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Not Your Typical Spring

| 7:38 am April 19, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

The overall weather pattern continues to be an active one, but I sure would not classify this month as your typical April! The high temperature at the Birmingham Shuttlesworth International Airport yesterday barely made it out of the 50s with a 61 which is 14 degrees below our seasonal average for this date. The low for the day was only 1 degree above, so we saw very little diurnal change in the temperature. Plus we got a bit more rain bringing us to a total which is nearly 4 inches above the 30-year average rainfall for the month – with 11 days still left to go.

The surface low along with the upper level cold core low which brought us the soaking rain yesterday continues to bring rain to much of the eastern half of Alabama this morning. Both lows should continue to push eastward, so we should see a slow decrease in the light rain which is now falling over areas generally east of Interstate 65. Temperatures will be problematic with lower 70s possible from Birmingham westward while areas east of Birmingham could remain shrouded in clouds holding temperatures in the 60s.

Surface high pressure will fill in behind the surface and upper lows on Sunday bringing us a beautiful Easter Sunday. We’ll see a few late morning and afternoon clouds, but the sunshine will feel good with temperatures climbing into the middle 70s for most of us.

Monday will be a transitional day with clouds on the increase ahead of the next upper trough and surface cold front. The front should pass through Central Alabama on Tuesday bringing us the next good chance of showers. The afternoon highs should reach the upper 70s. The front should move through briskly as the upper trough moves quickly off the East Coast and we come under ridging aloft for Wednesday and Thursday. Yet another strong upper trough approaches Alabama on Thursday and Friday bringing another cold front into the picture. Timing of this system seems to befuddle the models as the GFS has continued to oscillate back and forth between Friday and Saturday on the frontal passage and attendant rain chances. The GFS is also more aggressive with the rain chances and the amounts than the European, so the forecast remains somewhat fluid at the moment. But whether it is Friday or Saturday, it looks like we’ll have a reasonably good chance at some showers before clearing out for next Sunday. Temperatures appear to be seasonal with highs in the upper 70s and morning lows mainly in the 50s.

Looking into voodoo country, I’d describe the model solutions as complex. Another shot at rain comes around the 29th and then the GFS goes off the scale with a huge Omega block ridge situated along the Mississippi River. The ridge is so strong it does seem exaggerated, so my confidence in the solution is pretty low. The Omega ridge pattern evolves by May 4th with a trough undercutting the huge ridge. Definitely a stay tuned on this one situation.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Ashley Brand
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I’ll be handling the weekend weather duties on ABC 3340 this weekend, so be sure to check in with our 10 pm newscast tonight for the latest forecast on your weather. The 10 pm newscast will actually come a little late due to special programming on ABC. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted first thing on Easter morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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An Evening Update

| 7:48 pm April 18, 2014

It has been a rainy, cloudy and cool day across Central Alabama, with a chilly easterly breeze thrown in for good measure. Highs in the I-20 corridor were generally in the upper 50s. The high in Tuscaloosa was 60F. When it was raining, it was even cooler, with the mercury falling back into the lower 50s. It never got out of the 40s on Mount Cheaha, Alabama’s highest point.

Rainfall amounts were generally light across our part of the state, including .20″ at Tuscaloosa and 0.19″ at Birmingham. 0.52″ has fallen at Anniston through 7 p.m., and it was still raining.

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.

While rainfall amounts over North Central Alabama were light today, it was a different story to the south, as moisture from the Gulf rode up an over a dome of high pressure extending down from New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Montgomery got over an inch and a half (1.62″), but nearer the coast, amounts were dramatically higher. Pensacola picked up nearly four inches of rain and Destin over inches. Florala, on the Alabama/Florida border picked up over five inches! Flooding was reported in numerous spots across Walton County, Florida, just over the border between Florala and DeFuniak Springs. All in all, it was not a good day to be driving to Destin on US-331. Beachgoers will encounter improving conditions today and fine weather Sunday and Monday.

At 7:45 p.m., light to moderate rain continues over the eastern part of Alabama, with the heaviest precipitation over Randolph, Chambers and eastern Lee Counties. It was raining moderately in Tennant and Roanoke.

We will be tracking a developing upper level low along the Louisiana/Mississippi border as it moves east tonight. It could increase rainfall again over Central Alabama during the overnight hours, but there is a lot of uncertainty in that between the short term models. Lows will be near 50F.

Eastern Alabama will have clouds tomorrow and a chance of a few showers because of the effect of that upper low. Western areas (places like Tuscaloosa, Hamilton and Jasper will experience a good supply of sunshine. I-65 communities from Cullman to Birmingham to Clanton will be in the transition zone. Areas west of I-65 will warm well into the 70s Saturday afternoon, eastern areas will be in the 60s.

Saturday night lows will be near 50F, so sunrise services will be mostly clear with a little fog, but dry and cool with readings in the upper 40s to near 50F. Afternoon readings Sunday will be in the middle 70s across the area.

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Full Sunshine By Sunday

| 3:19 pm April 18, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: The bulk of the rain in Alabama this afternoon (as of 2:30 p.m.) is east of a line from Gadsden to Clanton to Monroeville…

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Temperatures are below forecast, holding in the 50s in many places across North/Central Alabama. We should be in the mid 70s here in mid April.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Clouds will hang tough over Alabama tonight, and rain will continue in areas south and east of Birmingham. Then, during the day tomorrow, the weather will vary greatly across Alabama… your conditions will all depend on where you live.

For far West and North Alabama… places like Muscle Shoals, Fayette, Tuscaloosa, and Vernon, the sky should become mostly sunny during the day and the high will be in the low 70s. However, over Central and East Alabama, clouds will hang tough much of the day and a little light rain and drizzle is possible. Where clouds linger, highs will be in the 60s.

Easter Sunday will be mostly sunny with a high well into the 70s.

NEXT WEEK: Monday still looks warm and dry… a few showers are possible Tuesday with a weak surface front, but nothing heavy and no severe weather. Then, an upper ridge will bring the warmest weather so far this year Wednesday through Friday with low to mid 80s.

A vigorous storm system will being the risk of strong to severe storms to parts of the Great Plains by Wednesday or Thursday of next week, but for now it looks like the main energy associated with this will pass well to the north of Alabama. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

AT THE BEACH: Rain is likely tonight in the Florida Panhandle; some flooding is possible. The weather begins to improve with clearing late in the day tomorrow or tomorrow night, and Sunday will be sunny. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the 60s today, with low 70s tomorrow and Sunday. A pretty decent part of next week will be dry, although a few widely scattered showers could show up Tuesday. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this afternoon is 65 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I had a great time today visiting the 3rd graders at Englewood Elementary in Tuscaloosa… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here Monday morning at 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

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Lots of Moisture across the State

| 9:14 am April 18, 2014

An interesting looking radar across Central Alabama this morning. With an area of low pressure over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, we are seeing moisture move north from the Gulf in all levels of the atmosphere. The upper-level flow over the region is also enhancing this moisture transport. In the lower-levels, the low pressure is having more of an influence and we can see that on the radar.

A look below shows the rain showers over Central Alabama are moving in different directions depending on where you are located and also the height of the radar beam above the surface. Areas between Interstate 20 and Interstate 85 in Central Alabama are seeing the showers move from east to west. South of the Montgomery area, it seems the dominant flow is to the north. North of the Birmingham Metro, we are seeing a more southwesterly movement of the showers. Finally over western portions of the state, in the upper levels the showers are moving north, but the lower levels it appears the majority of the activity is moving to the south.

What does all this mean? It shows that in every level of the atmosphere there is an abundance of moisture thanks to the area of low pressure in the Gulf spreading moisture north. It also means the clouds and rain will hang around throughout the day and that many areas of the state will have a nice, soaking rain today.

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Wet Weather Returns To Alabama

| 6:04 am April 18, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: At daybreak rain is widespread across Alabama generally along and south of I-20, thanks to a surface forming over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Rain is likely today for the southern two-thirds of the state, with the heavier totals over South Alabama, where a flash flood watch is in effect for the zone from Mobile over to Dothan. Rain amounts down that way could exceed two inches… up this way, along the I-20 corridor, rain totals will be generally under 1/2 inch. And, to the north, very little rain is expected over the Tennessee Valley region of extreme North Alabama.

This is the projected radar reflectivity at 3:00 this afternoon via the high resolution NAM…

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You can clearly see the amount of rain you get today all depends on where you are. Lots of rain south and east of Birmingham… very little north and west of the city. We won’t get past the low 60s today due to clouds and rain.

TOMORROW: Again, the weather all depends on where you live. The sky will clear over far West and North Alabama, near the Mississippi and Tennessee borders, but most of Alabama will have stubborn clouds thanks to an upper low to the east. And, periods of rain will continue over the eastern counties of the state, generally east of I-65. Here is the NAM, valid at 4:00 p.m. tomorrow…

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Not sure we can get out of the cool 60s tomorrow where the clouds linger.

A-DAY FOOTBALL GAMES TOMORROW: For the spring A-Day football games tomorrow… Auburn will be cloudy and cool with some light rain; kickoff temperature near 65 degrees. Over in Tuscaloosa, the weather will be dry, and the sun might peek out at times; kickoff temperature there close to 70 degrees.?

EASTER SUNDAY: This will be a nice day statewide, with ample sunshine and a high in the upper 70s.

NEXT WEEK: Monday will be warm and dry with a high around 80, then a few showers are possible Tuesday ahead of a weak front. Then, an upper ridge will bring warm and dry weather Wednesday through Friday with highs up in the low to mid 80s… the warmest weather so far this year.

A vigorous storm system will being the risk of strong to severe storms to parts of the Great Plains by Wednesday or Thursday of next week, but for now it looks like the main energy associated with this will pass well to the north of Alabama. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

AT THE BEACH: Rain is likely through tonight from Panama City over to Gulf Shores, with potential for heavy rain, especially for communities in the Florida Panhandle. The weather begins to improve with clearing late in the day tomorrow or tomorrow night, and Sunday will be sunny. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the 60s today, with low 70s tomorrow and Sunday. A pretty decent part of next week will be dry, although a few widely scattered showers could show up Tuesday. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this morning is 64 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program this morning at Englewood Elementary School in Tuscaloosa… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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Clouds, Some Rain On The Way

| 2:29 pm April 17, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WEATHER CHANGES AHEAD: Most of Alabama is enjoying sunshine through scattered clouds this afternoon; temperatures are in the mid 60s in most places…. well below the average high of 75 for April 17. Clouds will thicken quickly tonight in advance of a developing storm system over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico.

RAIN AT TIMES TOMORROW: The surface low over the northern Gulf will spread rain up into Alabama after midnight tonight, and some rain is very possible as early as 4:00 or 5:00 a.m. over much of the state. We will forecast periods of rain throughout the day tomorrow, but keep in mind the heaviest and most widespread rain will fall over the southern counties of Alabama. A flash flood watch is in effect for the southeast tip of the state around Dothan, where rain amounts of over two inches are possible through Saturday. It will be a cool day with a high only in the low 60s.

SATURDAY: Unfortunately we will have to make some major forecast changes for East and South Alabama as the weekend begins. A deep upper low is forecast to be over North Florida, and the flow of Atlantic moisture will keep clouds over much of the state Saturday, and we will need now to insert the chance of rain for areas mainly east and south of Birmingham.

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For places like Anniston, Sylacauga, Ashland, Alex City, and Lake Martin, we will mention a good chance of lingering rain Saturday, especially during the morning hours. Birmingham might even see some light rain Saturday morning. North and West Alabama should be dry Saturday, but clouds could be an issue. Unfortunately now it looks like the best chance of seeing some sunshine will be near the Mississippi and Tennessee borders.

And, we will need to lower forecast highs Saturday over East and South Alabama; doubtful those parts of the state will get out of the 60s due to lingering clouds and rain. West and North Alabama should see low 70s.

EASTER SUNDAY: Confidence is high it will be a beautiful day, with ample sunshine and a high in the upper 70s.

NEXT WEEK: We will continue to mention a chance of showers on Tuesday with a weak surface front, then we should enjoy the warmest weather so far this year Wednesday through Friday with dry conditions and highs up in the middle 80s thanks to an upper ridge building over the region.

AT THE BEACH: Rain is likely tomorrow and tomorrow night from Panama City over to Gulf Shores, with potential for heavy rain, especially for communities in the Florida Panhandle. The weather begins to improve with clearing late in the day Saturday or Saturday night, and Sunday will be sunny. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the 60s tomorrow, with low 70s Saturday and Sunday. A pretty decent part of next week will be dry, although a few widely scattered showers could show up Tuesday. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this afternoon is 64 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Twitter
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I had a great time today visiting with the first graders at Creekview Elementary in Alabaster… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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Your Weekly U.S. Drought Monitor Update

| 10:28 am April 17, 2014

Little change in the drought situation across the West. We continue to see a lot of dry areas across the Plains, Texas, the Southwest, and along the West Coast, with those exceptional drought conditions persisting in portions of California, Nevada, Texas, Oklahoma, and Colorado.

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For Alabama, another soaking rain earlier this week has allowed many locations to continue to avoid abnormally dry or drought conditions.

The only part of the state that is still experiencing drought and abnormally dry conditions is in the northwestern part of the state. Moderate drought conditions are occurring in portions of Lauderdale, Colbert, and Franklin Counties, where it amounts to 1.32% of the state being affected. That is the same percentage that was being affected last week.

The abnormally dry conditions continue to impact locations in Lauderdale, Limestone, Lawrence, Colbert, and Franklin Counties. These conditions covered 3.82% of the state last week. This week, it has increased only slightly by 0.16%  to now cover 3.98% of the state.

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Click image to enlarge.

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Warmer Today; Some Rain Tomorrow

| 6:08 am April 17, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WARM-UP CONTINUES: We begin the day well above freezing; most North/Central Alabama communities are in the 40s at daybreak with a clear sky. The day ahead will be dry… the sky partly to mostly sunny with a high in the upper 60s. Clouds will thicken tonight.

SOME RAIN TOMORROW: A rather dynamic weather system will impact our state tomorrow with clouds and rain, but the heaviest and most widespread rain will come over the southern counties as a surface low forms over the Northeast Gulf of Mexico. The high resolution NAM suggests some heavy rain is possible over Southeast Alabama…

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The NWS in Tallahassee has issued a flash flood watch for the southeast corner of our state, including Dothan, where rain amounts could exceed two inches.

Up our way, rain tomorrow is very possible, but it will be light and spotty. Rain amounts for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden will be generally under a tenth of an inch, and some communities north of Birmingham won’t see any rain at all. The day tomorrow will be cloudy and cool with a high in the low to mid 60s thanks to a cool easterly flow on top of the surface low to the south.

EASTER WEEKEND: Still looks great. The surface low off the southern Atlantic coast will move northeast, and we will be in a dry airmass. Lots of sun Saturday and Sunday; we reach the mid 70s Saturday, and the high Sunday will be near 80 degrees.

NEXT WEEK: A weak surface front will bring a few showers to Alabama Monday night and Tuesday, but there is little upper support, and moisture levels will be limited. So, no heavy rain and no severe weather. Then, an upper ridge will bring dry weather to the state Wednesday with highs up in the low to mid 80s… should be some of the warmest weather so far this year over the latter half of the week thanks to the ridge.

No sign of any severe weather issues for Alabama through the rest of April. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

AT THE BEACH: Clouds increase today along the coast from Panama City to Gulf Shores with just a small risk of a shower this afternoon. Rain is likely tonight and tomorrow, and heavy rain is likely tomorrow over the Florida Panhandle. Maybe even some flooding issues around Panama City. Then, the weekend looks great with sunny days and fair nights… most of next week will be dry as well with only a few isolated showers Tuesday. Highs on the coast will be in the 60s tomorrow, then low 70s are likely by the weekend and into next week.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program today at Creekview Elementary School in Alabaster… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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