Central Alabama’s Most Detailed Seven Day Forecast
Friday March 24, 2017
Forecaster: James Spann
ONE MORE DRY DAY: We will project a partly sunny sky across Alabama today with a high in the 70s this afternoon. While we enjoy a quiet day, severe storms are possible west of the state as an upper trough lifts out of the Rockies. Places like Tulsa, Shreveport, Houston, and Little Rock will have a risk of severe storms this afternoon and tonight.
ACTIVE DAY TOMORROW: A surface low will be near St. Louis tomorrow with Alabama in a moist, unstable airmass. SPC maintains the standard “slight risk” of severe storms over the western side of Alabama, with a “marginal risk” to the east.
It is important to point out that it won’t rain all day tomorrow, but when storms do pass through they will pack a punch.
TIMING: Understand we will certainly have chance of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm tomorrow morning, but the core threat of strong to severe storms will come from 12:00 noon until 9:00 p.m.
THREATS: Seems like damaging straight line winds will be the main issue; the highest shear values are displaced from the highest instability which should mitigate the overall tornado threat. But, an isolated tornado can’t be totally ruled out, especially over far West Alabama tomorrow afternoon. Stronger storms could also produce some hail.
RAIN: Rain totals should be in the 1/2 to 1 inch range; flooding is not expected.
SUNDAY: The surface low weakens and lifts northeast, but a moist, unstable airmass will remain over Alabama. We will forecast a mix of sun and clouds, we will need to introduce the chance of a few widely scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours due to the instability. In fact, SPC has the northeast corner of Alabama in a “marginal risk” for severe storms Sunday afternoon.
NEXT WEEK: Another upper trough/surface low will bring the chance of strong to severe storms to Alabama Monday, followed by yet another opportunity later in the week. The latest GFS hints that strong/severe storms will be possible Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Understand in an active pattern like this we simply need to take the waves one at a time; it is very hard to determine the overall magnitude of the threats and the timing several days out. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.
PUT AWAY THE WINTER CLOTHES? While we don’t see any sign of a late season cold snap into early April, I still expect one more flush of colder air toward mid April that will bring the threat of frost or a freeze.
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STORM SPOTTER TRAINING: We will be on the road through early April offering free storm spotter classes. We need more trained spotters in Alabama; by attending you can make the severe weather warning process better. No need to register; just come with a curious mind. And, there is no age limit… kids that love weather will enjoy it. You will never look at a storm the same again. Next week we are at Oxford Tuesday (at the Oxford Civic Center) and Jasper Thursday (at the Jasper Civic Center).