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Severe Storms Possible Thursday

| 6:26 am March 22, 2016

ANOTHER FRIGID MORNING: Here are some temperatures early this morning across the great state of Alabama…

Black Creek (just northeast of Gadsden) 26
Valley Head 28
Haleyville 29
Gadsden (Noccalula Falls) 30
Cullman 30
Fort Payne 30
Concord 30
Coker 31
Centre 31
Helena 32
Anniston 33
Tuscaloosa 34
Birmingham Airport 36

We warm up very nicely today; we reach the 67-70 degree range this afternoon with sunshine in full supply. Clouds begin to increase tomorrow as moisture returns, but the day will stay dry with a high in the upper 60s/low 70s for most places.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY: SPC has defined a “slight risk” of severe weather for the northern two-thirds of Alabama Thursday…

AL_swody3

A deep surface low (around 990 mb) will be over the Great Lakes, with a trailing cold front supported by a deep upper trough. Biggest limiting factor for severe storms will be instability; surface based CAPE values will struggle to rise to the 500-1000 j/kg range over North Alabama. But, dynamics are very good with a low level jet of over 50 knots, and 0-1 km storm relative helicity values in excess of 200 m2/s2.

TIMING: The primary threat of severe storms will come from 12:00 noon until 8:00 p.m. Thursday.

PLACEMENT: Highest risk of severe storms will come in the “slight risk” area over North and Central Alabama. The risk decreases over far South Alabama as upper support will be much more limited there.

MODES: The main issue will be from strong straight line winds associated with the thunderstorms, although an isolated tornado is certainly possible with the higher SRH values.

RAIN AMOUNTS: Rain totals of 1/2 to 1 inch are expected, not enough for flooding issues.

FRIDAY: The day will be sunny and cool; mid 30s are possible in colder pockets early Friday morning with potential for some scatted light frost. The high Friday afternoon will be in the mid 60s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We will continue to lean toward the European model’s dry solution for Saturday and mention just a small risk of rain, mainly for South Alabama, with a high in the low 70s. Sunday looks pretty wet statewide with periods of rain likely, along with a thunderstorm or two. Severe storms are not expected, and rain amounts Sunday should be in the 1/2 to 1 inch range. We hold in the 60s all day Sunday due to clouds and rain.

NEXT WEEK: The first half of the week looks dry with pleasant days and cool nights… then we will have a chance of showers/storms returning Thursday (March 31), we will have to monitor that one for severe potential as it gets closer. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Dry through tomorrow along the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach, but showers/storms return Thursday. Then, Friday will be dry, followed by a risk of more rain over the weekend ahead. Sea water temperatures remain very cool; only 60 degrees early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab; that will limit the air temperatures on the immediate coast. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

STORM SPOTTER TRAINING: We are offering basic SKYWARN training at several locations across North/Central Alabama in March, followed by the big event, Storm Spotter Xtreme on Saturday, April 9 at the BJCC from 9am to 2pm. This will feature both the basic and advanced SKYWARN classes, along with a session from Kevin Laws of the Birmingham NWS office. And, if you come, you get free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show, going on at the BJCC that same day. There is no cost and no need to register. Just show up with a curious mind. Kids 10 and older will also enjoy this if they love weather and want to learn more. Please help us make the severe weather warning process better!

We are in Tuscaloosa this evening!

FS BASIC STORM SPOTTER TRAINING AFTER MARCH 21

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Another Cold Night Ahead

| 3:20 pm March 21, 2016

BACK INTO THE 30s: Tonight will be just about as cold as last night, if not colder for some places in East Alabama with a clear sky and light wind. A freeze warning is up for much of East Alabama, with frost advisories in effect elsewhere…

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TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: The weather will be dry with a warming trend with afternoon temperatures in the 67-70 degree range both days. Sunshine in full supply tomorrow, but there will be an increase in clouds Wednesday as moisture begins to return.

THURSDAY: A deep surface low will be over the Great Lakes region, with a trailing cold front pushing a band of showers and storms into Alabama during the day. SPC has defined a severe weather risk for about the northern two-thirds of the state…

day4prob

Surface based CAPE values aren’t too impressive, generally under 1,000 j/kg for this part of the state, but there will be a good bit of dynamic forcing, and we could very well have strong storms with potential for very gusty straight line winds. Seems like the main window for stronger storms will come from 12:00 noon through 6:00 p.m. Thursday.

FRIDAY: Dry air returns, and the day should feature sunshine in full supply. Friday morning will be cold with lows in the mid to upper 30s along with some risk of scattered frost. The high will be in the low 60s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Forecast confidence is not especially high with conflicting model output. The European is dry Saturday, and the 12Z run of the GFS is trending dry for the northern half of the state, suggesting any showers will be over far South Alabama. If the dry solution is correct and we see some sun, temperatures should rise into the low 70s.

It now looks like the best chance of rain over the weekend will come on Sunday; both models are in pretty good agreement. Probably not a severe weather setup; rain amounts of around 1 inch are likely.

NEXT WEEK: Monday will feature a clearing sky, and the weather will stay dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Looks like the next shower/storm event will come around Thursday March 31; that could be a situation where severe thunderstorms are possible. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Dry weather continues through Wednesday with sunny days and fair nights; showers and storms will return Thursday along the coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

STORM SPOTTER TRAINING: We are offering basic SKYWARN training at several locations across North/Central Alabama in March, followed by the big event, Storm Spotter Xtreme on Saturday, April 9 at the BJCC from 9am to 2pm. This will feature both the basic and advanced SKYWARN classes, along with a session from Kevin Laws of the Birmingham NWS office. And, if you come, you get free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show, going on at the BJCC that same day. There is no cost and no need to register. Just show up with a curious mind. Kids 10 and older will also enjoy this if they love weather and want to learn more. Please help us make the severe weather warning process better!

We will be at the River Market in Tuscaloosa tomorrow evening at 6:30…

FS BASIC STORM SPOTTER TRAINING AFTER MARCH 21

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch online here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today seeing all the students at Greenwood Elementary… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Frosty Spring Morning

| 6:19 am March 21, 2016

LATE SEASON COLD SNAP: Here are some temperatures reported across Alabama right before sunrise…

Black Creek (near Gadsden) 28
Jasper 30
Fayette 30
Cottondale 30
Russellville 30
Oxford 31
Concord 31
Cullman 32
Gadsden (Noccalula Falls) 32
Valley Head 32
Decatur 32
Scottsboro 32
Jemison 33
Sycamore 33
Birmingham Airport 33
Huntsville 34
Anniston 34
Tuscaloosa 36
Coker 36

Temperatures in the 30s are being reported all the way down into Deep South Alabama; Mobile is at 39 degrees at 6:00 a.m.

Today will be sunny with a high in the upper 50s for most communities.

MORE FROST EARLY TOMORROW: We drop back into the 30s late tonight, and frost is likely in many places early tomorrow. In fact, frost should be more widespread with a calm wind. Colder pockets will see a freeze again. Growers/gardeners will need to keep their cold weather preparations going.

TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: The weather will be dry and warmer with a high back in the upper 60s both days. Tomorrow will be a sunny day; then expect a mix of sun and clouds Wednesday.

THURSDAY: SPC has defined a risk of severe storms for about the northern two-thirds of Alabama…

day4prob

A deep surface low will be near Detroit, with a trailing cold front moving into Alabama. In a setup like this, the main threat will come from strong straight line winds associated with thunderstorms ahead of the front. For now, instability values don’t look especially high, but dynamics are good. Rain amounts of about 1 inch are likely, not enough for flooding issues.

FRIDAY: Drier air returns, and this day should be sunny with a high in the mid 60s. But, Friday morning will be cold with a low down in the 30s, and once again we will deal with potential for frost across North/Central Alabama. Growers will need to keep an eye on temperature forecasts.

THE WEEKEND: Wet weather returns. The next wave will bring rain to the state Saturday, and it looks like it will linger into at least part of the day Sunday. Not a severe weather threat, but a decent part of the day Saturday for now is looking wet. Highs will be in the 60s both days.

NEXT WEEK: Dry air returns Monday with sunshine in full force, but the latest (06Z) GFS run shows a dynamic weather system in here by Wednesday (March 30) with potential for strong to severe storms. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Dry, cool weather is the story through Wednesday from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach with sunny days and fair nights; showers and storms return Thursday. The sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is a cool 57 degrees… that will keep air temperatures on the immediate coast pretty cool. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

STORM SPOTTER TRAINING: We are offering basic SKYWARN training at several locations across North/Central Alabama in March, followed by the big event, Storm Spotter Xtreme on Saturday, April 9 at the BJCC from 9am to 2pm. This will feature both the basic and advanced SKYWARN classes, along with a session from Kevin Laws of the Birmingham NWS office. And, if you come, you get free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show, going on at the BJCC that same day. There is no cost and no need to register. Just show up with a curious mind. Kids 10 and older will also enjoy this if they love weather and want to learn more. Please help us make the severe weather warning process better!

We will be in Tuscaloosa tomorrow evening…

FS BASIC STORM SPOTTER TRAINING AFTER MARCH 21

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
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I have a weather program today at Greenwood Elementary in Bessemer… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Dry Through The Weekend; Still Cold Today

| 6:08 am February 10, 2016

FRIGID MORNING: Here are some temperatures at daybreak across the great state of Alabama…

Black Creek (just northeast of Gadsden) 14
Millport 16
Russellville 16
Concord 17
Bessemer 18
Gadsden 18
Cullman 19
Valley Head 19
Centre 19
Haleyville 20
Jemison 20
Tuscaloosa 22
Anniston 22
Center Point 22
Lake View (Tuscaloosa County) 23
Birmingham Airport 24

THE DAY AHEAD: Our weather will be cold, dry, and breezy today with a good supply of sunshine; we project a high in the low 40s for most communities this afternoon. Some places north of Birmingham will stay in the 30s all day.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: The weather stays dry; we are forecasting a partly sunny sky both days with a high in the mid 50s. A cold front will pass through Friday afternoon in dry fashion.

COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND: Another surge of cold air arrives Friday night, and Saturday will be sunny but cold with a high only around 40 degrees along with a chilly north wind. We will drop down into the low 20s early Sunday, followed by a high in the mid 40s Sunday afternoon. The air stays dry, and the sky will remain mostly sunny. But, clouds will increase Sunday night.

WINTER ISSUES EARLY MONDAY? The next wave will bring precipitation into Alabama Monday morning, and there is still a window for a “wintry mix” over the northern third of our state as the day begins. However, there is great uncertainty as you might expect five days in advance. The GFS remains bullish on the idea of a short term mix of sleet, freezing rain, and maybe a few snow flakes, but the ECMWF (European) model is slower, and has trended warmer, with just rain on Monday for our state.

mon_6a

Just be aware of some potential for icy travel early Monday morning, otherwise the day looks cool and wet with periods of rain and a high in the 40s. We do note a cold air damming (CAD) pattern in place, and with colder air over North Georgia, that might open the door for some significant icing for parts of our neighboring state to the east. Check out the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: The upper air pattern begins to flip, and we should turn considerably warmer by mid to late week with afternoon highs rising into the 60s.

KBHM_2016021000_min_max_16

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I have a weather program this morning at Duck Springs Elementary in Etowah County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Snow Showers/Flurries End This Evening

| 3:03 pm February 9, 2016

COLD NIGHT AHEAD: The weather across Alabama today behaved as expected; the most numerous snow showers have been over the northeast counties, where a few spots have measured over one inch. Marshall, Jackson, DeKalb, and Cherokee Counties remain under a “winter weather advisory” due to the potential for slick/icy spots…

Screen_Shot_2016-02-09_at_2_22_44_PM

There has been basically no impact from the snow flurries for places like Birmingham, Anniston, Gadsden, and Tuscaloosa, as expected. Flurries and snow showers will end this evening across the state as the sky becomes clear. We drop into the low 20s early tomorrow, some of the colder pockets could see upper teens.

TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: Cold air stays in place tomorrow; despite sunshine in full supply the high will be only in the low 40s. Then, we begin to warm Thursday with a high between 55 and 58 degrees along with a partly sunny sky.

A cold front will pass through Friday; it will bring scattered clouds, but it looks like the air will be too dry for any rain. The high Friday will drop back to near 50 degrees.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Another surge of colder air will arrive just in time for the weekend. Expect a sunny sky Saturday and Sunday, but highs will be only in the 40s. And, the coldest morning will come early Sunday; most communities will see a low between 20 and 23 degrees, with upper teens for colder valleys and protected areas.

WINTER MISCHIEF MONDAY? The next wave will bring precipitation into the state Monday morning, and thermal profiles will be close to supporting an initial mix of freezing rain, sleet, and maybe a few snow flakes over parts of North Alabama. Understand there is absolutely no way to resolve details on a system like this six days away… it could be just a cold rain, or we could have some type of winter weather impact for the Monday morning commute over the northern third of the state. Just understand this possibility is on the table, and we will fine tune the forecast in coming days. But, for now, we will mention a “wintry mix” Monday morning, followed by rain Monday afternoon with a high in the 40s. Check out the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps, graphics, and more details.

WARMER DAYS: A pattern change is in the cards, and it sure looks like we will enjoy warmer weather in the February 17-24 period with highs well up into the 60s; we might even touch 70 degrees one afternoon.

KBHM_2016020912_min_max_16

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I had a great time today speaking to the students at Appalachian School in Blount County… be watching for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Windy, Cold, Flurries

| 5:40 am February 9, 2016

AT DAYBREAK: Temperatures are below freezing generally from U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden) north… with mid 30s for the I-20 corridor (Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston). Light, scattered snow flurries continue, but we have heard of no travel issues or impact so far.

THE DAY AHEAD: The NWS Huntsville is continuing a “winter weather advisory” for Jackson and DeKalb Counties in Northeast Alabama…

Screen_Shot_2016-02-09_at_4_38_26_AM

The overall idea for today has not changed. We will maintain the chance of snow flurries and snow showers, and where heavier convective snow showers develop, there could be some light accumulation. And, the best chance of this is over high terrain of Northeast Alabama, especially above 1,200 feet.

snow2

For most of you, any snow flakes today will be a no impact event, but we will need to keep an eye on possible slick spots over the northeast counties of the state through the morning.

The day will be cold and windy; most places from Birmingham north won’t get out of the 30s, and a strong west/northwest wind of 15-30 mph will keep the wind chill index at or below freezing.

TONIGHT: Winds will die down after midnight, and the sky becomes clear. Tomorrow morning will be the coldest morning of the week, with low 20s in most places, but colder communities could reach the upper teens.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: These two days will be dry with a good supply of sunshine; the high tomorrow will be in the low 40s, but we rise into the 50s Thursday afternoon.

FRIDAY FRONT: A cold front will pass through the state Friday; it might squeeze out a few sprinkles during the morning hours, but the air will be very dry, and the chance of measurable rain for now looks very small. The GFS is printing a high of 53 for Birmingham Friday afternoon.

MORE COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND: A very cold, 1048 mb high will drop southward into the U.S., and we project cold and dry weather Saturday and Sunday with highs only in the 40s. Sunday morning will be very cold with a low close to 20 degrees… valleys and protected areas should see teens.

MONDAY: A wave will bring a chance of rain back to the state early next week. It is possible we could see a window for a little winter mischief early in the day, but the 00Z GFS and Euro runs are suggesting this will be a mostly rain event for our state, and we will lean that way in the forecast.

LONG RANGE: A flip to a positive AO (Arctic Oscillation) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) sure bring credibility to the idea of a warmer pattern for the southern U.S. in 10-15 days. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I have a weather program this morning at Appalachian School in Blount County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Much Colder; Snow Showers/Flurries

| 3:34 pm February 8, 2016

COLD, BLUSTERY PATTERN: A deep upper trough over the eastern U.S. will deliver a healthy dose of very cold Arctic air into Alabama tonight through Thursday morning. We won’t get out of the 30s tomorrow, and a strong west/northwest wind of 15-30 mph will keep the wind chill index at or below freezing most of the day. Looks like the coldest morning will come early Wednesday, with a low in the 19-23 degree range for most communities across North/Central Alabama.

SNOW: While the cold is the big headline, we all know people in Alabama are more curious about the snow potential. We expect occasional snow flurries and snow showers in the cold air advection pattern tonight into tomorrow morning; snow flurries have already been reported at Florence this afternoon, up in the northwest corner of the state.

TIMING: Snow showers and snow flurries are possible across North and Central Alabama mainly from 9:00 tonight through 12:00 noon tomorrow.

ADVISORIES: The National Weather Service in Huntsville has issued a winter weather advisory for Jackson and DeKalb Counties in far Northeast Alabama for late tonight and tomorrow…

Screen_Shot_2016-02-08_at_2_33_19_PM

ACCUMULATION/IMPACT: As we mentioned here this morning, the best chance of accumulation (1/2 to 1 inch) will come across the high terrain (above 1,200 feet) of Northeast Alabama. Most places across North/Central Alabama will see little if any accumulation and little impact. But, understand we will be dealing with convective snow showers, and like rain showers on a summer afternoon, they tend to be scattered and random. So, there could be a few spots where heavy snow showers form to make the ground white, and a few isolated slick spots could form on roads after 4:00 a.m. We project temperatures to be below freezing from 3:00 a.m. until 9:00 a.m.

snow2

I would advise getting up extra early tomorrow, turn on ABC 33/40, and get an update on road conditions. For most of you, there won’t be any impact, but a few isolated problems are possible, as stated above.

LATER THIS WEEK: We begin to warm up Thursday afternoon as we rise into the low 50s. Then, clouds increase Thursday night ahead of a cold front, and a few sprinkles are possible Friday morning as the front passes through. Moisture will be very limited, and rain, if any, should be light.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: More cold air settles into the state Saturday and Sunday thanks to a big 1048 mb high passing north of here. Highs drop into the low to mid 40s, and we will be close to 20 degrees early Sunday morning (colder pockets should visit the teens). The air will be dry, and the sky should be sunny both days.

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I had a great time today visiting with the kindergarten students at Munford Elementary… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Notes On The Cold/Snow

| 6:47 am February 7, 2016

As discussed here for days, the northern half of Alabama will experience a shot of very cold Arctic air tomorrow through Wednesday. And, during the cold air advection process, there is a pretty good chance of snow flurries or snow showers late tomorrow, tomorrow night, into Tuesday.

Here are some important notes about this…

*TIMING: Some scattered light rain/sprinkles will begin during the day tomorrow across North Alabama, and as the air aloft becomes much colder, this precipitation will change over to snow flurries or snow showers tomorrow afternoon. This will continue tomorrow night and Tuesday.

*IMPACT/ACCUMULATION: Basically no impact or accumulation is expected for several reasons. Shallow moisture and weak lift means the snow should be very light in most cases, and surface temperatures will be above freezing a decent part of the time. We will just need to keep an eye on high terrain across Northeast Alabama, especially above 1,500 feet, where the ground could turn white in a few places, and a few slick spots could develop where heavier snow showers fall.

nam_3hr_snow_acc_se_25

Up in the far northern part of the state, some light accumulation is possible mainly from Huntsville east (1/2 inch or less).

TEMPERATURES: The cold air is the big story. Temperatures will begin to fall tomorrow afternoon (we won’t get past the mid 40s during the day), and on Tuesday we start the day in the upper 20s, and the high will be only in the 36-39 degree range with a chilly northwest wind. It is beginning to look like our coldest morning will come early Thursday, when teens will be possible across colder valleys.

KBHM_2016020706_min_max_16

We have had so many tragic fires this winter; please be careful with space heaters or anything else that might spark a house fire.

MEMORIES: Anyone remember the song “The Way We Were” from 1974?

“Memories
May be beautiful and yet
What’s too painful to remember
We simply choose to forget”

The truth is people in Alabama DO remember the painful snow event on January 28, 2014, and the horrible impact forecast from the weather community. Understand we have a limited skill set in dealing with winter weather, and any forecast can go wrong, like any football coach can lose a game. But the circumstances in this event won’t be anything like 1.28.14; on that day we had 2 inches of snow with temperatures at 20 degrees. The ice accretion progress on roads is radically different at 20 degrees (as we learned the hard way), compared to 30-35 degrees we will mostly have tomorrow night through Tuesday.

So, no significant accumulation or impact is expected, and the forecast confidence is pretty high. But, we will watch developments closely and keep you posted.

Some Icing Tomorrow – Far North Alabama

| 3:26 pm January 19, 2016

THIS AFTERNOON: Temperatures are generally colder than forecast; again today some North Alabama communities are below freezing at mid-afternoon; temperatures are near 40 along the I-20 corridor. Clouds will increase this evening ahead of a wave that will bring the potential for some icy travel to far North Alabama tomorrow morning.

TOMORROW: The NWS Huntsville continues a “winter weather advisory” for Lauderdale, Limestone, Madison, Jackson, and DeKalb counties for tomorrow morning.

Screen Shot 2016-01-19 at 2.35.25 PM

A band of light freezing rain will move through the Tennessee Valley early tomorrow, and with surface temperatures expected to be at or below freezing, that could bring some ice patches on roads and bridges. We should note some sleet and snow could also be in the mix, especially over the northeast corner of the state.

And, I can’t rule out a bit of freezing rain/ice patches on roads as far south as U.S. 278 early tomorrow… Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden.

Understand this won’t be an especially high impact event, but it could very well bring some icy travel, and if you are driving through the northern third of the state tomorrow morning from 3:00 until 10:00, be aware of the potential.

We do not expect anything other that some light rain at times for Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston, where temperatures will rise into the mid 40s by afternoon.

THURSDAY: A more potent storm system will impact the state with rain and a few thunderstorms. A deepening surface low will move from near Shreveport to Muscle Shoals; we might even see a few strong to severe thunderstorms in the warm sector. SPC has a “marginal” severe weather risk defined for much of Louisiana and Mississippi tomorrow, but for now we don’t expect any severe weather in Alabama. But, you clearly might hear some thunder. Rain amounts of 1 inch are likely by Thursday night, and temperatures will rise into the upper 50s Thursday afternoon.

FRIDAY: The surface low moves northeast, setting up a whopper of a snow storm for the eastern U.S. Here in Alabama, strong northerly winds will develop, and temperatures should fall during the day, reaching the 30s by mid to late afternoon. Lingering light rain in the wrap around moisture on the west side of the low could very well change to light snow or snow flurries late Friday and Friday night, but for now the potential for any accumulation looks very low, and we project no impact.

fri_night_s

SATURDAY: The day will be blustery and cold in Alabama; we won’t get out of the 30s, and we could see a few lingering snow flurries during the morning.

BLOCKBUSTER SNOW FOR THE EASTERN U.S.: Sure looks like somebody from West Virginia through Virginia and over to Maryland could see two feet of snow Friday into Saturday; the snow will continue northeast and impact other cities like Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston, although amounts should be lighter there. This will seriously impact travel, both on the roads, and at airports.

snow_eps

SUNDAY IN ALABAMA: The day will be sunny, and the afternoon will be warmer with a high in the low 50s. After starting the day down in the low 20s.

NEXT WEEK: Still seeing evidence of rain by Monday night or Tuesday, and another pop of colder air by Wednesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I had a great time today visiting with the kindergarten students at Weaver Elementary in Calhoun County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Very Active Weather Through Friday

| 6:18 am January 19, 2016

FRIGID MORNING: Check out these temperatures around sunrise across Alabama…

Valley Head 12
Black Creek (just northeast of Gadsden) 12
Russellville 14
Fort Payne 14
Cullman 15
Haleyville 15
Sycamore 16
Gadsden (Noccalula Falls) 17
Cottondale 17
Concord 18
Anniston 18
Birmingham 19
Opelika 19
Coker 21
Jemison 21

Today’s high will be around 40, but areas north of Birmingham, for the second day in a row, won’t make it out of the 30s. The sky will be mostly sunny, but clouds will begin to increase by mid to late afternoon.

ICY TRAVEL FOR FAR NORTH ALABAMA EARLY TOMORROW: The NWS in Huntsville has issued a “winter weather advisory” for some of their counties up in the Tennessee Valley for early tomorrow morning due to the potential of light freezing rain. There might be some sleet, and even a little snow involved.

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A touch of freezing rain is possible as far south as U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden) early tomorrow. So, if you are over the northern third of the state, just be aware of the potential for some icy spots on roads and bridges tomorrow morning, mainly from 3:00 a.m. until temperatures rise above freezing by mid-morning.

For the cities of Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston, we expect just some patchy light rain tomorrow with no icy travel.

THURSDAY: A more significant weather system will bring widespread rain, and a few thunderstorms, to Alabama Thursday and Thursday night as a surface low moves from near Shreveport to Muscle Shoals. No severe weather is expected, and rain amounts of around one inch are likely. Temperatures will rise well into the 50s Thursday; a few spots could touch 60 degrees.

SNOW FLAKES FRIDAY: The deepening surface low will move northeast of Alabama (setting up a huge winter storm for the eastern U.S.), and around here the day will be breezy and colder with temperatures falling through the 40s, reaching the 30s by afternoon. Lingering light rain will change to light snow or snow flurries over much of North and Central Alabama, but temperatures will be above freezing, and for now we don’t expect any impact, and accumulation potential is low.

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BLOCKBUSTER EASTERN U.S. WINTER STORM: Here is a look at the European model ensemble, showing potential for more than one foot of snow Friday/Saturday…

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Somebody is going to hammered by this; there will be a bullseye somewhere around West Virginia/northern Virginia/Maryland with over two feet of snow. But, very significant, high impact snow is likely for the big cities of Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston. Travel in these places will become very difficult by Friday night and Saturday. Travelers beware.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will be cold and dry; despite a good supply of sunshine the high will be only around 40 degrees. Then, expect a warmer day Sunday with lots of sun and a high in the low 50s.

NEXT WEEK: Some light rain could return as early as Monday; beyond that there is a huge difference between the GFS (which shows a big rain Tuesday), and the ECMWF (which shows nothing)… so confidence is low. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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I will be doing a weather program today at Weaver Elementary in Calhoun County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!