warnings, apps, live coverage, etc.

CHRISTMAS DAY: The weather stays mostly cloudy and warm with a chance of showers, but no severe weather worries. Temperatures will reach the mid 70s tomorrow and Friday, very close to record levels. I don’t think we break the record tomorrow (77 set in 1964), but a decent chance we do break the record on Christmas Day, 74 set in 1987.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Warm, showery weather continues. More clouds than sun, a few passing showers, and highs in the mid 70s Saturday and Sunday. To the west, a major storm gathers strength Sunday, and that will bring the risk of strong storms back to Alabama late Sunday night into Monday.

It is simply way too early to know if we will deal with severe weather again with this feature, but it is certainly possible. And, back in the cold sector, a huge snow storm will set up from West Texas through parts of Oklahoma, with amounts of 10-20 inches likely. Travelers beware.

Cooler and drier air follows by the middle of next week.

AT THE BEACH: Warm, unsettled weather continues along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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We will have frequent updates on the blog over the next 36 hours, so check often!

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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