AlabamaWx is Powered by The Weather Factory

Turning Sharply Colder Tomorrow

| December 7, 2016 @ 6:27 am

COOL, DRY DECEMBER DAY: Not sure we see much sun today, but the day will be dry with a high in the mid 50s. We note the average high for December 7 for Birmingham is 58.

ARCTIC FRONT BLOWS IN TOMORROW: Moisture will be very limited, but we might see a few raindrops or sprinkles with the front tomorrow morning. But, clearly the big story is the incoming cold air; we won’t get past the mid 40s, and a north wind of 15-25 mph will make it feel colder.

By Friday morning we will drop into the 20-25 degree range, and despite sunshine in full force Friday’s high will be between 38 and 41 degrees.

The coldest morning will come early Saturday, when we project a low between 18 and 22 degrees for most communities across North/Central Alabama.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A warming trend begins Saturday afternoon; with a sunny sky we expect a high in the upper 40s. Then, on Sunday, clouds return to the state, and it looks like rain could move into North Alabama as early as Sunday afternoon. A few periods of rain are likely Sunday night into early Monday morning; rain amounts of about 1/2 inch are likely.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS model is suggesting some light rain is possible across the state Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by yet another blast of very cold, Arctic air Thursday and Friday. There is no evidence of any ice or snow issues for Alabama for the next seven days, but the pattern continues to look cold on into that following week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details…

WARNING: We are now in the season where some weather enthusiasts like to play the “forecast snow two weeks in advance” game. They search for long range (out to 384 hour) global model output that shows some kind of snow or ice event, and post it across their social media platforms and blogs, knowing it will bring thousands of clicks, likes, and shares. That horse left the barn several years ago and there is nothing we can do about it, but just understand there is little to no skill in a specific weather forecast beyond seven days. I could light it up with wild, bogus snow forecasts two weeks in advance, knowing my audience numbers would grow to massive levels. But, professionals don’t post fantasy land snow maps for clicks and likes; it is simply unethical.

PLEASE THINK BEFORE YOU SHARE these irresponsible forecasts across social media.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…

Comments

Powered by Facebook Comments

Coldest Air So Far This Season By Thursday

| December 6, 2016 @ 3:21 pm

RADAR CHECK: Rain has pulled out of Alabama this afternoon, but clouds linger across much of the state with temperatures in the 50s…

goes20302016341kz0p2p

Tomorrow will a dry and cool day; the sky will be generally cloudy, although the sun could peek out at times. Again, the high will be in the mid 50s.

ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY: A few light rain showers or sprinkles could move through Thursday morning ahead of the front, but moisture will be very limited, and any precipitation will be pretty much insignificant. The big story is the cold air rushing into the state Thursday with strong north winds of 15-25 mph, gusting at times to 30 mph. We will have a very hard time getting past the low 40s, and the wind will make it feel colder.

Friday will be a brighter day with sunshine returning in full force, but it will be cold. The low early Friday will be in the 20-25 degree range, followed by a high between 37 and 40 degrees. Some places near the Tennessee border could stay below freezing all day.

Then, by early Saturday, we project a low between 18 and 22 degrees for most communities across North/Central Alabama. The record low for December 10 (for Birmingham) is 13 (set in 1995)… that is probably safe.

THE WEEKEND: Saturday will be a sunny day, and warming trend begins with a high in the upper 40s. Then, on Sunday, clouds increase during the day as temperatures reach the 50s. The next wave to the west will bring rain back into the state by Sunday night into Monday morning; the latest global model guidance suggests rain amounts of around 1/2 inch will be likely.

ANOTHER ARCTIC SHOT: We are still seeing strong signals that another very cold, Arctic airmass will move into Alabama late next week, Thursday and Friday (December 15-16)… and that one could very well be colder than the one we expect this week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and details.

We stress there is no evidence of any problems with snow, ice, or other winter mischief here in Alabama despite the cold air shots over the next 10 days. As usual, we are seeing wild and crazy Facebook and Internet forecasts that are far from reality from people looking for likes and clicks. Please think before you share.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I had a great time today visiting with he 5th graders at Southside Elementary School in Etowah County… be looking for those kids on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Comments

Powered by Facebook Comments

Just About All Rain Has Moved Out At Midday, But Cloudy Skies Remain

| December 6, 2016 @ 12:05 pm

screen-shot-2016-12-06-at-11-33-39-am

A Cloudy And Rainy Midday Out There In Central Alabama
Other than a few sprinkles showing up near Talladega, Anniston, Oxford, and Sylacauga, all of the rain activity associated with the low pressure center that is currently located near Lawrenceburg Tennessee and accompanying front have exited the area. There are a few sprinkles to very light showers located up in the far northeast corner of the state around Scottsboro and Fort Payne, but those will make their way out of the state soon as well. That leaves a decent amount of cloud cover across the area, but there are a few breaks in the clouds that may allow the sun to break through for a few minutes.

screen-shot-2016-12-06-at-11-35-31-am

Temperatures across the area at 11:30 AM are mainly in the 50s and 60s from northwest to southeast, with 70s showing up in the extreme southeastern parts of the area. The warm spot at this time is Eufaula at 73 degrees, with he cool spot at Haleyville at 52 degrees.

Birmingham’s Climatology And Records
The normal high for December 6th is 58, while the normal low is 37. The record high for today was set back in 1998 at 78. The record low was set back in 1937 at 14.

For The Rest Of Today
Skies will remain mostly cloudy to cloudy for the remainder of the daytime and evening hours, with a few areas in the extreme eastern parts of the area getting sprinkles to very light showers within the next hour or two. After that, dry conditions will move in, and highs will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the area from the northwest to the southeast, with a few upper 60s to low 70s in the extreme southeastern corner of the area. Skies will remain cloudy during the overnight hours, and lows will drop down mostly in the 40s across the area, with the colder spots dipping into the upper 30s.

Wednesday’s Outlook
A mix of sun and clouds can be expected for “Hump Day” across Central Alabama through the duration of the daytime hours, but a strong cold front will move into and across the area during the late evening and overnight areas bringing a slight chance of a few showers. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s across the area from northwest to southeast, with lows dropping down into the 30s and 40s. Rain totals with the cold front passage will be small, around 1/10 of an inch or less.

Number Of The Day: 5.19
The Weather Factory meteorologist Bill Murray has recorded a rainfall total of 5.19 inches at his residence since Monday. Before that, he had only received 4.82 inches since July 8th when he installed his new rain gauge, including a period of no rain at all from 10/18 to 11/19.

On This Day In 1886
A great snowstorm hit the southern Appalachain Mountains. The three day storm produced 25 inches at Rome GA, 33 inches at Asheville NC, and 42 inches in the mountains. Montgomery AL received a record eleven inches of snow. Columbia SC received one to two inches of sleet.

Follow The Blog On Twitter
Be sure to follow the Alabama Wx Weather Blog on Twitter. Just click here to start following our feed.

WeatherBrains
This is the weekly netcast that’s all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. This week, the panel will be talking about water, something that we have learned to appreciate even more in the past few weeks. You can listen anytime on the web, or on iTunes. You can find it here.

Forecaster: Scott Martin (Twitter: @scottmartinwx)

Comments

Powered by Facebook Comments

Rain Ends Later Today; Arctic Front Arrives Thursday

| December 6, 2016 @ 6:21 am

RADAR CHECK: We have lingering showers across Alabama early this morning…

screen-shot-2016-12-06-at-6-07-44-am

This rain will continue to end from west to east, and most of it will be out of the state by late morning. Clouds linger through the afternoon, and the high today will be in the mid 60s.

Tomorrow looks cool and dry, although we will see more clouds than sun…the high will be in about ten degrees cooler, in the mid 50s.

COLDEST SO FAR: An Arctic front will blow into Alabama Thursday morning; ahead of the front a band of rain showers is likely, but moisture will be limited, and amounts should be 1/4″ or less. The big story is the cold air; following the front’s passage north winds will increase to 15-25 mph with higher gusts, and temperatures won’t get past the low 40s.

Friday will be a sunny but very cold day. The low early Friday morning will be in the 20-25 degree range, and most communities across North/Central Alabama won’t make it out of the 30s during the afternoon. Some places over the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama could stay below freezing all day.

By early Saturday morning, temperatures will drop into the 18-22 degree range. Looks like the record low for December 10, 13 degrees set in 1995, is safe.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will be a sunny day with a high in the upper 40s as a warming trend begins, but clouds move in Sunday, and some rain could reach North and Central Alabama by Sunday night. The high Sunday will be in the upper 50s.

The European model (ECMWF) holds the rain off until Monday; one way or another this looks like a system that will bring about 1/2″ of rain to the state. And, toward the end of next week there seems to be potential for another shot of cold, Arctic air. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

kbhm_2016120600_eps_min_max_15

We note there is NO sign of any snow or ice issues for Alabama for the next ten days based on current model output.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I have a weather program this morning at Southside Elementary School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Comments

Powered by Facebook Comments

WeatherBrains 568: Calling the Ambulance Now

| December 6, 2016 @ 5:20 am

WeatherBrains Episode 568 is now online (December 5, 2016). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Brian CosgroveTonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a Research Hydrologist for the National Weather Service (NWS). He is the National Water Model Lead. He has been responsible for the implementation of the groundbreaking and gamechanging technology for the National Weather Service. Brian Cosgrove, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 88 at Tampa (Vandenburg), FL, and -9 at Stanley, ID;
  • Slight risk of severe weather over extreme SE US;
  • National snow analysis shows 32 percent snow cover across Lower 48;
  • Going to get cold across the eastern half of the country;
  • Nice rains over Southeast US but more flood issue in SE Texas; and
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Our email bag officer encounters a bunch of technical problems, so the email bag will be summarized next week.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101:

Listener SurveyListener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 568:

Office of Water Prediction

To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

Picks of the Week:

Brian Cosgrove – Office of Water Prediction

Bill Murray – Gets the fog horn!

Brian Peters – BloomSky weather station

Kevin Selle – Fog time lapse from Wichita Falls

James Spann – SPC Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity

Aubrey Urbanowicz – Fog dome caught on camera

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

Audible.com graphic

Comments

Powered by Facebook Comments

A Brief Update For Tonight’s Weather

| December 5, 2016 @ 9:10 pm

screen-shot-2016-12-05-at-9-09-07-pm

Well there is two bits of good news for tonight’s weather. The first good news is that we will receive even more beneficial rainfall to help bring our deficits down. Even though there is a lull in the rainfall across much of the area at this moment, more rain is expected to move in from the west and southwest.

al_swody1

The second bit of good news is that the SPC has cut the risk areas down a bit from earlier today. Only the southern parts of Barbour, Bullock, and Pike Counties in the southeastern corner of the area remain in the “Slight Risk” for severe storms, with locations in our area south of a line from Auburn to Montgomery to just south of Demopolis in the “Marginal Risk.”

The boundary that is expected to move north as a warm front has not started its move as of yet. With that staying in place, that has kept the convection down near the Gulf Coast, and has allowed temperatures and dew points north of that boundary to be way lower than expected, especially with the amount of precipitation that has fallen already in Central Alabama. There still may be a few thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rainfall, but for nearly the entire Central Alabama area, there will be no severe weather threat through the rest of the evening and the overnight hours.

So bring on the rain, and a few claps of thunder. That will only help me sleep better.

Comments

Powered by Facebook Comments