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Clearing Later Today; Very Cold Next Week

| 6:05 am February 3, 2016

RADAR CHECK: Rain has ended across Northwest Alabama early this morning; the heavier storms are now south and east of Montgomery.

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A flash flood watch continues for Southeast Alabama, where an additional 1-2 inches of rain is likely. But, for North/Central Alabama, we will forecast a clearing sky later today as drier air works in from the north. We project a high in the low to mid 60s today.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: These two days will be dry with a good supply of sunshine, but sharply cooler. The high will be in the low 50s, and we drop into the upper 20s by daybreak Friday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will stay cool and dry with a high in the 50s; the latest global global model runs (both the American and European) now keep a low in the Gulf of Mexico far enough away not to impact Alabama Sunday… so we have removed any risk of rain Sunday, and forecast a mostly sunny day with a high in the 50s. Bottom line is that cool, dry weather continues over the weekend.

ARCTIC AIR BLAST NEXT WEEK: Sure looks like we will deal with perhaps the coldest air so far this winter next week. It begins to arrive Tuesday; the day will be mostly cloudy with a sharp north breeze, and a few snow flurries or showers are possible over the northern third of the state. We will have a hard time getting out of the 30s.

Wednesday will be the coldest day; a decent chance North/Central Alabama communities stay below freezing all day, and a north wind will keep wind chill values in the teens despite a partly sunny sky.

And, by Thursday morning, many spots across North Alabama will drop into the teens. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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Flash Flood Warning: Perry/Dallas

| 2:56 am February 3, 2016

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA…
WESTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 900 AM CST WEDNESDAY

* AT 253 AM CST…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING COULD ALREADY BE OCCURRING OR WILL
BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
MARION…ORRVILLE…BOGUE CHITTO…MARION JUNCTION…VAIDEN…
CENTRAL MILLS…POTTER STATION…DANNELLY RESERVOIR…VAIDEN FIELD
AIRPORT…SPROTT…SAFFORD…RADFORD…HAMBURG…OAKMULGEE…
SUTTLE…CRUMPTONIA…HAZEN…JUDSON COLLEGE AND WHITES BLUFF.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

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Flooding Concerns in Birmingham Metro

| 12:52 am February 3, 2016

We continue to monitor Jefferson County for flooding concerns. The NWS has issued an Areal Flood Advisory for Bibb, Jefferson, Shelby [AL] till 4:45 AM CST.

Village Creek in Ensley is at 8.33 feet. That is just below the level where minor flooding occurs.

Here is a graph of the gauge:

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Here is the NWS Birmingham’s experimental inundation map:

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Five Mile Creek is near bankful over northern Jefferson County as well.

Our line of storms is approaching the City of Birmingham at this hour. Very heavy rains and gusty winds will accompany it.

Winds gusted to 46 mph as the line of storms passed Tuscaloosa, so scattered wind damage is possible.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 4 a.m.

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Starting to Trim Counties from Watch

| 12:12 am February 3, 2016

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The tornado watch has been canceled for Greene and Pickens Counties.

The tornado watch continues for Autauga, Bibb, Chilton, Dallas, Hale, Jefferson, Lowndes, Marengo, Perry, Shelby, Tuscaloosa till 4:00 AM CST.

As the main line of storms passes your location, the severe weather threat will be over. That line extends from Central Winston to western Walker to western Tuscaloosa Counties. It is pushing eastward at about 30-35 mph.

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Flash Flood Warning: Winston, Walker, Marion, Fayette and Lamar

| 11:57 pm February 2, 2016

2-4 inches of rain has fallen across the warned counties.

Flash flooding is being reported in many locations.

The left side of the graphic shows accumulated rainfall. The white areas represent rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches.

The right side panel shows the current radar.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
WINSTON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA…
FAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
LAMAR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
MARION COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA…
WALKER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 545 AM CST

* AT 1151 PM CST…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO
THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME LOCATIONS IN
LAMAR…MARION…AND WINSTON COUNTIES. FLASH FLOODING HAS ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS…AND COULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD SHORTLY. AREAS DOWNSTREAM IN WALKER COUNTY SHOULD PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE STORMS MOVING IN…AS THEY WILL PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THAT COULD ALSO LEAD TO
FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
JASPER…HAMILTON…WINFIELD…FAYETTE…HALEYVILLE…CORDOVA…
CARBON HILL…VERNON…SULLIGENT…MILLPORT…LYNN…ARLEY…
GUIN…HACKLEBURG…BERRY…DOUBLE SPRINGS…PARRISH…BRILLIANT…
OAKMAN AND ADDISON.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

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Late Night Analysis

| 11:45 pm February 2, 2016
Click image to enlarge.

Click image to enlarge.

As we approach the witching hour tonight, the end is finally in sight.

The line of thunderstorms over eastern Mississippi has intensified as our cold front start to surge eastward. The low level jet at 5,000 feet has intensified in the past few hours and it providing high levels of low level shear.

In addition, instabilities have spiked slightly, as temperatures aloft have decreased over the past couple of hours over West Alabama.

The line will reach Tuscaloosa/Jasper by 12:30, Cullman by 12:45, Birmingham by 1:30 and Gadsden by a little after two.

The threat of spin up tornadoes is high from Livingston to Fayette, especially where there are kinks in the line. Damaging winds are also possible.

To the east, heavy storms are moving into Shelby County. They are part of a line of showers and storms that extends from Wilcox and Dallas Counties into western Chilton, Shelby, Jefferson and Blount Counties. These storms are not severe at this time, but still could do so.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 4 a.m. for areas along and west of I-65 and along and south of I-20.

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Radar Confirmed Tornado in Pickens County

| 11:10 pm February 2, 2016

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The NWS has issued a tornado warning for Pickens [AL] till 11:30 PM CST

…AT 1104 PM CST…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ETHELSVILLE…OR 7 MILES WEST OF REFORM… MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

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Tornado Warning for Perry County

| 10:39 pm February 2, 2016

Radar indicates a possible tornado east of Marion.

It is moving NE at 45 mph.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 1130 PM CST

* AT 1038 PM CST…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF MARION…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

HAZARD…TORNADO.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT…FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS…WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
OAKMULGEE…SUTTLE AND RADFORD.

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New Tornado Watch Until 4 a.m.

| 10:02 pm February 2, 2016

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The watch includes counties along I-65 and to the west.

The watch includes Bibb, Chilton, Dallas, Greene, Hale, Jefferson, Marengo, Perry, Pickens, Shelby, Sumter, Tuscaloosa, Autauga and Lowndes until 4:00 AM CST.

Watching a strong storm moving out of Hale County into Bibb County. It does have some rotation with it. It is not out of the question that we could see additional spin up tornadoes or damaging winds through the early morning hours as there is some instability and very strong wind shear.

There is still a tremendous amount of shower and thunderstorm activity extending back into southeastern Louisiana at this hour. It will continue to push slowly eastward, not clearing the I-59 corridor until after 3 a.m.

Heavy rainfall will also be a problem. 1.57 inches at Birmingham, and inches has fallen across much of Pickens, Lamar, Fayette, Marion and Winston Counties.

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9:45 Notes

| 9:48 pm February 2, 2016

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The tornado watch will likely be extended past 10 p.m. for at least some of the counties.

Beginning to get concerned about flooding, especially across parts of Lamar, Marion, Fayette and Winston Counties. An areal flood advisory has been issued for parts of the aforementioned counties.

Ahead of the main rain area, which extends out of eastern Mississippi across Northwest Alabama, an area of confluence is funneling heavy showers noth northeastward from Southwest Alabama all the way through the Birmingham Metro area and on into Northeast Alabama.

There is still 500-750 joules of instability over Pickens and Tuscaloosa Counties, with less than 250 joules elsewhere across almost all of North and Central Alabama. But shear values continue to be off the charts with over 300 m2/s2 of low level helicity. Bulk shear is high as well, at over 50 knots. And we are watching an increasing low level jet ramping up over eastern Mississippi and Northwest Alabama. All this keeps us concerned that there could be isolated tornadoes and a damaging wind threat.

A new severe thunderstorm warning was just issued for Noxubee, Neshoba and Winston Counties.

A tornado was reported at 8:15 p.m. just south of Beaverton in Lamar County. Trees are down across that area.

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Possibly Tornadic Storm May Affect Lamar County

| 8:42 pm February 2, 2016

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We are tracking a strong storm near Steens MS, south of Calendonia, that has had rotation with it.

A tornado warning was in effect for Lowndes County, MS, but it has since expired. The cell will rotate up into Lamar County, passing near Melborne and Star, but likely staying west of Fernbank.

The rotation has weakened, but we continue to closely monitor the storm.

To the southwest, additional strong storms are occurring near Philadelphia MS. There are a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings on these storms. They will eventually move into Pickens and Lamar Counties in West Alabama.

Rainfall amounts have totaled 1-3 inches across West Alabama from northern Pickens through much of Lamar, Fayette and into Marion and Winston Counties. Additional rainfall amounts may cause some localized flooding.

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Tornado Warning Lamar/Marion Counties until 9PM

| 8:14 pm February 2, 2016
2-2-2016 8-26-59 PM

Click image to enlarge.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
EASTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 900 PM CST

* AT 813 PM CST…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BEAVERTON…OR 7 MILES EAST OF
SULLIGENT…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD…TORNADO.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT…FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS…WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR…
GUIN AND GU-WIN AROUND 825 PM CST.
HAMILTON AROUND 830 PM CST.
BRINN AND LAKE BUTTAHATCHEE AROUND 845 PM CST.
HACKLEBURG AROUND 850 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
TWIN…PINEY GROVE…PIKEVILLE…UPPER BEAR CREEK RESERVOIR…MARION
COUNTY PUBLIC LAKE…BEAR CREEK…PEARCES MILL AND TESSNER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS…IN A
MOBILE HOME…OR IN A VEHICLE…MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

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