Tomorrow’s Severe Weather Risk
This discussion concerns the potential for severe weather in Alabama tomorrow; and also includes a look at college football game bowl weather in Birmingham and Dallas.
TOMORROW: The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has the standard “slight risk” of severe weather defined for much of Alabama…
A deep surface low/upper trough will be positioned northwest of Alabama tomorrow morning, and warm, moist, unstable air will remain in place.
Here my current thinking…
TIMING: This will be a daytime event. The main window for strong storms will come from roughly 9:00 a.m. until 6:00 p.m. The storms will move into West Alabama (Tuscaloosa, Fayette, etc) initially between 8 and 10:00. They, the I-65 corridor (Cullman, Birmingham Clanton, etc) will be impacted 11:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m.. and then into East Alabama (Anniston, Gadsden, etc) by mid to late afternoon.
MODES: The primary threat will come from damaging straight line winds, but a few isolated tornadoes are certainly possible. Lapse rates are somewhat marginal, and hopefully will prevent this from becoming a “major” situation, but with thunderstorms, you have to expect the unexpected. Below is the STP, or Significant Tornado Parameter, valid at 9:00 a.m…
FLOODING: Needless to say, the ground is completely saturated across Alabama, and many rivers are well out of their banks. A flash flood watch is now in effect for much of North and Central Alabama; rain tomorrow will be in the 1-2 inch range, and some flooding issues could develop, but not to the extreme levels we saw Christmas day.
Concerning river flooding… get detailed information here.
Much cooler, stable air rolls in on Tuesday, and we are done with severe weather problems for a while.
ATTENTION TRAVELERS: The system that will bring the threat of severe weather to Alabama tomorrow continues to bring a big variety of nasty weather to the U.S… see the map below.
COTTON BOWL: Alabama will take on Michigan State Thursday night at the “Cotton Bowl”, which is played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. The weather will be clear and cold; after a high of 44 Thursday afternoon temperatures will drop into the 30s quickly after sunset. Wind chill index values will drop into the 20s Thursday night.
BIRMINGHAM BOWL: Auburn plays Memphis at Legion Field Wednesday at 11:00. The sky will be cloudy, and unfortunately periods of rain are likely. It will be a cool day with temperatures hovering in the low to mid 50s during the game. Take the rain gear; but on the positive side we don’t expect any thunder, and certainly no risk of severe weather.
We will have updates on the blog… stay tuned…
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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