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Tornado Watch Trimmed; Wintry Mix in Arkansas

| January 21, 2016 @ 9:51 pm
GFS snowfall forecast valld for Saturday noon.

GFS snowfall forecast valld for Saturday noon.

Perry, Hale and Marengo counties have been removed from the tornado watch.

Lots of rain but no strong storms over the northern two thirds of Alabama this evening.

No warnings in effect anywhere in the country right now.

The watch remains in effect until 3 a.m. for the following counties are still in the watch: Autauga, Dallas, Lowndes, Montgomery and Pike

Moderate rain continues across much of Central Alabama. There is some embedded thunder and lightning, especially over Walker, Fayette, Tuscaloosa and Pickens Counties. The rainfall is being enhanced by a strong southerly low level jet on the front side of the developing mid-level low centered over the Arkansas/Louisiana border. Rainfall rates are generally less than one half inch per hour, but the heavier cells are between one half and one inch. Local flooding could be a problem.

Mixed wintry precipitation is occurring at this hour over Arkansas and northern Louisiana, a sign of things to come. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is falling in these areas. Snow rates could increase as colder air moves in at the surface and colder air aloft even leads to some thundersnow. It is 33F with light freezing rain in Little Rock.

We are beginning to pore through model data from the evening runs tonight. So far, the 4km NAM is in and it looks pretty much the same, except maybe a little slower. It puts more emphasis on convective snow showers on Saturday for widely scattered pockets of 1-2 inch snowfall amounts.

The GFS is out to 42 hours right now and it still shows snow starting during the day. It shows 1/2-1 inch in some areas by midnight tomorrow night.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather

About the Author ()

Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site's official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site's severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian

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