Alagasco Seven Day Forecast
Thursday April 24, 2014
Forecaster: James Spann
WARMER TEMPERATURES: Today will be another dry day for Alabama; the sky partly to mostly sunny with a high up in the low 80s, making it one of the warmest days so far in 2014. To the west, SPC has the standard “slight risk” of severe weather up from roughly Memphis down to Shreveport, but those storms will fizzle fast as they near Alabama late tonight.
TOMORROW: A band of showers and storms will enter the northwest corner of Alabama around midnight tonight, but they will weaken quickly as the upper air support lifts out… by the time they reach Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden during the pre-dawn hours (2:00 to 6:00 a.m.) there won’t be much left, and rain amounts will be light and spotty.
The day tomorrow looks nice with a partly sunny sky and a high around 80 degrees. I don’t expect any rain in the state after the early morning showers end.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: No doubt it will be the warmest weekend so far this year, with mid 80s Saturday and Sunday. The sky will be partly sunny both days, and the chance of rain looks very small. Not zero, but the chance of any one spot seeing an afternoon shower is only about one in ten, and barely worth mentioning in the forecast.
TO THE WEST: A very significant severe weather threat is shaping up for parts of the southern U.S. over the weekend over parts of North Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana.
ALABAMA’S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: Again I stress there is no way of knowing the small scale features now that will really determine the magnitude and scope of the severe weather risk in Alabama early next week, but parameters certainly look favorable for the dual risk of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain.
The latest model runs are a little faster, suggesting the main risk of strong to severe storms will come from about 3:00 p.m. Monday through 6:00 a.m. Tuesday. This could change again, however. But, if the storms do arrive Monday afternoon or Monday evening, the instability values would be higher, and the risk more substantial.
The forecast combination of instability, shear, wind fields, and lapse rates could suggest all modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.
BIRMINGHAM WEATHER RADIO OUTAGE: It is important to note the Birmingham NOAA Weather Radio transmitter is down. Received this note from John DeBlock at the NWS last night…
“Based on some late afternoon updates, we are now hopeful that the Birmingham transmitter may be back on the air before the threat of severe weather next week.
As you can imagine, pulling together any sort of repair on short notice is challenging in the best of circumstances. We are working closely with technicians and our regional and national management teams to do everything we can to return the transmitter to operations as soon as possible.”
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COLD SNAP NEXT WEEK: After the rain and storms, the weather turns much colder here Wednesday. Looks like we won’t get out of the 50s thanks to a cold core upper trough over the eastern third of the nation, and some of the colder pockets around here could visit the upper 30s by daybreak Thursday or Friday morning.
Take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details on this active weather pattern.