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Midday Nowcast: Make It Rain Cold Front, Please

| September 26, 2016 @ 12:44 pm

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THE FRONT IS NOW IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA:
At the noon hour in Central Alabama, skies are mostly clear with very little in the way of rain is showing up on radar at this time for our area. The cold front, that is expected to move through the area later this afternoon and evening, is currently draped across the northwestern corner of the state. Showers and a few storms have developed ahead of the front are are very slowly moving to the east. A decent batch of showers are about to move in to the city of Cullman, as they are line up on US 278. The rest of the shower and storm activity near us is currently affecting areas such as Arab, Guntersville, and Scottsboro. There are a few heavy showers located in the southeastern corner of the state.

For the rest of today, skies will be partly to mostly clear until the cold front approaches your area this afternoon and evening and clouds will start to build in. As the day progresses and the cold front moves into our area, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase especially along and north of I-20. Afternoon highs will make it back up into the low to mid 90s until the front makes it through. We’ll continue the rain chance through the overnight hours, and lows will be in the mid 60s for the most part. Unfortunately, rain totals will probably average around 1/4 inch or less, due to the spotty and scattered nature of the rain.

CODE YELLOW AIR QUALITY ALERT:
Ozone and Particulate Matter 2.5 level will be high enough to raise the “Code Yellow” Air Quality Alert for the Birmingham metropolitan area today. Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS HOUR:

Birmingham 91
Tuscaloosa 90
Gadsden 90
Anniston 88
Cullman 82
Alexander City 90
Auburn 86
Selma 88
Montgomery 88

NORMS AND RECS FOR TODAY IN BIRMINGHAM:
The normal high for September 26th is 82, while the normal low is 59. The record high for today was set back in 1897 at 95. The record low was set back in 2001 at 41.

TOMORROW’S FORECAST:
Skies will start to clear out during the day tomorrow, and you will notice the cool change to our weather. After a cool start, the afternoon highs will only make it to around 80 degrees. Lower humidity levels will make that 80 degrees feel oh so welcome, compared to the mid to upper 90s of the past week.

HEADED TO THE BEACH:
Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the coast through the weekend with just a few widely scattered showers and storms around later today, tonight, and tomorrow. Highs in the 80s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

THE TROPICS:
“Invest 97L” should become Tropical Storm Matthew later this week as it moves into the Caribbean; this is a lower latitude system, but all model guidance suggests this will turn northward before reaching the Gulf of Mexico. Still very early, however, and we will need to keep an eye on it.

ON THIS DAY IN 2004:
After making its infamous loop east of the Bahamas, Hurricane Jeanne made landfall the night of September 26th, 2004. Jeanne came ashore as a major category 3 hurricane just a few miles away from where Hurricane Frances made landfall a few weeks before. Jeanne produced extensive damage along the east central Florida coast from Volusia County south to Martin County. The highest wind gusts occurred over extreme Southern Brevard County as well as Indian River County with 110 – 120 mph estimates at the peak of the storm.

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Soaring to New Heights — Good News Stories from Our Friends at Alabama NewsCenter!

| September 26, 2016 @ 9:00 am

From Airbus to artistic expression, from channels of communication to coal country, and from musicians to medical advances, our Alabama NewsCenter friends inspire us with Good News Stories from across the state.  Here are a few of our favorites!

Samford senior sports marketing student chosen for coveted ESPN internship

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Alabama jobs rising in manufacturing, bioscience fields

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Southern Research studies ways to spur innovation, new jobs in coal country

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Smoked macaroni and cheese from New Market Barbecue makes list of 100 Dishes to Eat in Alabama Before You Die

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In Fairhope, Alabama Maker Brian Kane brings the brew

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Taylor Hicks busy with new music, cable TV series and upcoming Birmingham concert

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UA workshop helps law enforcement interact with deaf

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Airbus Alabama has the Spirit

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Big Epidemiology: Detective work with millions of lives at stake

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UAB fight against cancer happening across many fronts

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The economic impact of cancer research

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UAB partners with local organizations to launch Park Prescription program in Birmingham

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Love inspired the Red Barn, which helps hurting children learn about love

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Power to Play grant program expands to support the arts

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Alabama Power Refrigerator Art contest inspires creativity in students

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At East Alabama Motor Speedway, racing is a family tradition

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Volunteers, multiple organizations support Village Creek cleanup, park project

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Alabama Secretary of State observes Russian elections, deploys sports celebs to boost voting at home

2016-09-24_20-59-22russian

‘Pigs Fly’ again for Red Mountain’s Keith Cromwell in New York reunion concert

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Alabama year-to-date home sales through August up 7 percent over 2015

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Gulf Coast condo sales in August up over same month in 2015

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Huntsville August home sales eclipse 600 units for first time since 2007

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Gadsden home sales through August up 18 percent over same period in 20152016-09-25_10-52-46gadsden

Can’t Miss Alabama has your first fall weekend all covered up

2016-09-25_12-15-10weekend

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Long Awaited Cold Front Getting Close

| September 26, 2016 @ 6:20 am

TIRED OF THE HEAT: After a weekend with highs in the upper 90s, most are ready for a fall cold front, and we have one this morning near the Mississippi River. Behind the front, temperatures are in the 30s, 40s, and 50s, and we will begin to enjoy the cooler air tomorrow and Wednesday.

WE NEED RAIN: Birmingham has gone seven consecutive days without a drop of rain; last measurable rain was on September 18 when the total was 0.32″. Our total for the month of September is only 0.68, and for the year the amount is 35.85″, a deficiency of 4.46″. Other places across North Alabama need almost 10 inches to get back to average amounts for the year.

Unfortunately, rain with the front later today and tonight will be rather light and spotty. Best chance of showers will come from about 3:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m., and most places will see only 1/4″ or less. And, after tonight, the chance of rain is pretty much non existent for the next seven days.

COOL CHANGE: After some lingering early morning clouds, the sky becomes mostly sunny tomorrow with a high around 80 degrees with considerably lower humidity. You will really notice the difference early Wednesday morning, with with a low between 50 and 55 degrees for most places; colder pockets across North Alabama should reach the upper 40s. Wednesday will be sunny with a high in the low 80s.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: A reinforcing shot of cooler air arrives Thursday and Friday, pushing highs down into the mid 70s; lows will remain well down in the 50s, with upper 40s for colder pockets. And, the pleasant autumn weather will continue into the weekend. Expect sunny days, fair nights. No risk of rain through Sunday.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Looking fantastic for Friday night’s high school games; a clear sky with temperatures falling through the 60s during the games (remember, they were falling through the 80s this past Friday night).

Alabama will host Kentucky Saturday evening at Bryant-Denny Stadium (6:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be clear with temperatures falling from 73 at kickoff, into the mid 60s by the fourth quarter.

We note the high in Tuscaloosa this past Saturday was 99, and if you use maximum temperature as a metric, it was the hottest day for a University of Alabama home game on record. The top three…

Kent State Sept 24, 2016 (Tuscaloosa) 99
Southern Miss Sept 8, 1990 (Birmingham) 98
Arkansas Sept 20, 1997 (Tuscaloosa) 96

Auburn hosts Louisiana-Monroe Saturday at Jordan Hare Stadium (2:30p CT kickoff)… expect a sunny sky with a kickoff temperature of 77 degrees…falling into the upper 60s by the final whistle.

NEXT WEEK: The first part of the week looks dry and pleasant; highs around 80, lows around 60. And again, unfortunately, no sign of beneficial rain through the week See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the coast through the weekend with just a few widely scattered showers and storms around later today, tonight, and tomorrow. Highs in the 80s… See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: “Invest 97L” should become Tropical Storm Matthew later this week as it moves into the Caribbean; this is a lower latitude system, but all model guidance suggests this will turn northward before reaching the Gulf of Mexico. Still very early, however, and we will need to keep an eye on it.

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The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have weather programs today at Cahawba Christian Academy in Centreville, and Brookwood Forest Elementary in Mountain Brook. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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Will the Record Be Unbroken? By and By, We Will Tell.

| September 25, 2016 @ 2:58 pm

By and by, we will find out whether the U.S. streak of no landfalling major hurricanes will remain intact. It was been 10 years 11 months and 2 days since a major hurricane hit the United States (Hurricane Wilma on October 24, 2005). That record obliterated the old record of eight years set in the 1860s. That’s 131 months 2 days. That’s 570 weeks. That’s an amazing 3,990 days.

DROUGHT BUSTER? Often, we look to dying tropical systems to spell the end of a southeastern drought. Let’s just hope it does come on the business end of a major hurricane.

MATTHEW THIS WEEK? The tropical wave that will likely become Matthew most likely is about 1350 miles east of the southern Windward Islands this afternoon. Low pressure should develop by Tuesday as the system approaches the southern Antilles. There is a chance that it will be a tropical storm as it enters the southeastern Caribbean. It will be very far to the south, hugging the coast of Venezuela before entering the Central Caribbean late next week. Then it will be entering very favorable conditions and we could be dealing with a major hurricane as it approaches Jamaica or Hispaniola next weekend.

IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY: After that it could affect Cuba, the Florida Keys, western Florida, the Florida Panhandle, the Central Gulf Coast, the Bahama, or Mexico. It could miss the United States entirely. Nothing like a specific forecast, huh? But it is just impossible to say at this point. Suffice to say, everyone with interests along the Gulf Coast will want to keep one eye on the progress of the system over the coming two weeks.

MODEL MADNESS: It’s still model madness and a voodoo sandwich at this point, with every run of the model controls pointing to a very different solution. The ensemble output of the two global models is still all over the board as one would expect, but some consistency did emerge last night and this morning.

Here is the output of the GFS Ensembles showing possible tracks. You can see that it is focusing on the area between the Florida Keys, South Florida and the Bahamas up into the Carolinas.

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Here is one set of the European model’s individual ensemble members for Thursday morning the 6th based on last evening’s run. The ensemble runs come by varying the input slightly each time to produce a different possible result. When there is good agreement among the members, you have have more confidence in that model run. You can see all of the different ideas on the table in the various outputs:

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The just shows some of the various options on the table for no.

There is actually one more set of ensemble outputs to go with these. But I counted up all 50 ensemble members this morning, and the winner (or loser) was the Florida Keys or the Bahamas with 16 of the 50 runs targeting them. There was about a 50/50 split between the Keys and the Bahamas. Interesting to note that Alabama/Mississippi region showed as a landfall point for 4 of the members. The biggest majority was no storm or no landfall. That seems unrealistic at this time.

Here is the control run of the European from the morning. It shows a hard right turn into Hispaniola on Wednesday on Tuesday October 4th.

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Here is the control from the GFS for the same time:

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It shows a similar solution to the European. If that materializes, the U.S. landfalling major hurricane record may remain remain unbroken. And we shall remain dry.

REST OF THE TROPICS: Karl is now a post tropical storm over the North Atlantic. Advisories have been discontinued. Karl passed south of Bermuda Friday night and Saturday morning, bringing tropical storm force gusts to the island nation along with heavy rains. About 800 homes were without power yesterday and there were big swells and waves. No injuries were reported. Bermuda is used to passing hurricanes.

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Hot Afternoon for Central Alabama

| September 25, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

The 11 am temperature reported at the Birmingham Shuttlesworth International Airport was 90 degrees as was Tuscaloosa, so we’ve hit another day with highs in the 90s. This string of hot days seems to have a relationship with the Energizer Bunny as they just keep rolling along. But there is an end in sight. If you are curious about the record highs for today, here is the list based on NWS climate data:

Record Highs for Sunday September 25th
Birmingham  97 set in 1921
Tuscaloosa  97 set in 1961
Anniston    96 set in 1931
Montgomery  97 set in 2010

For today, a cumulus field had developed across Alabama with a few showers showing up on radars covering South Alabama and the Gulf Coast from Dauphin Island to Apalachicola. These showers were moving slowly to the southwest thanks to a weak upper low which could be identified centered just northeast of Mobile, AL.

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At least one or two of these showers had developed cloud-to-ground lightning. I would not be surprised to see severe thunderstorm warnings issued for a couple of these storms.

The high temperature tomorrow will have some variation across Alabama because we expect to see a cold front enter the state early tomorrow morning around daybreak. The front is projected to move steadily to the east and south reaching close to the Gulf Coast in the morning hours of Tuesday. Thanks in part to a fairly dry atmosphere with precipitable water values running in the 1.3 to 1.7 inch range, rain is not expected to be widespread or heavy. The latest QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) continued to be somewhat pessimistic on rainfall amounts with amounts likely to remain below a quarter of an inch for locations that do see rain.

And for those who may be following the tropics, the GFS continued to show the development of the area of disturbed weather currently in the extreme South Central Atlantic. But the latest GFS run now has this storm turning north across Hispaniola and remaining well east of the US coast line as it recurves on a path keeping it in the western Atlantic. But remember, you’ve heard it here many times. There simply is little skill in forecasting the specifics of this kind of event 10 to 15 days in the future.

-Brian-

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Dancing With the Stats: September’s 90s Drawing to a Close

| September 25, 2016 @ 12:01 pm

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Saturday was another extremely hot day across Central Alabama with all locations in the upper 90s and a couple of 100F readings. It was 100F at the Mercedes Plant in Vance and at Weedon Field in Eufaula. These readings are some 10-15 degrees above normal for late September.

For the second time this month, the Birmingham Shuttlesworth International Airport hit 98F, which was short of the record for September 24th (99F) set in 1931). Records were set for the second straight day at Anniston, Montgomery and Tuscaloosa with 97F, 98F and 99F respectively.

SUMMER WON’T QUIT: In an average year, we see 6.2 days of 90 degree heat in September in Birmingham. This year, there have been 21 and today will most certainly add another.

ABOVE NORMAL: The graphic shows the amounts average temperatures have been above “normal”, a statistical term used to smooth the jagged edges of “average” temperatures. You can see, we have certainly been above that normal curve, even on the “cooler’ days of September. In fact, we are running 6 degrees above average so far this month.

EYE OPENING STAT: In a typical June – September period, Birmingham will record 52.3 days of 90 degree heat. We will end 2016 with 91 days of 90+ degree heat. We only hit 100F this summer, so it was a season of extremes, but it was relentless.

ONE MORE DAY, ONE MORE DAY: Let me hear you: one more day… Everyone will be back into the middle and upper 90s today and many spots will hit 90F tomorrow. Will that be the last time this year? Probably not. We have registered a 90F reading as late at October 17th in Birmingham. Highs starting Tuesday will average around 80F into the weekend. Lows will be quite comfortable, with 50s each morning this week starting Wednesday.

ANY RAIN? Not much chance. The cold front that will deliver the cooler temperatures will bring scattered showers and storms tomorrow. But rainfall amounts will average one tenth of an inch.

EYE ON THE TROPICS: What will probably become Matthew is a tropical wave some 1350 miles east of the Lesser Antilles this afternoon. More on that and what might be its impact on the U.S. around 130 p.m.

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Hold On! One More Hot Day!

| September 25, 2016 @ 6:43 am

Looks like one more round of hot weather before we see a change to cooler, drier weather. See the post below this one for a recap of the new record highs set yesterday.

The sky across Central Alabama showed some streaks of clouds this morning as compared to the completely clear sky we had yesterday morning. Still even with those clouds we should see a good supply of sunshine again with highs climbing to near record levels with readings in the range of 94 to 97. But perhaps this will be our last really hot day for a while, maybe even until next year!

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Beach weather looking good, too, with about 8 to 10 hours of sunshine daily on the coast from Dauphin Island to Panama City Beach through Wednesday with only widely scattered storms. Highs will be in the upper 80s on the immediate coast with low 90s inland through mid-week, but after that temperatures come down into the lower and mid 80s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

Severe weather appears to be at a minimum for the next several days. SPC has outlined a marginal risk around and just west of Chicago for Day 1. Day 2 sees that small area moves to the Central Appalachians covering West Virginia and western Pennsylvania. Day 3 is free of any areas of organized severe storms.

Tropics remain active. Lisa has dissipated. Karl is moving across the North Atlantic and will soon dissipate after it gains hurricane status for a brief time. The area of disturbed weather is the South Central Atlantic continued to chug steadily westward at 15 to 20 mph. Conditions in the atmosphere are expected to become favorable for development of this system as it approaches the Leeward Islands and the eastern Caribbean. The system could become a tropical depression about mid-week.

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The weak low pressure area in the atmosphere along the Gulf Coast will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms today mainly along the Gulf Coast and South Alabama. NWS Mobile issued a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings yesterday, and we may see the same thing today. Storms should be fairly isolated similar to what we saw on radar yesterday.

The cold front stretching from eastern Minnesota in an arc southwestward into West Texas is forecast to move steadily eastward. This motion should bring the front into Central Alabama during the early afternoon on Monday. Aloft, a strong trough will propel the surface system eastward as the trough breaks down the ridge in place over the eastern US today. Unfortunately, while we need to see a good rain event, it is unlikely that we’ll see that happening with this system. Precipitable water values are forecast to be in the range of 1.4 to 1.7 inches, so while showers and thunderstorms are likely to occur, not everyone will see rain and rainfall amounts are expected to be less than a quarter of an inch. Certainly not a drought buster.

The front slides well into the Gulf on Tuesday as the upper trough sets up for a couple of days over the eastern US. Wednesday is likely to be our coolest day with morning lows falling into the lower 50s area wide. Those typically cooler spots will probably see lows in the upper 40s. Highs will be much more seasonal with values in the lower 80s.

Beginning Thursday the ridge to our west slides eastward into the Southeast US keeping us dry for the end of the week and into the weekend. Lows should be in the 50s and highs mainly in the lower 80s – and that should feel really nice with dew points around 50 degrees.

Getting out into voodoo country, and the GFS is maintaining a forecast that includes a strong tropical system in the Caribbean. While the GFS has remained on track with the idea of a strong tropical system, the forecast path of the storm has not. Friday the forecast carried the system into the Central Gulf. Yesterday it was in the eastern Gulf. Today, the path of the storm is forecast to cross Cuba and travel northward right up the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. So while we have continuity for the development of a tropical storm or hurricane, we do not have continuity on where it will go, so we can only speculate on that for now. It is interesting to note that the European model also develops a storm in the eastern Caribbean, but the track on the European is way east of the GFS taking the storm across Hispaniola. There is lots of time before any of this will occur, and I expect to see additional changes before we are able to focus in on a reasonable forecast.

James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video bright and early on Monday morning. You can always check back here for updates on how the weather is changing. Stay cool and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Weather Records Update

| September 24, 2016 @ 6:42 pm

Looks like we set some new records once again today. So here’s a recap of the highs across Central Alabama today.

Birmingham high of 98 just one degree below the record of 99 set in 1931

Anniston high of 97 breaks the old record of 96 set in 1931

Calera high of 98 (no record value established)

Tuscaloosa high of 99 breaks the old record of 97 set in 1961

Montgomery high of 98 ties the record of 98 set in 1931

Huntsville high of 97 breaks the old record of 96 set in 1961

Muscle Shoals high of 98 just two degrees below the record of 100 set in 1931

Pensacola high of 97 breaks the old record of 96 set in 1993

Mobile high of 95 breaks the old record of 94 set in 2010

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Not much reason to think that the highs tomorrow will be much different from today, but we will be dealing with a different set of records. But have patience, there is still good indications that we’ll see a cold front pass through Central Alabama during the day on Monday. Additional clouds and the presence of some showers should help to limit our highs on Monday to the range of the upper 80s to lower 90s across Central Alabama. Drier air along with some significant cooling should keep temperatures from Tuesday through next weekend in the lower 80s. That should feel very nice!

-Brian-

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Note: the Monday high on this graphic is probably too high.

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Hot Weekend; Cooler Next Week

| September 24, 2016 @ 7:23 am

Let’s start with a quick recap of some new records yesterday established for Anniston, Tuscaloosa, Montgomery, Muscle Shoals, and Pensacola. At Anniston, the old record of 96 set in 1980 was broken with a high of 97. At Tuscaloosa, the old record of 97 set in 1980 was broken with a high of 98. Montgomery did nearly the same breaking the old record of 97 set in 1931 with a high of 98. And it was 94 in Pensacola tying the record high for yesterday set in 1998. The bad news is that there is little reason to expect our high temperatures today to be much different from yesterday. Record highs for today include Birmingham at 99 set in 1931, Tuscaloosa at 97 set in 1961, Anniston at 96 set in 1931, and Montgomery at 98 set in 1931, so we could see a couple of these records tumble today.

You know the pattern. We have a surface high along with an upper ridge in place across the Southeast US. The upper ridge bulges northward all the way to the Great Lakes area. But we are also eyeing a rather deep closed low and trough over the northern and central Rockies that will be making its way slowly eastward making an impact on our weather in the Monday-Tuesday time frame. For now satellite images shows clear skies across the state of Alabama with a few patches of clouds present over South Alabama. Look for highs today to once again reach the middle and upper 90s in the range of 94 to 98.

Football weather looks good albeit warm! Alabama hosts Kent State at Bryant-Denny Stadium with an 11:00 am CDT kickoff. The sky will be mostly sunny with temperatures rising from near 88 at kickoff to 95 degrees by the final whistle. It will be very, very hot in the east stands with direct sun while the west side will be more shaded. Sun screen a must for the game!

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Auburn will host LSU at Jordan-Hare Stadium with a 5:00 pm CDT kickoff. The sky should be mostly clear with temperatures falling through the 80s.

Headed to the beach? About 8 to 10 hours of sunshine is expected daily on the coast from Dauphin Island to Panama City Beach through the weekend with only widely scattered storms expected through the middle of the upcoming week. Highs will be in the upper 80s on the immediate coast with lower 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

Little in the way of severe storms forecast by SPC with only a marginal risk in a narrow strip arcing from West Texas northward across western Iowa into the western Dakotas. The marginal risk area slides to Chicago and southern Lake Michigan for Day 2. Day 3 has no risk areas.

And the tropics remain active as they have been since about the 10th of September. Karl and Lisa are still plodding away. Karl is very close to Bermuda this morning but will be moving rapidly into the North Atlantic. Lisa remained a depression this morning and is expected to fizzle by Sunday. An area of disturbed weather with a broad low pressure field was south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This area is expected to move steadily at 20 to 25 mph across the South Atlantic. By about Wednesday or so, the area will be approaching the Leeward Islands where environmental conditions are expected to become favorable for intensification. Should this area become better organized then it would be named Matthew.

Following the GFS 06Z model run, the strong trough over the northern Rockies this morning will push eastward through Tuesday when it is expected to reach the eastern Great Lakes area. A surface low associated with this upper trough over the Dakotas this morning will move eastward reaching Southeast Canada by Tuesday. This will bring a cold front down into the Southeast US during the day on Monday. This will bring our best chances for rain over the next week or so, but it’s looking more and more likely that the showers or thunderstorms that do occur will be scattered, so not everyone will see rain. Moisture values ahead of the front are limited with precipitable water values around 1.5 to 1.7 inches.

Before all of that comes about, it is worth mentioning that there is a weak area of low pressure in the upper air flow over the Gulf Coast area of the florida Panhandle. This weakness is moving westward and is not expected to have much impact other than the potential for isolated showers along the Gulf Coast and into southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

The front pushes further south into the Gulf on Tuesday bringing us under high pressure from over Texas. The upper flow goes northwesterly behind the upper trough, so we should be able to say goodbye to highs in the 90s with our highs finally dipping back into the 80s, much closer to our seasonal averages for late September and early October.

The upper ridge to our west on Wednesday will slowly slide east through the end of the week and into the weekend keeping us dry. Highs can be expected to stay in the lower and middle 80s – a nice change – and with lower humidity as dew points fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Wednesday appears likely to be our coolest morning with lows in the lower 50s, but those typically cooler locations could see morning lows reach the upper 40s. Won’t that feel nice?

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Looking out into voodoo country, another strong trough moves into the western Great Lakes around October 4th followed by another, much deep trough around October 6th. And when you look at the maps, you cannot ignore the GFS projections of a strong tropical system coming into the Gulf of Mexico. Following the maps, this tracks back to that broad area of low pressure that is currently south of Cabo Verde Islands. That deep approaching trough on the 6th seems likely to force the tropical system in the Gulf to recurve into the Northeast Gulf Coast. Remember, we’re dealing with voodoo country here. But it is worth noting that the scenario the GFS is currently painting has some validity. We’ve seen numerous systems come across the South Atlantic this season without any development just as the GFS is suggesting with this system. Conditions in the Caribbean and Gulf as well as the immediate East Coast of the US is where we’ve seen development as we saw with Hermine and even with Julia. I’m certainly not waving hurricane flags just yet, but I think we’ll need to keep a close eye on future runs of the GFS to see what we might expect.

Thanks for tuning into the blog. I expect to post the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video here by 7:30 am or so on Sunday morning. Wishing all the teams success in their games today, and certainly hoping the Florida State Seminoles can bounce back from the devastating loss last week. Stay cool and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Hot Weekend; Much Cooler Next Week

| September 23, 2016 @ 3:25 pm

ONE LAST HOT WEEKEND: Summer fans will get one bonus weekend as this pattern won’t be changing. An upper ridge holds, meaning mostly sunny, hot days and fair nights through Sunday. Highs will remain generally in the 92-95 degree range, ten degrees above average for late September. Any afternoon showers will be very hard to find.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tonight, the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling through the 80s.

Alabama hosts Kent State at Bryant-Denny Stadium tomorrow morning (11:00a CT kickoff)… the sky will be partly to mostly sunny with temperatures rising from near 88 at kickoff, to 94 degrees by the final whistle. It will be very, very hot in the east stands where the sun will be out in full force (the west side will be more shaded).

Auburn will host LSU at Jordan-Hare Stadium tomorrow evening (5:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly clear with temperatures falling through the 80s.

NEXT WEEK: The big upper trough over the western states will beat the ridge down, and push a cold front in our direction. We will bring in the chance of showers Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning; unfortunately I don’t think this will be a widespread, or especially beneficial rain event as amounts should be under 1/4″ for many places. Monday’s high will drop into the mid 80s, and on Tuesday the high will be close to 80 degrees; the sky will be occasionally cloudy both days.

We expect beautiful early fall weather Wednesday through Friday as dry air settles in; sunny pleasant days, clear cool nights. The coolest morning should come early Wednesday with low to mid 50s likely… cooler pockets across North Alabama could reach the upper 40s. Highs will be in the 77-82 degree range.

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights, only isolated storms on the coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through Sunday. Highs upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low 90s inland. Scattered showers will be a little more likely early next week… See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Karl will pass just east of Bermuda tonight, then moving northeast out to sea. TropicaL Storm Lisa is expected to dissipate this weekend in the eastern Atlantic far from land. A new wave just off the coast of Africa will have some potential for development in 3 to 5 days. Just something to watch for now.

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I had a great time today seeing the kids at the Pickens County Early Learning Center in Carrollton… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

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