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Alagasco Seven Day Forecast

Thursday August 21, 2014
Forecaster: James Spann


THE HEAT IS ON: Look for hot, mostly sunny, hazy days and fair nights through the weekend, with daily highs in the mid to upper 90s as an upper ridge builds over the region. There is always some risk of a thunderstorm on a hot summer afternoon in Alabama, but due to warm air aloft associated with an upper high, those storms will be few and far between, much like yesterday. This will be the hottest five day period of the summer so far.

NEXT WEEK: The upper high weakens, and we expect slowly falling heat levels, and a slow increase in the number of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs will drop to near 90 by the middle of the week.

AT THE BEACH: Very nice weather through the weekend, with mostly sunny days and fair nights from Panama City west to Gulf Shores and only isolated storms. Highs on the coast will be in the 87 to 90 degree range, with mid to upper 90s inland.

TROPICS: NHC is giving the disturbance in the Atlantic a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression during the next 48 hours; this system will move into the Caribbean tomorrow. Tropical and global models have shifted a bit to the right during the past 24 hours; most of them move this to a point near Hispaniola late this weekend. From there, it is still way too early to determine the ultimate destination and intensity, but most models hint it will remain east of the Gulf of Mexico.

We stress model guidance really can’t be trusted now since there is no well defined center, and model initialization is poor. We will just have to wait and watch in coming days, but if you have a trip planned to the Gulf Coast next week, or over the Labor Day weekend, no need to worry about this for now.

7dayAlagasco3

Partly_Cloudy_Icon Thursday August 21
Hot with hazy sunshine. Only isolated afternoon storms.
Afternoon High 97
Wind: W 5-10 mph   Sun percentage: 75%   Hours of rain: 1/4
Rain potential: 0.10″   Severe weather threat: None
Partly_Cloudy_Icon Friday August 22
Partly to mostly sunny and hot. Only a small risk of a shower or storm.
Morning Low 76   Afternoon High 98
Wind: W 5-10 mph   Sun percentage: 75%   Hours of rain: 1/4
Rain potential: 0.10″   Severe weather threat: None
Partly_Cloudy_Icon Saturday August 23
Hot and humid with hazy sunshine. Storms remain very isolated.
Morning Low 77   Afternoon High 98
Wind: SW 5-10 mph   Sun percentage: 75%   Hours of rain: 1/4
Rain potential: 0.10″   Severe weather threat: None
Partly_Cloudy_Icon Sunday August 24
Hot, hazy, and humid. A brief afternoon storm in spots.
Morning Low 75   Afternoon High 97
Wind: SW 6-12 mph   Sun percentage: 70%   Hours of rain: 1/4
Rain potential: 0.15″   Severe weather threat: None
Sun_PM_T-Storms_Icon Monday August 25
Mixed sun and clouds. A few scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
Morning Low 75   Afternoon High 93
Wind: SW 6-12 mph   Sun percentage: 65%   Hours of rain: 1/2
Rain potential: 0.30″   Severe weather threat: None
Sun_PM_T-Storms_Icon Tuesday August 26
Partly sunny. An afternoon thunderstorm in scattered spots.
Morning Low 74   Afternoon High 92
Wind: SW 6-12 mph   Sun percentage: 65%   Hours of rain: 1/2
Rain potential: 0.30″   Severe weather threat: None
Sun_PM_T-Storms_Icon Wednesday August 27
Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers or storms.
Morning Low 73  Afternoon High 91
Wind: SW 6-12 mph   Sun percentage: 65%   Hours of rain: 1/2
Rain potential: 0.30″   Severe weather threat: None