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Central Alabama’s Most Detailed Seven Day Forecast

Friday August 28, 2015
Forecaster: James Spann

ONE MORE DRY DAY: We stay dry across the great state of Alabama today… the sky will be partly to mostly sunny with a high close to 90 in most places.

THE WEEKEND: Moisture levels will rise, and we will mention the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms both tomorrow and Sunday. Otherwise, expect a mix of sun and clouds with a high in the mid 80s. Chance of any one spot getting wet both days is about one in three; best chance of showers will come during the afternoon and evening hours, but we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower as well.

NEXT WEEK: While eyes will be on potential Hurricane Erika just off the South Atlantic Coast of the U.S., our weather looks relatively quiet, with partly sunny days, fair nights, and only widely scattered showers. Highs next week will be in the 88 to 91 degree range, about average for the end of August in Alabama.

CHALLENING TROPICAL FORECAST: We have more questions than answers with Tropical Storm Erika this morning. Convection is displaced well to the east of the circulation center due to wind shear, and NHC estimates maximum sustained winds at 45 mph. Also, the center has reformed farther to the south, putting computer model data into question due to poor initialization.

Strengthening is not expected for the next three days due to shear, and interaction with Hispaniola. In fact, it is not totally out of the question that Erika dissipates like Danny last week. But, there is a pretty good chance it survives, and conditions will favor strengthening by Sunday and Monday. The official NHC track has been adjusted slightly to the left, putting Erika near the Florida Atlantic Coast Monday as a category one hurricane.

Odds are still high this won’t be a Gulf of Mexico storm, but the chance is not zero. Overall forecast confidence is low, and expect changes in coming days. Everyone from the Florida Peninsula up to the North Carolina Outer Banks will need to keep an eye on this one.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Mostly sunny weather continues today from Gulf Shores west to Panama City Beach; then for the weekend expect about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine both days with potential for a few scattered thunderstorms. A little too early for a specific Labor Day weekend forecast, but at the moment we don’t see anything that would suggest significant problems.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

Partly_Cloudy_Icon Friday August 28
Partly to mostly sunny.
Afternoon High 90
Wind: E 6-12 mph    Sun percentage: 75%    Hours of rain: 0
Rain potential: 0.00″    Severe weather threat: None
Sun_PM_T-Storms_Icon Saturday August 29
Partly sunny. Scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Morning Low 71   Afternoon High 86
Wind: SE 6-12 mph    Sun percentage: 60%    Hours of rain: 1/2
Rain potential: 0.30″    Severe weather threat: None
Sun_PM_T-Storms_Icon Sunday August 30
Mixed sun and clouds. A few scattered showers or storms.
Morning Low 69   Afternoon High 85
Wind: S 6-12 mph    Sun percentage: 60%    Hours of rain: 1/2
Rain potential: 0.35″    Severe weather threat: None
Partly_Cloudy_Icon Monday August 31
Partly sunny. Only widely scattered showers.
Morning Low 68   Afternoon High 90
Wind: NE 6-12 mph    Sun percentage: 70%    Hours of rain: 1/2
Rain potential: 0.15″    Severe weather threat: None
Partly_Cloudy_Icon Tuesday September 1
Sunshine through scattered clouds; showers will remain widely spaced.
Morning Low 70   Afternoon High 90
Wind: NE 7-14 mph   Sun percentage: 70%   Hours of rain: 1/2
Rain potential: 0.15″   Severe weather threat: None
Partly_Cloudy_Icon Wednesday September 2
Sunny during the morning; just a few isolated afternoon showers.
Morning Low 69    Afternoon High 89
Wind: NE 6-12 mph   Sun percentage: 70%   Hours of rain: 1/2
Rain potential: 0.20″   Severe weather threat: None
Partly_Cloudy_Icon Thursday September 3
Partly sunny. Showers remain isolated.
Morning Low 70   Afternoon High 89
Wind: NE 6-12 mph   Sun percentage: 70%   Hours of rain: 1/2
Rain potential: 0.10″   Severe weather threat: None