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Invest 99L And Labor Day Weekend

| August 28, 2016 @ 7:04 am

THE HYPE MACHINE: I still say the open tropical wave known as “Invest 99L” is the most publicized disorganized wave in history. The two primary reasons…

*It has been 3,961 days (almost 11 years) since a major hurricane (category three or higher) has made landfall in the U.S… last one was Hurricane Wilma that hit Florida on October 24, 2005. This is now the longest streak (by far) since hurricane records began in 1851. And, no, “Sandy” wasn’t a “major hurricane” by definition when it moved into the Northeast U.S. in 2012; it was a a category one hurricane morphing into a post-tropical storm.

*Social media now allows anyone and everyone to share weather information and computer models to thousands, if not millions. Twitter didn’t exist the last time a hurricane hit Florida. And, there are many weather enthusiasts and zealots that “want some action”, and do their best to “wishcast” a hurricane by finding that one deterministic 300 hour model run that shows the big one coming up on places like Gulf Shores or Panama City Beach.

Many of these weather amateurs are middle school or high school students, that run sites like “Joe Bob’s Weather Center”, with a corresponding Facebook page. They have learned that the most outrageous hurricane forecasts are the ones that get the attention. When they post long range model output that shows a big storm, they also ask, and almost beg, for you to “like and share”. That is the first warning sign you have stumbled upon a clickbait site with no regard for the truth or ethics.

We want young people to be able to have web sites and Facebook pages, but even a 15 year old has to understand they have great power to deceive the public, and need to keep the information they share within the bounds of meteorologically sound advice. There are many things we don’t know, and many things we can’t do. There is no 15 year old running “Joe Bob’s Weather Center” that knows the intensity and track of a tropical cyclone two weeks in advance.

From those of us in the professional enterprise, I am asking you not to click, like, or especially share bogus weather information concerning things like hurricanes and winter storms, despite the temptation. Look for professional meteorologists, especially those with American Meteorological Society certification like the CBM (certified broadcast meteorologist), or CCM (certified consulting meteorologist). You earn these through academic credentials, a review of your professional work by peers, and a rigorous exam. Sure, those with a CBM or CCM can and will be wrong, but I assure you the information is more solid that “Joe Bob’s Weather Center”.

WHAT ABOUT 99L? This morning the wave near the northern coast of Cuba remains disorganized, but is hanging in there. Model output can’t be trusted much since there is no way to initialize the wave, so you see wild output like this (06Z tropical model set)…

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Concerning global models and the ensemble approach (one model using slightly different initial conditions that are all plausible given the past and current set of observations), the GFS has been fairly consistent, suggesting slow development in the eastern Gulf, with a turn to the right over North Florida late this week.

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The reliable European model is trending toward this solution, and seems to be a credible idea. If by chance this is correct, most of the rain and inclement weather associated with the wave (it gets the name Hermine if it becomes a Tropical Storm) will remain south and east of Alabama, and east of places like Gulf Shores and Pensacola.

And, intensity guidance suggests a hurricane is not especially likely…

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But the bottom line is this… at this time nobody knows the final destination and intensity curve of “99L”, or if it will impact the Central Gulf Coast over the Labor Day weekend. Once we finally get an organized system, we will be able to give you a decent holiday weekend forecast for the various coastal locations. Stay tuned.

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A Hot Saturday Afternoon

| August 27, 2016 @ 1:35 pm

Our weather continues to be dominated by the influence of the upper ridge across the Deep South. For today we are seeing plenty of sun and hot conditions as temperatures are in the 90s out there this afternoon.

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We are watching a few of those isolated storms this afternoon, but for the most part the radar has very little activity currently. Most of this activity is across northern portions of the state and are tracking towards the northeast.

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Tomorrow’s weather will be the same, expect partly to mostly sunny, hot, humid conditions with isolated, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will be generally in the low to mid 90s.

INVEST 99L: Looks unimpressive today as the weak area of low pressure located between the northern coast of Cuba and Andros Island in the Bahamas continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the south and east of its center.

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Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development during the next day or so while the low moves west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida at about 10 mph. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development when the system moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Heavy rains are likely to continue over portions of eastern and central Cuba today. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys by Sunday. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission scheduled to investigate this system today has been cancelled.

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This feature could still develop but the NHC give this feature a 40% of development the next five days. Due to the upper-ridge over the Southeast, it appears the system will continue to track west across the Gulf. The computer models are still struggling with this system and there is a lot of uncertainty with it, so stay tuned…

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Less Showers Today and Sunday

| August 27, 2016 @ 7:00 am

The morning satellite shot shows a few clouds in the Central Alabama sky, so most locations should see a good supply of sun this morning and into the afternoon. Some patchy fog reported mainly in the Tennessee Valley which should burn off pretty quickly. A surface high centered over western Virginia will establish an easterly flow across the Southeast US, so some slightly drier air will advect into Central Alabama. For that reason, we probably won’t see any showers today with our afternoon highs climbing well into the lower 90s.

Gorgeous weather weather along the Gulf Coast with no impacts from the tropics through the weekend. More sun than clouds with only a few passing isolated showers or thunderstorms a possibility. Highs along the beach will be in the upper 80s with overnight lows in the upper 70s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

SPC has little in the way of severe weather risks for the next three days. There area marginal risk areas centered on Chicago and on eastern South Dakota for Day 1; Day 2 there is a small marginal risk area in New York and Pennsylvania and another in Central Minnesota.

The tropics have come alive with four areas to watch. Gaston is gathering strength and will likely reach hurricane strength early Sunday while it remains in the Central Atlantic. There is one area of disturbed weather just southwest of Bermuda moving westward with only small chances for becoming a tropical storm. We have Invest 99L which has reached the southern Bahamas and continues to be very disorganized. This system once had an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm, but now the short term stands at only 20 percent and the longer term at 40 percent. It is still forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico into next week. There is yet another area just off the Louisiana coast that stands little chance of becoming a tropical storm.

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The dry air today is likely to remain an active player for Sunday keeping our chances for any showers extremely small. The upper ridge remains centered just to our north across Kentucky. While moisture values go up a little especially across the northern third of Alabama, there is still an area of lowered precipitable water values across the Montgomery area. Look for showers to remain isolated with the better chances for seeing one from Birmingham northward. Highs again in the lower 90s.

The upper ridge breaks down a little over the Southeast US and becomes reentered to our west as we see a trough develop along the East Coast. This pattern certainly favors bringing the pesky Invest 99L into the Central Gulf. Recurvature to the north and northeast is a fairly real possibility depending on just how strong the influence of the trough will be on it. The movement of Invest 99L will play a big role in the forecasts for the Southeast US next week, so the forecast could possibly undergo some serious revisions if/when Invest 99L gets its act together. Even if it retains a disorganized pattern, it will mean some rain for some.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS is especially bullish on bring the upper ridge back into the Central Plains states so that keeps us in the hot weather as we start September with the westerlies sticking close to the US-Canadian border.

I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here first thing on Sunday morning. Stay cool and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Hot Afternoons; 99L Hanging In There

| August 26, 2016 @ 3:41 pm

RADAR CHECK: Scattered showers and storms are over the northern third of Alabama this afternoon… moving to the west…

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NWS in Huntsville has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for parts of Colbert and Franklin Counties at 3:40 p.m.

Heaviest storms are over Northwest Alabama, where very heavy rain is falling along with frequent lightning and gusty winds at mid-afternoon. These showers and storms will fade once the sun goes down later this evening. Temperatures away from the storms are mostly in the low 90s.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL: Can’t totally rule out a shower or storm at few stadiums during the first quarter of the games across Alabama tonight, but most of the showers will be over by 8:00 p.m. It will be a very humid, warm night with temperatures falling from the 80s into the upper 70s.

THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK: The upper ridge holds, and our weather won’t change much. Hot humid days, a partly sunny sky, and “widely scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorm”. Highs low to mid 90s. It is pretty much a persistence forecast for the next seven days; the only potential change in the weather next week would involve something from the tropics, but for now it looks like our friend “99L” won’t impact our state directly.

ACTIVE TROPICS: Gaston, a tropical storm in the Central Atlantic, doesn’t look very healthy this afternoon, but NHC still expects this to regain hurricane status over the weekend. It will recurve into the open water east of Bermuda, and is no threat to land.

Another disturbance is over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico; that will drift into Texas with no development.

Eyes remain on “Invest 99L”, an open tropical wave that will move through the Florida Straights and into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There has been an increase in convection near the wave, and it seems as shear is lessening a bit. So, some chance of slow development continues.

vis0-lalo

The global models (both the GFS and the Euro) show this feature moving up the Florida west coast, with a turn back to the east next week. This solution seems pretty plausible, and if it verifies Alabama would not be impacted directly, with most of the rain off to the east over the Florida Peninsula and Southeast Georgia.

But, we stress there is still a good deal of uncertainty, and it is still impossible to resolve the track and intensity of the system in coming days. Confidence is high, however, that this will not impact the Central Gulf Coast over the Labor Day weekend. Keep up with the latest blog discussions over the weekend.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights through Monday on the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach, with just a few widely scattered showers or storms around. Beyond that, the weather will all depend on the behavior of “99L”. Highs on the immediate coast will remain in the upper 80s, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates here tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

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Midday Nowcast: Hot & Humid With Some Strong Storms Out There

| August 26, 2016 @ 1:42 pm

Radar

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At this hour, scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the northern half of Central Alabama, with a few of these prompting Significant Weather Advisories on them from the NWS. One has been issued for a storm located near Detroit in Northwestern Marion County, with the main threats being from winds in excess of 40 MPH, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and torrential rainfall which could lead to localized flooding. Advisory expires at 2PM. Another advisory has been issued for a cell near Bluff and Winfield in Northwestern Fayette County until 2:15PM with the same threats. All of the rain is moving slowly to the east-northeast.

TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR: Here is a list of temperature observations from across the area at this hour:

Birmingham 91
Tuscaloosa 93
Gadsden 91
Anniston 91
Cullman 89
Jasper 95
Alexander City 94
Selma 91
Montgomery 92

CODE YELLOW AIR QUALITY: The Air Quality Index for the Birmingham Metropolitan Area is in the “Code Yellow” for ozone and particulate matter 2.5. Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

TODAY’S CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high for August 26th is 89, while the normal low is 68. The record high for today was set back in 1943 at 103. The record low was set back in 1966 at 55.

REMAINDER OF TODAY: Another hot and humid day expected for Central Alabama this afternoon, with a small risk for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Latest HRRR is showing the better rain chances north of the I-20 corridor. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s. The odds of any one spot getting rain today will be around one in four.

WEEKEND WEATHER: Much of the same news for the weekend, as it looks like the typical summertime weather pattern will be in place for a while. It will be hot and humid, with partly clear skies, and a small risk for widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will mostly be in the low to mid 90s. The odds of any one spot getting rain will be around one in four.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: The weather looks great on the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through the weekend, with mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only widely scattered showers or storms. Highs will be in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low to mid 90s inland. The weather next week will depend on what happens with 99L, and if there is any impact (and that remains a big “IF”), it should be over by the Labor Day weekend. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

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TROPICAL STORM GASTON: This storm is beginning its turn back out to open water, as it is headed to the north-northwest at 17 MPH. Maximum sustained winds at this time are at 65 MPH. Gaston is still expected to become a hurricane again at some point today, but will be no threat to land and recurve well east of Bermuda and back out into the open water.

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INVEST 99L: Strong winds aloft are continuing to wreak havoc on this wave as shear is keeping any development from happening. Model data is not especially helpful right now since there is no way the system can be initialized with no low level center or structure. Each batch of runs will continue to do the hokey pokey.

Concerning global models, the Euro (ECMWF) brings a very weak system across the Florida Peninsula, and then out into the Atlantic well east of Alabama. The GFS brings a weak system up toward the Central Gulf Coast toward the middle of next week, and the Canadian (GEM) brings a slightly stronger system toward Panama City Beach early next week. All three can’t be trusted for the same reason mentioned above at this time. There is a very real chance that 99L never develops into a depression or storm. And, if it does, few models show much beyond a weak tropical storm. Rain would be the main issue is land is impacted. All we can do at this time is just keep watching to see if anything can survive the sheared environment it is in now.

ON THIS DAY IN 1989: Anchorage, AK, was soaked with a steady rain, and the 24 hour total of 4.12 inches smashed their previous 24 hour precipitation total of 2.10 inches. It also pushed their rainfall total for the month past their previous record for August.

THE BLOG IS ON TWITTER: Be sure to follow the Alabama Wx Weather Blog on Twitter. Just click here to start following our feed.

WEATHERBRAINS: This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. You can listen anytime on the web, or on iTunes. You can find it here.

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Innovation, Inspiration & Not-To-Miss Events – Captured By Our Alabama NewsCenter Friends

| August 26, 2016 @ 10:51 am

It was a week of innovation and inspiration in Alabama this week and our friends at Alabama NewsCenter captured it all.  Here is a look back at the good news of the past seven days, as well as a look forward at this weekend’s can’t miss events across our state, including 10 movies (and more!) not to miss at this weekend’s Birmingham Sidewalk Film Festival.

Portrait of Alabama football legend Kenny Stabler unveiled in Tuscaloosa

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Special international model to kick off Birmingham Fashion Week

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Spending the night in search for ghosts in Tuscaloosa’s Drish House

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Ernst & Young: Alabama ranks in Top 5 for investment

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Innovation Week: Birmingham tech sector offers entrepreneurs ‘room to run’

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Velocity Accelerator offers Birmingham ‘boot camp’ for start-ups at Innovation Depot

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1 Million Cups of Coffee makes its Alabama debut for Innovation Week

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Dr. Josh Klapow: Dealing with back-to- school and other transition stressors

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Maybach 6 shows what’s possible when Mercedes goes extravagantly electric

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NASA wants to bring enterprise to the Space Station

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UAB study finds potential treatment target for Guillain-Barré syndrome

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10 movies and more not to miss at this weekend’s Birmingham Sidewalk Film Festival

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‘Boyhood’ star Ellar Coltrane brings ‘By the River’ to Birmingham’s Sidewalk Film Festival

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Southern Research hires Jim Pannucci to lead infectious disease research

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Huntsville targets Dream Chaser landings as Sierra Nevada ties grow

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Austal USA hosts USNS Yuma christening in Mobile

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BJCC master plan opts for open-air stadium over a dome

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Hear from the Alabama running back with two 99-yard touchdown runs in one game

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Bitter playoff loss fuels Tuskegee football team for 2016 season

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Samford aims in 2016 to build on wins from last season

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University of South Alabama looks to bounce back after rebuilding year

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Alabama A&M aims to make noise in the SWAC in 2016

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Cotton Clark has fond memories of playing for ‘the Bear’ and Crimson Tide

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UAB athletes seek victory in both sports and community service

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East River Trading created a business from whole cloth in Alabama’s Wiregrass

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Ensley Renaissance Festival: Business owners say rebirth is more than hype

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Filmmakers hit the Sidewalk, dragons hit the water and UFOs take to the skies in Can’t Miss Alabama

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Crawfish Pie from Faunsdale Bar & Grill one of 100 Dishes to Eat in Alabama Before You Die

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Alabama year-to- date home sales through July up 6 percent over last year

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Mobile 2Q home sales up 8 percent over same period in 2015

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Lee County home sales through July up 9 percent over last year

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Morgan County home sales through July up 3 percent over last year

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Calhoun County year-to- date home sales through July up 21 percent

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Cullman July home sales up from June

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Hot/Muggy Weekend Ahead; Eyes On The Tropics

| August 26, 2016 @ 6:25 am

NO HEAT RELIEF: An upper ridge across the Deep South isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, meaning our weather won’t change much through at least early next week. For today and the weekend, expect partly sunny, hot, humid days with widely scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s, generally in the 91-95 degree range.

We note that next Thursday (September 1) marks the beginning of meteorological fall, but don’t expect any magical cool down. The autumnal equinox comes on September 22, and your odds of an airmass change become much higher by then. Keep in mind the hottest temperature on record in Alabama (112 degrees, recorded at Centerville) came on September 5, 1925.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL WEATHER: A few widely scattered showers and storms will be in progress across Alabama this evening; chance of any one high school stadium seeing rain around kickoff is about one in five. Most of the showers will end by 8:00 p.m… temperatures will be in the low 80s at kickoff, dropping into the upper 70s by the final whistle. Humidity values will remain sky high tonight.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Gaston, in the Central Atlantic, is expected to reach hurricane strength again today, but it will recurve into the open Atlantic east of Bermuda, and is no threat to land.

NHC has also identified a weak disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico, well south of Louisiana, but that is not expected to develop.

Great weeping and gnashing of teeth continues over “Invest 99L”, which is really hard to define this morning over the Southeast Bahamas due to strong winds aloft, which continue to shear the system. NOAA P3 (hurricane hunter aircraft) is currently in the vicinity measuring atmospheric conditions.

*Model data is not especially helpful right now since there is no way the system can be initialized with no low level center or structure. Each batch of runs will continue to do the hokey pokey.

Screen Shot 2016-08-26 at 6.18.39 AM

*Concerning global models, the Euro (ECMWF) brings a very weak system across the Florida Peninsula, and then out into the Atlantic well east of Alabama. The GFS brings a weak system up toward the Central Gulf Coast toward the middle of next week, and the Canadian (GEM) brings a slightly stronger system toward Panama City Beach early next week. All three can’t be trusted for the same reason mentioned above at this time.

*There is a very real chance that 99L never develops into a depression or storm. And, if it does, few models show much beyond a weak tropical storm. Rain would be the main issue is land is impacted.

All we can do at this time is just keep watching to see if anything can survive the sheared environment it is in now.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Despite all this tropical weather talk, the weather looks great on the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through the weekend, with mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only widely scattered showers or storms. Highs will be in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low to mid 90s inland. The weather next week will depend on what happens with 99L, and if there is any impact (and that remains a big “IF”), it should be over by the Labor Day weekend. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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Hot, Humid Days; Eyes On The Tropics

| August 25, 2016 @ 3:29 pm

RADAR CHECK: We have a random pattern of widely scattered showers and storms across Alabama this afternoon… they are drifting to the southwest.

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Away from the showers, temperatures are mostly in the low 90s with a partly sunny sky. The showers will fade quickly after sunset.

TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY: The upper ridge holds, and our weather just won’t change much. Partly sunny, hot, humid days with widely scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs mostly in the 91-95 degree range.

And, for now, we expect this kind of weather to continue well into next week, unless we have a surprise from the tropics.

EVERYBODY IS TALKING ABOUT 99L: I am convinced Invest 99L is the most publicized open tropical wave in history… partly because of social media, and partly because we haven’t had any hurricane activity around here in many years. Here is the latest this afternoon…

*Air Force Hurricane Hunters again today could not find a low level circulation. In fact, they found no tropical storm force winds and a very disorganized system. It is hanging on for dear life due to a high amount of shear within the atmosphere in the vicinity of the wave, and interaction with Hispaniola.

*There is a very real possibility 99L never develops into a tropical storm or hurricane. But, if the thing can survive, shear values are lower over the Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and SSTs (sea surface temperatures) are very warm, meaning it could try and get it’s act together there.

*Tropical models have shifted to the left today, which is to be expected with a weak, disorganized wave. Understand this model output doesn’t mean very much at this phase of the game.

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*The European global model (the ECMWF), suggests a weak tropical storm will form just off the west coast of Florida, moving northward toward Apalachee Bay. This scenario would bring lots of rain to the Florida Peninsula (not the panhandle), and keep the main impact east of Alabama. But again, this is just one possible scenario.

*Nobody at this point knows if 99L survives. And, if it does, nobody knows the track and intensity. We are all still in the “wait and see” mode. Interests in Florida and around the Gulf need to keep an eye on it.

GASTON: Now a tropical storm in the Central Atlantic, this one will recurve east of Bermuda and is no threat to land.

AT THE BEACH: About 8 to 10 hours of sunshine daily on the Gulf Coast from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach through the weekend, with the usual risk of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low to mid 90s inland. Sea water temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Twitter
Google Plus
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I had a great time today visiting with a large home school group in Tuscaloosa at Covenant Presbyterian Church… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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Midday Nowcast: Hot & Humid Again in Central AL, While Gaston is Confused

| August 25, 2016 @ 12:52 pm

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Skies are mostly clear across Central Alabama at this hour, but a few scattered showers have popped up on radar. Most of the shower activity was located over northeastern Tuscaloosa and southern Walker Counties, with a few spotty showers located near Oneonta in Blount County. These are slowly moving to the southwest.

TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR: Here is a list of temperature observations from across the area at this hour:

Birmingham 90
Tuscaloosa 90
Gadsden 90
Anniston 90
Cullman 90
Jasper 95
Alexander City 90
Selma 88
Montgomery 90

CODE YELLOW AIR QUALITY: The Air Quality Index for the Birmingham Metropolitan Area is in the “Code Yellow” for ozone and particulate matter 2.5. Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

TODAY’S CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high for August 25th is 89, while the normal low is 68. The record high for today was set back in 1938 at 102. The record low was set back in 1916 at 57.

REMAINDER OF TODAY: Another hot and humid day expected for Central Alabama this afternoon, with a small risk for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will be in the low 90 degrees for the most part, with a few places flirting with the mid 90s. The odds of any one spot getting rain today will be around one in four.

FRIDAY’S WEATHER: Much of the same news for tomorrow, as it looks like the typical summertime weather pattern will be in place for a while. It will be hot and humid, with partly to mostly clear skies, and a small risk for widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will mostly be in the low 90s, with a few spots reaching the mid 90s. The odds of any one spot getting rain will be around one in four.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: The weather looks great for the Central Gulf Coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through the weekend; about 8 to 10 hours of sun daily with only widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 80s, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

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TROPICAL STORM GASTON: Gaston became a hurricane earlier this morning, but has just recently been downgraded back to tropical storm status. Gaston is expected to become a hurricane again as it moves northwest before making the curve back out into the open Atlantic well before reaching Bermuda and away from the Atlantic coast.

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INVEST 99L: Of course, this is the tropical wave that currently has everyone’s attention. Currently, no low level circulation has been found within the wave, and until that circulation develops, inconsistency will be shown by the models because they do not know where or how to initialize the system. This is still very early in the game, and too early to know the track and intensity, if it develops at all. If it does develop, its name will be “Hermine” (her-MEEN).

ON THIS DAY IN 2005: Before making landfall in South Florida close North Miami Beach, Katrina became a hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 80 MPH. Over 1.3 million customers were without power, and losses were estimated from $600 million to $2 billion in the state of Florida. Eleven people were killed by Katrina in Florida.

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Benign Weather For Alabama; Active Tropics

| August 25, 2016 @ 6:25 am

HOT, HUMID DAYS: An upper ridge will hold across Alabama and the Deep South through the weekend, meaning little day to day change in our weather. Partly sunny, hot, humid days with just a few widely scattered showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, generally between 2 and 8 p.m. Highs in the 91-95 degree range for most communities. If you are looking for cool, crisp air, August in Alabama is not the time or the place for that.

Of course, next week’s weather will be determined by the tropical weather situation, but at the moment it sure looks like any issues will be east of Alabama, meaning our weather will pretty much remain the same.

TOPIC: TROPICS: Gaston finally achieved hurricane status this morning in the Central Atlantic; it will recurve over open water and is no threat to land.

The most curious feature remains “Invest 99L”, which is near Hispaniola. I would suggest this might be the most discussed open tropical wave in history thanks to social media and some clickbait sites.

Screen Shot 2016-08-25 at 6.15.10 AM

Here is the latest…

*A NOAA P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft is investigating 99L early this morning; we will know more about the structure of the system soon.

*Until we get a well defined low level circulation center, computer models will struggle with initializing the system, and model output will remain suspect. However, there is pretty decent agreement among tropical and global models this morning.

*The wave will move up toward the Florida peninsula, and whether it stays an open wave, or becomes a depression or storm, the main impact initially will be the threat of heavy rain over the weekend for Central and South Florida.

*Most models turn the wave northward east of Alabama, keeping the main rain shield over Florida and Georgia.

AL99_current

*Should the center stay over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, this could indeed grow stronger, perhaps to hurricane strength. But, if the center remains over the Florida Peninsula, it will be mainly a big rain-maker.

*Please understand great uncertainty remains, so keep up with current blog discussions and info from NHC. All of this could change.

*If 99L gets a name, it will be “Hermine”… (Her MEEN)

AT THE BEACH: The weather looks great for the Central Gulf Coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through the weekend; about 8 to 10 hours of sun daily with only widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 80s, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

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I am speaking to a home school group in Tuscaloosa this morning… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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