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Drier Air Arrives Wednesday

| 3:36 pm June 27, 2016

RADAR CHECK: Another afternoon of scattered, strong, slow moving storms across Alabama. Some spots are getting very heavy rain…

Screen Shot 2016-06-27 at 3.27.18 PM

But, of course, some are getting no rain at all. Pretty much feast or famine when it comes to rain on summer afternoons in Alabama. Away from the storms, temperatures are in the low 90s. Showers and storms will fade away later tonight.

TOMORROW: A surface front will push into North Alabama; the best chance of showers and storms will be along and south of U.S. 278, or south of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. We can’t promise rain for everyone, but like recent days some communities will see a heavy downpour. Best chance of a shower or thunderstorm will come during the afternoon and evening hours, and the high will be close to 90 degrees.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRDIAY: Dry air drops in from the north, and the chance of showers on these three days for the northern half of the state is very small. Scattered storms are still possible over South Alabama, but even there they should be pretty widely spaced. Highs will be close to 90 degrees Wednesday and Thursday with slightly lower humidity values; low 90s are likely Friday. Days will be mostly sunny, nights mostly fair.

FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND: Moisture levels will slowly rise, setting up a very routine mid-summer weekend. Partly sunny, hot, humid days and the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms” Saturday through Monday with highs in the 91 to 95 degree range. Chance of any one spot getting wet each afternoon will be about one in three, with potentially higher chances Monday.

TROPICS: All is quiet across the vast Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week.

AT THE BEACH: We project about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine daily this week on the coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores with the chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm from time to time. Highs will be in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with 90s inland. The sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is a warm 87 degrees.

Too early to be specific about next week, but for now we don’t see anything out of the ordinary. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT…. you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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A Little Relief Ahead

| 2:04 pm June 27, 2016

Our Satellite Expert, Sheldon Kusselson, promises some rain from all this high moisture air over Alabama ahead of a cool front that will bring a little relief from the super muggies by Wednesday and Thursday.

Alabama Wx blog for June 27, 2016

Thanks Sheldon!

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Midday Nowcast: Hot With Strong Storms Possible This Afternoon

| 11:56 am June 27, 2016

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Skies across Central Alabama at this hour is mostly clear, and almost everyone is currently. I say almost because shower activity has started developing, as a shower is currently on the Cullman-Morgan County line just north of West Point.

Radar

It is generally drifting to the southwest and could affect West Point and South Vinemont if it holds together.

Temps

Temperatures across the area are already well up into the 80s, and those will be expected to climb into the low to mid 90s today.

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TODAY’S WEATHER: A cold front will be approaching the northern parts of the state by the late afternoon hours, and with the boundaries that are left over from Sunday, scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected. A few storms could be strong to severe from 2PM-9PM. The SPC has defined areas north of a line stretching from just below Tuscaloosa to just below Birmingham to just below Gadsden under a Marginal Risk for severe storms through the day. Wet microbursts and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will be possible with these storms. Localized flash flooding could occur as the precipitable water values are expected to be over 2 inches over much of North Alabama, which means some places could receive up to 2 inches of rain. Otherwise, skies will be mostly sunny to partly mostly cloudy across the area, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices could reach or exceed 100F, so please take it easy outside.

CODE YELLOW AIR QUALITY: The Air Quality Index for the Birmingham Metropolitan Area will be in the “Code Yellow” (moderate range) for particulate matter. People who are unusually sensitive should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

TODAY’S CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high for June 27th is 89, while the normal low is 68. The record high for today was set back in 1988 at 100. The record low was set back in 1974 at 50.

TUESDAY’S WEATHER: As the front slowly pushes through North Alabama, a good chance for scattered showers and storms will remain likely along and ahead of the front. Areas along and south of the I-20 corridor will have the better chances for rain. Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds with afternoon highs at or near 90.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine daily this week on the coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores with the chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm from time to time. Highs will be in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with 90s inland. The sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is a warm 87 degrees. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

THE TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week.

WEATHERBRAINS: This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. Tonight, we will be talking Oklahoma weather with the folks from OK First. You can listen anytime on the web, or on iTunes. You can find it here.

ADVERTISE WITH US: Deliver your message to a highly engaged audience by advertising on the AlabamaWX.com website. The site enjoyed 10.2 MILLION pageviews in the past 12 months. Don’t miss out! We can customize a creative, flexible and affordable package that will suit your organization’s needs. Contact me, Bill Murray, at (205) 687-0782 and let’s talk.

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Scattered Strong Storms Later Today

| 6:38 am June 27, 2016

BACK IN THE SADDLE: Thanks to my associates for filling in last week; it was a vacation week that was much appreciated.

HOT, MUGGY WEATHER: The overall weather situation won’t change much for Alabama today. Hot, humid, more scattered strong, slow moving storms this afternoon and early tonight. SPC has the northern half of the state in a “marginal risk” this afternoon; like recent days the main threat will come from wet microbursts (localized areas of damaging straight line winds) and small hail.

We note the precipitable water values are expected to be over 2 inches over North Alabama this afternoon; this means storms will dump very heavy amounts of rain, and due to their lack of motion, some flooding is very possible.

hrrr_pwat_birmingham_15

At this early hour, there is no meteorologist, computer model, or phone app that knows exactly when and where the storms will fire this afternoon. They pop up in rather random, scattered locations. Your neighbor might see 2 inches of rain, and you won’t get a drop (or vice versa). Main window for storms will come from about 2:00 until 9:00 p.m.

We note Birmingham soared to 100 degrees yesterday; first time a 100 degree high has been recorded officially since August 23, 2013. We expect a high in the low 90s for most places today as heat levels begin to fall a bit.

TOMORROW: A surface front will push slowly through North Alabama. Highest coverage of scattered storms should be along and south of I-20, and the high will be close to 90 with a mix of sun and clouds.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Drier air will cover the northern two-thirds of Alabama on these days, meaning mostly sunny days, fair nights, and slightly lower humidity values. Showers will be confined to the southern part of the state, and even there they should be widely spaced. Afternoon highs will be close to 90 Wednesday and Thursday, with low 90s likely Friday.

FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND: Moisture levels will slowly rise, and it looks like a very typical early July weekend in Alabama. Partly sunny, hot, humid days, and the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. Highs should be in the 91 to 95 degree range Saturday through Monday, and the chance of any one spot getting wet each day will be about one in three.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week.

AT THE BEACH: We project about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine daily this week on the coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores with the chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm from time to time. Highs will be in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with 90s inland. The sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is a warm 87 degrees.

Too early to be specific about next week, but for now we don’t see anything out of the ordinary. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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Strong Storms in the Birmingham Metro

| 4:55 pm June 26, 2016
Composite reflectivity which shows precipitation at all levels.  This look more impressive than what is reaching the ground, but shows suspended precip that can come down shortly.

Composite reflectivity which shows precipitation at all levels. This look more impressive than what is reaching the ground, but shows suspended precip that can come down shortly.

Several strong storms are located across the Birmingham Metro at this hour.

They developed in the intense heating of the day where the mercury reached at least 98F at the Birmingham Airport and 96F at the Shelby County Airport. Intersecting boundaries and waves in the atmosphere played a role as well.

At 455, they extend from Pinson through Roebuck to Vestavia and over into northeastern Shelby County north of Sterrett then to west of Alabaster and Montevallo with additional storms near Calera.

The storm in northeastern Shelby County will have to be watched as a well defined outflow boundary is about to intersect with it, which should lead to intensification.

Watch for lightning and be prepared for strong wind gusts to over 60 mph if any of the storms briefly become severe. Heavy rain will also be possible but flooding doesn’t look like much of an issue.

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East and West Storms

| 1:48 pm June 26, 2016

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Showers and storms have developed across West Central Alabama and along the Georgia border, in the more favored areas from an instability standpoint. There are numerous from Franklin County southward through Fayette, Pickens and Western Tuscaloosa Counties on into Greene and Hale Counties. Same with the storms along the Georgia border in eastern Cleburne and Randolph Counties.

Instability is high all across the area, with CAPE values expected to be over 3,000 joules/kg. Wind shear is nearly nil, so storms won’t have much organization. But here is a significant amount of dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere. This will give the potential for damaging downburst winds this afternoon that could lead to severe weather. Preciptable water values are not especially high, but storms could produce enough rainfall to cause flash flooding, like in Cherokee County last evening. Hail should not be a threat, with freezing levels at high altitudes, around 15,000 feet.

The storms won’t move very much for sure, with steering currents blowing at less than 10 mph from the northwest, so they will drift southeastward southeastward.. It looks like about 40-50 percent of the area could see storms this afternoon.

HEAT ADVISORY: A heat advisory is in effect for West Central Counties of the state from Marion and Winston Counties southward to Marengo and Dallas. The NWS just added Autauga, Barbour, Bullock, Chilton, Jefferson, Lowndes, Montgomery, Pike and Shelby to the advisory.

MOVING AHEAD IN TIME: The high pressure ridge will shift westward and a trough will begin to develop over the eastern United States. This will allow a cold front to approach Alabama. Showers and storms will fire on Monday afternoon ahead of the cold front and will drift southward into the Central part of the state tomorrow evening. Tuesday, the front will be drifting south, and it appears the best focus for storms will be over the Central part of the state. The front should push into South Alabama on Wednesday, giving drier conditions to the middle of the state on Wednesday and Thursday. Enough moisture should return on Friday for widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms to return. Then another front will approach the state from the north of Saturday, increasing chances of showers and storms again.

DANCING WITH THE STATS: Anniston’s 100 degree reading yesterday was a record for the date, breaking the old record of 98F set in 1978. The 97F at Birmingham was tied for the 8th hottest June 25th at Birmingham. Interestingly, the high on June 25, 1979 was only 69F as unseasonably cool high pressure was dominating much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. It was 63F at that morning at BHM and 57F at Nashville.

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Another Hot One Before a Break

| 7:11 am June 26, 2016

As the upper ridge to our west holds on across mainly the western half of Alabama, the NWS in Birmingham has gone ahead with another heat advisory for today generally west of the I-65 corridor. Look for highs to once again climb into the middle and upper 90s across Central Alabama, and the heat will again generate afternoon thunderstorms. As we saw yesterday, a few of these storms may be severe with damaging wind the greatest threat.

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Beautiful weather is in store for beachgoers to the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida for the next couple of days. Expect plenty of sunshine, with only an isolated afternoon and evening shower or thunderstorm. Highs will be near 90 degrees each day, while lows will be in the middle 70s. Rain chances go up at midweek, but thunderstorms will not create a complete washout. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was 89 degrees.

SPC maintains a marginal risk for organized severe storms generally along the front stretching from the eastern Great Lakes area into the Texas Panhandle for today, Day 1. Day 2 and 3 each feature an area of slight risk in western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. And the tropical weather picture remains quiet with no specific areas of concern.

The heat ridge will slowly ebb westward Monday and Tuesday as a large upper closed low traverses southern Canada. This upper low will gradually dig out a trough over the eastern half of the US to complete a pattern shift by the latter half of the week. A surface front will be approach the Southeast US on Monday helping to increase thunderstorm coverage for us. The front moves into South Alabama on Tuesday which should also bring some better rain chances to all of Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches will be possible in parts of Central and South Alabama over the next five days with the best chances coming Monday and Tuesday. With the presence of more thunderstorms as well as clouds, we should see the highs held to the lower 90s.

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Wednesday and Thursday we should see dry weather. With dew points forecast to be lower – generally in the lower 60s – highs in the upper 80s are possible and that lower humidity will help make it feel not quite as hot.

The upper air pattern will flatten by Friday as we see moisture levels rise once again. This means a return to those heat-driven afternoon and early evening thunderstorms as we head into the weekend. Highs should climb into the lower 90s again.

While we are under the northwesterly flow during the middle and latter part of the week ahead, we will have to be vigilant for the development of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the Central US. These thunderstorms clusters can travel hundreds of miles and completely bust a forecast, but there is no skill this far in advance to specify the time and location of their occurrence. Knowing that this pattern will exist keeps us alert to their formation and makes us ready to make adjustments to forecasts as needed.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS maintains a trough across the eastern US until July 9th. From the 9th to the 11th, the pattern gradually morphs back into a ridge over the Mississippi River Valley. This ridge does not appear to be quite as strong as the one we’re just coming out of, but it does mean a return to warmer than typical temperatures.

James Spann is expected back from his vacation on Monday morning with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. Please be aware of the heat and use common sense to stay hydrated and to not overdo it with your outside activities. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Flash Flood Warning Cherokee County

| 8:47 pm June 25, 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

6-25-2016 8-48-43 PM

* AT 846 PM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
LITTLE RIVER CANYON NATIONAL PRESERVE…BLANCHE…
LITTLE RIVER FALLS…NEW MOON…
BROOMTOWN AND LITTLE RIVER CANYON NP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TURN AROUND…DON’T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning Cherokee County

| 8:18 pm June 25, 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

6-25-2016 8-20-56 PM

* AT 817 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BLANCHE…OR
NEAR LITTLE RIVER CANYON NATIONAL PRESERVE…MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT…HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS…SIDING…AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
LITTLE RIVER CANYON NATIONAL PRESERVE…GAYLESVILLE…BLANCHE…
LITTLE RIVER FALLS…FULLERTON…CHESTERFIELD…BROOMTOWN…
NEW MOON AND LITTLE RIVER CANYON NP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

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Observation Confirms the Heat

| 1:58 pm June 25, 2016

The observation at the Birmingham Shuttlesworth International Airport reach 97 just before the 1 pm observation time, and that temperature establishes today as the hottest day so far in 2016. And that may go even higher yet. Remember, there is a heat advisory in effect until 9 pm this evening, so be sure to factor in the heat with whatever you plan to do outside.

Radar also showed isolated showers developing in that afternoon heat across North and Central Alabama. Very few spots were getting any rain. One shower developed very close to my weather station which produced a few large drops on my driveway as well as a temperature drop of 10 degrees. Unfortunately, the humidity went up and the temperature has recovered most of those lost degrees as the shower move away from my location.

Another hot day tomorrow, but there is a pattern shift coming that promises some slightly cooler weather along with some lower humidity at midweek.

-Brian-

BMX

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