Alagasco Seven Day Forecast
Thursday August 21, 2014
Forecaster: James Spann
THE HEAT IS ON: Look for hot, mostly sunny, hazy days and fair nights through the weekend, with daily highs in the mid to upper 90s as an upper ridge builds over the region. There is always some risk of a thunderstorm on a hot summer afternoon in Alabama, but due to warm air aloft associated with an upper high, those storms will be few and far between, much like yesterday. This will be the hottest five day period of the summer so far.
NEXT WEEK: The upper high weakens, and we expect slowly falling heat levels, and a slow increase in the number of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs will drop to near 90 by the middle of the week.
AT THE BEACH: Very nice weather through the weekend, with mostly sunny days and fair nights from Panama City west to Gulf Shores and only isolated storms. Highs on the coast will be in the 87 to 90 degree range, with mid to upper 90s inland.
TROPICS: NHC is giving the disturbance in the Atlantic a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression during the next 48 hours; this system will move into the Caribbean tomorrow. Tropical and global models have shifted a bit to the right during the past 24 hours; most of them move this to a point near Hispaniola late this weekend. From there, it is still way too early to determine the ultimate destination and intensity, but most models hint it will remain east of the Gulf of Mexico.
We stress model guidance really can’t be trusted now since there is no well defined center, and model initialization is poor. We will just have to wait and watch in coming days, but if you have a trip planned to the Gulf Coast next week, or over the Labor Day weekend, no need to worry about this for now.