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Dry Today, Rain Tomorrow

| 2:22 pm September 27, 2014

For most of the state today, we are seeing partly sunny to mostly cloudy conditions. Temps are staying a few degrees cooler as well, with most locations hanging in the upper 70s this afternoon. It continues to be dry across the entire state, and we are not expecting to see much in the way rain for the rest of your Saturday. Any plans you have this evening should see mild and dry weather.

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However, the atmosphere over the state is in the process of becoming saturated as dew points are increasing from south to north across the state. Showers and storms have developed across the North-Central Gulf and these will move north overnight. As moisture levels continue to increase, we will begin to see an upper-level trough approaching the region, and this trough will be enhancing uplift across the Southeast. During the overnight hours, we are looking for showers and storms to develop and spread across much of the area. A soaking rain should set in tonight and last through much of Sunday as well into Monday. Model data continues to paint a soggy picture for Central Alabama as 1-2 inches of rain are in the forecast.

As we look as the latest 48 hour QPF output for rainfall totals from this evening until Monday evening, it shows much of the state will see plenty of rain. This afternoon’s model run has actually increased totals across the state, and rainfall totals closer to two inches are forecast, with possibly three inch totals in some areas. We will be watching for the threat of flooding in some localized areas, but as dry as it as been lately, we should be okay. Nevertheless, from tonight through Monday, be prepared for a soaking rain, and make sure you have the rain gear handy.

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Nice Day Before Rain Event

| 7:25 am September 27, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Central Alabama should remain dry today with a surface high pressure system located off to our northeast. The high, however, is also creating a wedge or cold air damming situation with moisture and clouds from the east working into East Central and Southeast Alabama. In the upper atmosphere, we have a complex pattern with a weakness in the 500 millibar flow that is working its way through the upper ridge while a major trough remains over the Southwest US. This weakness will work its way southeastward Sunday as the surface flow comes around to the south allowing moisture to increase and bring rain chances up rapidly Saturday night and early Sunday. Sunday and Sunday night look to be wet with heavy rain possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely across the area for a good soaking rain. Clouds and rain will also keep temperatures down with highs in the 70s.

Flooding is not expected to be a major issue because conditions have been dry. But the potential for some spots to get heavy rain means we’ll need to watch the flooding potential as the event unfolds. Isolated thunderstorms are possible but instability does not appear to be high enough for severe weather. SPC has a slight risk area over the Southwest US for Day 1 and none for Days 2 and 3.

For football interests today, Auburn hosts Louisiana Tech at 3:00 pm at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The sky will be mostly cloudy with a kickoff temperature near 80 degrees, dropping back into the 70s by the fourth quarter. Just a slight risk of a shower during the fourth quarter of the game. And UAB will host Florida International at 2:30 pm at Legion Field in Birmingham with a partly sunny sky and about 82 degrees at kickoff, and upper 70s by the final whistle.

Scattered showers are expected along the Gulf Coast today and the beach should be relatively wet Sunday with occasional showers and storms. Highs will hold in the 80s. Water temperatures are in the upper 70s.

The weak disturbance moves by us by Tuesday bringing an end to the rain. Weak ridging will develop behind this weak disturbance as the major trough over the Southwest US moves northeastward into the North Central US. This should bring us dry weather for the middle of the week from Tuesday to Thursday. Highs will be in the 80s with lows mainly in the 60s.

By Friday the deep trough to our west will be getting closer and an approaching cold front is likely to ramp up the rain chances for the end of the week. This could mean good rain chances for Friday night football games. This is far enough into the future that timing of the front could change.

Looking well into the future, the GFS is holding a sizable trough over the eastern half of the country through October 7th with the upper ridge building over the eastern US from the 8th through the 12th. By the end of the period around October 12th, another strong trough is forecast over the Rockies moving eastward. So it looks like October could be more active than we typically see.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

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I’ll have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted Sunday morning by 8 am or so. Enjoy the dry day before a wet Sunday. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Rain Before The Weekend Is Over

| 3:32 pm September 26, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

PLEASANT AFTERNOON: We have a mix of sun and clouds across Alabama this afternoon with temperatures around 80 degrees; a few sprinkles are on radar from near Lake Martin over to Opelika and Lafayette, but most of the state is dry.

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OUR WEEKEND: The daytime hours tomorrow still look rain-free with some sun at times and a high in the 79-83 degrees range. Then, after midnight tomorrow night, a big mass of rain should move into Alabama thanks to a short wave moving out of Texas, which spins up a broad surface low near the Gulf Coast. Sunday looks like a wet day statewide; precipitable water values are expected to exceed two inches, meaning the rain could be heavy in spots. We project average rain amounts of one inch, but some communities, especially south and east of Birmingham, could see two inches or even more.

Thunderstorms are possible Sunday, but severe weather is not expected. We won’t get out of the 70s because of clouds and rain.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z model set hints the rain should end very early Monday, with the sky becoming partly sunny by Monday afternoon. Then, the weather will be warm and dry Tuesday through Thursday with a good supply of sunshine each day with highs up in the mid 80s.

A cold front will bring a chance of showers one week from today (Friday October 3), then cooler and drier air moves in for the following weekend (October 4-5). See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Delightful conditions for high school games tonight; the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling through the 70s during the games, reaching the upper 60s by the final whistle. There is no chance of rain.

Auburn hosts Louisiana Tech Saturday (3:00p CT kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium… the sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 83 degrees, dropping back into the 70s by the fourth quarter.

UAB will host Florida International Saturday at 2:30p CT at Legion Field in Birmingham… partly sunny with about 84 degrees at kickoff, and upper 70s by the final whistle.

TROPICS: All remains quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend across the Atlantic basin.

AT THE BEACH: Showers and storms will begin to form tomorrow on the coast from Panama City over to Gulf Shores, and Sunday looks wet with showers and storms likely. Then, much of next week will be dry with sunny days and fair nights. Highs will be in the 70s over the weekend due to clouds and showers, but then back in the 80s next week.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the kids from Ashland Elementary in Clay County on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News… my next Weather Xtreme video will be produced early Monday morning by 7:00 a.m… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

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Rain Returns To Alabama Sunday

| 6:19 am September 26, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

STILL DRY TODAY: Expect sunshine today through high clouds and a high in the 80-85 degree range across the great state of Alabama. The high resolution HRRR model does show a few very small, isolated showers this afternoon, but the low levels are very dry and we won’t mention any significant risk of rain.

WEEKEND WEATHER CHANGES: I still believe most of the state will be dry during the day tomorrow with a mix of sun and clouds and a high between 82 and 85 degrees. I guess the mention of a “slight chance” of an late afternoon shower is appropriate as moisture levels begin to rise.

A significant rain event is likely late tomorrow night through Sunday night for our state as an upper trough moves in from the west, a broad surface low forms near the Gulf Coast, and deep moisture moves up from the south. Models still suggest precipitable water values of 2 inches or more, which suggests the rain could be heavy at times….

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The main window for rain opens up around midnight tomorrow night, with occasional rain and thunderstorms continuing for 24-36 hours. Average rain amounts of 1 inch can be expected, but clearly some places could see over two inches, especially south and east of Birmingham. The lighter rain amounts should be over the northwest counties of the state.

Severe storms are not expected, and we won’t get out of the 70s Sunday with clouds and rain.

NEXT WEEK: The rain should begin to exit the state Monday, but we will maintain the risk of lingering showers, especially during the morning hours. Then, dry and warm weather is likely Tuesday through Thursday with highs up in the mid 80s.

A significant cold front arrives Friday (one week from today, October 3) with a chance of showers, and it looks like the coolest air so far this fall will move in for the following weekend (October 4-5). See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Delightful conditions for high school games tonight; the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling through the 70s during the games, reaching the upper 60s by the final whistle. There is no chance of rain.

Auburn hosts Louisiana Tech Saturday (3:00p CT kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium… the sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 83 degrees, dropping back into the 70s by the fourth quarter. Just a slight risk of a shower during the fourth quarter of the game.

UAB will host Florida International Saturday at 2:30p CT at Legion Field in Birmingham… partly sunny with about 84 degrees at kickoff, and upper 70s by the final whistle. Small risk of a shower by the fourth quarter.

TROPICS: All remains quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend across the Atlantic basin.

GULF COAST WEATHER: A good supply of sunshine today from Panama City to Gulf Shores, but showers and storms develop tomorrow, becoming widespread Sunday with little, if any sunshine. Then, for next week, just a few lingering showers Monday, followed by dry weather Tuesday through Thursday. Highs will be generally in the 80s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day…

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Weather Changes This Weekend

| 2:19 pm September 25, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES: Very nice conditions across Alabama today with sunshine through high clouds and temperatures mostly in the low 80s. Humidity values low, and it feels very comfortable. The weather won’t change much tomorrow; partly to mostly sunny with a high between 81 and 84 degrees for most communities.

OUR WEEKEND: Some big changes, but the daytime hours Saturday look generally dry with a mix of sun and clouds. I do think we need to mention the chance of a shower late Saturday afternoon, however, with showers and storms becoming more likely Saturday night as we get some upper support moving in from the west.

Sunday looks like a very wet day for the state. A plume of very high precipitable water values is aimed at Alabama and Georgia…

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We will highlight rain and storms Sunday with potential for heavy rain at times; rain amounts of one to two inches look likely. A strong storm can’t be ruled out, but the chance of organized severe weather at this point looks low. We won’t get out of the 70s because of clouds and rain.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS keeps rain going over the state at least part of the day Monday, but drier air moves in for Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be warm during the mid-week period with highs in the mid 80s. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Delightful conditions for high school games tonight and tomorrow night; the sky will be clear with temperatures falling through the 70s during the games, reaching the upper 60s by the final whistle. There is no chance of rain.

Auburn hosts Louisiana Tech Saturday (3:00p CT kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium… the sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 83 degrees, dropping back into the 70s by the fourth quarter. We will need to mention a slight risk of a shower during the second half of the game.

UAB will host Florida International Saturday at 2:30p CT at Legion Field in Birmingham… partly sunny with about 84 degrees at kickoff, and upper 70s by the final whistle. Small risk of a shower by the fourth quarter.

TROPICS: NHC continues to identify a weak disturbance over the Central Atlantic, about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa, but conditions don’t favor any development.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Lots of sunshine on the coast today and tomorrow, but scattered showers are possible Saturday, followed by a relatively wet day Sunday with occasional showers and storms. Highs will hold in the 80s; sea water temperatures are near 80 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I enjoyed seeing all the kids this morning at Ashland Elementary School in Clay County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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Rain Returns To Alabama Sunday

| 6:04 am September 25, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

ANOTHER FINE FALL MORNING: Many North/Central Alabama communities are in the 50s again this morning with a clear sky and light wind. Dry, continental air continues to cover our state, and today and tomorrow will be dry with mostly sunny warm afternoons.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday looks generally dry and warm with a high in the mid 80s. We do note the NAM model tries to squeeze out a shower or two late in the day, but for now we won’t mention any significant risk of rain. But, on Sunday our weather turns wet with occasional showers and thunderstorms likely thanks to a short wave approaching from the west, and deeper moisture moving up from the south. Looks like we can expect rain amounts of around one inch, with potential for heavier amounts in a few spots. Severe storms are not expected Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: The main support moves east of Alabama Monday, so while there could be a few lingering showers, the bigger rains will be over Georgia and the Carolinas. We trend toward dry weather Tuesday, although the 00Z GFS still hints at clouds over North Alabama, and maybe even a lingering shower near the Georgia border. Wednesday and Thursday look dry, with potential for another rain event at the end of the week on Friday (October 3). See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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FOOTBALL WEATHER: Delightful conditions for high school games tonight and tomorrow night; the sky will be clear with temperatures falling through the 70s during the games, reaching the upper 60s by the final whistle. There is no chance of rain.

Auburn hosts Louisiana Tech Saturday (3:00p CT kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium… the sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 83 degrees, dropping back into the 70s by the fourth quarter.

UAB will host Florida International Saturday at 2:30p CT at Legion Field in Birmingham… partly sunny with about 84 degrees at kickoff, and upper 70s by the final whistle.

TROPICS: NHC identifies a weak disturbance over the Central Atlantic, about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa, but conditions don’t favor any development.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Lots of sunshine on the coast today and tomorrow, but scattered showers are possible Saturday, followed by a relatively wet day Sunday with occasional showers and storms. Highs will hold in the 80s; the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 78 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program this morning at Ashland Elementary School in Clay County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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Warm Afternoons, Pleasant Nights

| 1:29 pm September 24, 2014

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today; I am traveling to Atlanta where I will be recording two episodes of “Weather Geeks” that will air on the Weather Channel later this month and in early October**

SUNNY DAY: Nothing but severe clear across the great state of Alabama this afternoon; temperatures are headed toward the low 80s and the humidity levels will remain low. We don’t expect much change through Friday; mostly sunny warm days and fair pleasant nights with a slow warming trend. We should reach the mid 80s by Friday afternoon.

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THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday still looks warm and dry with a partly sunny sky and a high in the mid 80s. But, the 12Z GFS looks pretty wet for Sunday with a nice short wave moving in from the west, and moist air moving up from the south. We will forecast occasional showers and storms Sunday with a mostly cloudy sky and a high in the mid to upper 70s.

NEXT WEEK: Energy moves east of Alabama Monday, and while a few lingering showers are possible over the eastern counties, a decent part of the day should be dry. Then, dry weather is likely for mid-week Tuesday through Thursday with highs in the low 80s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Delightful conditions for high school games tomorrow and Friday nights; the sky will be clear with temperatures falling through the 70s during the games, reaching the upper 60s by the final whistle. There is no chance of rain.

Auburn hosts Louisiana Tech Saturday (3:00p CT kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium… the sky will be partly to mostly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 83 degrees, dropping back into the 70s by the fourth quarter.

UAB will host Florida International Saturday at 2:30p CT at Legion Field in Birmingham… partly sunny with about 84 degrees at kickoff, and upper 70s by the final whistle. No threat of rain.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is very quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected through the week.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Mostly sunny days and fair nights through Friday from Panama City over to Gulf Shores. Then, a shower is possible in a few spots Saturday, with showers and storms becoming more likely on the coast Sunday. Highs will be in the 80s with sea water temperatures mostly in the mid 80s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I enjoyed seeing the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th graders today at Blountsville Elementary… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM tomorrow at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. And, the next Weather Xtreme video will be here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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Slow Warming Trend Through Friday

| 5:54 am September 24, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

ANOTHER NICE MORNING: Most North/Central Alabama communities are in the 50s early this morning with a clear sky and light wind. Expect a good supply of sunshine today with a high around 80 degrees as the fie early fall weather continues.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Dry with a slow warming trend; we will be in the mid 80s by Friday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday is still looking warm and dry with a high in the mid 80s and a partly sunny sky, but a short wave and increasing moisture levels will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms back to the state Sunday. Some places won’t make it out of the 70s Sunday due to clouds and occasional showers.

NEXT WEEK: The 00Z GFS hints the best chance of rain will shift east of Alabama Monday, followed by dry and warm weather Tuesday through Thursday. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Delightful conditions for high school games tomorrow and Friday nights; the sky will be clear with temperatures falling through the 70s during the games, reaching the upper 60s by the final whistle. There is no chance of rain.

Auburn hosts Louisiana Tech Saturday (3:00p CT kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium… the sky will be partly to mostly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 83 degrees, dropping back into the 70s by the fourth quarter.

UAB will host Florida International Saturday at 2:30p CT at Legion Field in Birmingham… partly sunny with about 84 degrees at kickoff, and upper 70s by the final whistle. No threat of rain.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is very quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected through the week.

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GULF COAST WEATHER: Sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores through Friday. A few scattered showers will show up this weekend, but there will still be a decent amount of sunshine. Highs will remain in the 80s, and sea water temperatures are mostly in the mid 80s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Twitter
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I will be doing a weather program this morning at Blountsville Elementary School in Blount County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day…

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