Tag: colder

Very Cold Air By Friday; Wintry Precipitation??

| January 4, 2017 @ 6:32 am

TRENDING COLDER: The first surge of colder air moves into Alabama today; temperatures will hover around 50 degrees much of the day with a sky featuring more clouds than sun. No rain expected. Tomorrow will be dry and cool with a partly sunny sky and a high between 52 and 55 degrees for most places.

FRIGID FRIDAY: Things begin to get interesting Friday as true Arctic air arrives; it looks like temperatures will hover in the 30-34 degree range all day with a cloudy sky… this is some of the coldest air we have experienced so far this winter season. Very cold air is a certainty, but everybody wants to know about potential for wintry precipitation in the cold air, and that is the focus of this discussion.

METEOROLOGICAL SETUP: Most model guidance suggests the atmosphere will be cold enough for snow over the northern half of the state during the day Friday, but with limited moisture. Seems like two separate areas of precipitation will initiate Friday; some light snow over North Alabama with an upper feature, and rain for the southern half of the state as a weak low pressure area forms in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

The most widespread precipitation will most likely come Friday night over the southern two-thirds of the state, with potential for some snow/sleet/freezing rain on the northern periphery across Central Alabama. It all ends early Saturday morning as the low lifts northeast.

There is decent agreement in the big picture, but huge model differences in the small scale details which will determine the actual weather and impact for any given point. So, I have decided to hold off on putting together an accumulation potential/placement map until this afternoon; the local weather enterprise will conference early this afternoon and do our best to give you a unified message later today.

IMPORTANT POINTS: Long time readers/viewers know I like to tell people what we know, and I don’t tell them what we don’t know. So… this is what we know this morning…

*Moisture over the northern half of the state will be pretty limited, so snow amounts, if any, will most likely be light, under 1/2 inch (if you see snow at all).

*There is some chance, we we see phasing between the two precipitation areas Friday night, a heavier strip of wintry precipitation could develop over Central Alabama, but there is no way now of knowing exactly where that happens. And, this could be more sleet and freezing rain than snow. Guidance from NOAA’s WPC hints freezing rain problems could develop Friday night along I-85 from Montgomery toward Opelika. Freezing rain is simply rain that falls with temperatures at or below 32 degrees at the surface.

*In terms of travel impact, light snow Friday morning could bring a few icy spots to North Alabama. But, the highest potential for icy travel issues should come Friday night with temperatures drop into the 20s over the northern half of the state.

*Sure, anything can happen, but this it NOT an analog to January 28, 2014 (snowmageddon). Snow was falling with temperatures near 20 degrees during that event; the ice accretion process on roads, as we have learned, is radically different with surface temperatures that cold. Temperatures will be in the 29-34 degree range Friday/Friday night. Yes, some icy travel is very possible, but it won’t be like the horrible day in January 2014.

*Be sure and check the blog later today for updates… please don’t work with old information as you make plans, especially if you are traveling. And, speaking of traveling, higher probabilities of over 3 inches of snow are east of Alabama, across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas (their snow comes Saturday)…

*Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps, graphics, and more details on this event!

VERY COLD WEEKEND: The sky becomes partly sunny Saturday, and Sunday will be bright and sunny, but the weather will be very cold. We won’t get out of the 30s Saturday, and the low early Sunday and Monday will be in the 17-22 degree range.

NEXT WEEK: We start to warm up Monday afternoon, and the latest global model output shows a chance of rain returning to the state Wednesday with a short wave trough approaching.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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Cold Air On The Way; Winter Mischief?

| January 3, 2017 @ 3:07 pm

THIS AFTERNOON: Temperatures are mostly in the 60s across the great state of Alabama this afternoon, and we are seeing breaks in the overcast with some sun breaking through.

COLDER DAYS AHEAD: Colder air begins to roll into Alabama tonight; many communities across North Alabama will hold in the 40s tomorrow with a chilly north wind, and like today the sky will feature more clouds than sun. Thursday will cool and dry with a partly sunny sky; the high Thursday afternoon will be in the low 50s.

ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY: The next phase of the big chill arrives at the end of the week; most North/Central Alabama communities will hold in the 30s all day with a cloudy sky. And, with an approaching upper trough and developing low in the northern Gulf, the stage is set for some winter weather issues for the Deep South.

New global model data remains inconsistent; the American global model paints a strip of heavier snow across Central Alabama, while the European shows lighter snow mainly over North Alabama. The new 18Z NAM model (North American Mesoscale) tends to support the European idea.

Forecast model soundings show the atmosphere will be certainly cold enough for snow over the the northern third of the state, with rain for the southern counties. A mix of rain, sleet, and snow is possible in the middle of the state.

Undestand we are dealing with an event several days away, and it simply too early to draw conclusions about accumulation potential, and the placement of snow. Just be aware that some accumulating snow is possible for the northern half of Alabama Friday, Friday night, and early Saturday, and there could be some travel impact.

With each day the forecast will be more certain, and more specific. And, be sure and check the blog often for updates; you won’t want to have old information if you need to travel across Alabama or the Deep South late this week. Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

THE WEEKEND: Cold air will stay in place after the departing storm system; expect a clearing sky Saturday with a high only in the mid to upper 30s; Sunday will be sunny with a high between 40 and 44. Early morning lows will be close to 20 degrees, with teens likely for colder spots early Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS is printing a low of 19 degrees for Birmingham early Monday; then we start to warm up, and mid 50s are possible by Tuesday afternoon. For now the first half of the week will be dry.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s episode tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live here.

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Much Colder Tomorrow; Complex Weekend Forecast

| December 14, 2016 @ 6:41 am

COOL TODAY, COLD TOMORROW: Low clouds blanket Alabama early this morning; we expect the sky to become partly sunny this afternoon with a high in the mid to upper 50s. Then, an Arctic front blows in here in dry fashion tonight, and will bring another surge of sharply colder air tomorrow. The high tomorrow will be only in the 41-45 degree range despite a sunny sky, and a significant freeze is likely early Friday with most places dropping into the mid 20s.

The sky will be partly to mostly sunny Friday with a high in the mid 50s.

COMPLICATED WEEKEND FORECAST: The air over Alabama will undergo a very quick change Saturday as a stiff southerly wind sets up ahead of an approaching storm system. The latest guidance is now suggesting temperatures surge into the low to mid 70s Saturday afternoon, with developing showers during the day, especially Saturday afternoon. It will be a very balmy December day.

An Arctic front will enter North Alabama late Saturday night, setting up a very interesting period of weather for the state with two distinct threats…

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS: SPC has introduced a risk of severe storms for parts of West Alabama for Saturday night and early Sunday morning, including places like Muscle Shoals, Hamilton, Fayette, Jasper, Tuscaloosa, and Demopolis. Dewpoints will surge into the mid 60s late Saturday and Saturday night, making the air unstable with surface CAPE values to 750 j/kg in spots.

For now, it looks like the main window for severe storms will come from about 10:00 Saturday night through 10:00 Sunday morning, mainly west of I-65 (west of places like Cullman, Birmingham, and Clanton). A few storms during this time frame could produce gusty winds and hail, and an isolated tornado can’t be totally ruled out. We will be able to fine tune this forecast as we get closer to the weekend.

WINTRY MIX??? Temperature forecasting on Sunday will be a nightmare with a strong Arctic front moving through the state. At midday Sunday, we could very well have a 50 degree thermal gradient across Alabama, with 30 degrees at Muscle Shoals, and 80 degrees at Dothan.

If you are in a place like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, or Anniston, you will probably wake up with temperatures in the upper 60s, feeling more like a summer morning. But, by the time you walk out of church a 30 degree drop is likely with a very cold north wind. People that don’t pay attention to the weather will be totally unprepared.

And, as the cold air rushes in Sunday, there seems to be some chance the rain could change to a “wintry mix” of sleet or freezing rain before the precipitation ends. This idea is still being presented by the GFS model.

A few important points…

*The cold air initially will be very shallow, so it is very unlikely that there will be any snow flakes involved if there is a changeover.

*If we do see some freezing rain or sleet, it won’t last long, and the infrastructure will be warm from Saturday’s high in the low to mid 70s.

*The reliable European model (the ECMWF) shows the rain ending with no issues with freezing rain or sleet Sunday.

Bottom line is that there is some outside chance we could see some freezing rain or sleet over the northern third of Alabama (mainly north of U.S. 278) Sunday, but if that does happen we expect little or no impact at this point. Take some time to see the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps, graphics, and more details.

On the positive side, we expect rain amounts of 1-2 inches over the weekend. No, that won’t end the drought, but it will be beneficial.

NEXT WEEK: Monday for now looks cold and dry, then we warm up a bit with a good rain event shaping up later in the week in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. Too early to know if that will bring any threat of severe storms to the state. And, for now, temperatures look seasonal around Christmas weekend with highs in the 50s…

REMEMBER: This IS the tornado season in Alabama. Our two core peaks here come in spring, March, April, and May… and late fall/early winter… November and December. Having severe storms at Thanksgiving and Christmas is not unusual.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Cold Tonight; Warmer By The Weekend

| February 24, 2016 @ 3:17 pm

RADAR CHECK: Showers are still moving eastward through Central Alabama this afternoon; a few patches of blue sky are showing up, but the sky remains generally cloudy.

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As expected, temperatures have been falling through the 40s with a strong west wind of 15-25 mph. Haleyville is down to 38 degrees at mid-afternoon.

TONIGHT: The showers will wind down, but a few snow flurries are possible over the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama. In fact, some sleet and snow have been reported up there this afternoon. No impact with surface temperatures staying above freezing.

TOMORROW: We project a partly sunny sky with a high between 50 and 55 degrees; the wind will be much lighter.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: While early morning temperatures will be at or just below freezing early Friday and Saturday morning, afternoons will show a warming trend. The high Friday will be in the mid 50s, close to 60 Saturday, followed by mid 60s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: A weak surface front will bring the risk of a few showers Monday, but rain amounts should be light and spotty. A much more significant storm system will impact Alabama by mid-week, this could very well have the potential to bring strong to severe storms by Wednesday or Wednesday night. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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STORM SURVEY: NWS Birmingham has determined that an EF-1 tornado touched down yesterday afternoon in Marion County, southwest of Hackleburg. It was down for only four minutes. Damage at Ross Bridge (western part of Hoover) was the result of straight line winds of around 50 mph.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Windy, Colder, Some Rain At Times

| February 24, 2016 @ 6:20 am

DIFFERENT KIND OF DAY: The severe weather threat is over for Alabama, and in the wake of the rain and storms last night we will experience a raw, cold day with some light rain at times. Temperatures will go the wrong way; we are seeing mostly 50s at daybreak, but readings will fall through the 40s during the day. A strong west wind of 15-25 mph will make it feel colder.

TONIGHT: We drop into the 30s, and a few snow flurries are even possible across far North Alabama, mainly near the Tennessee border. No impact is expected with temperatures holding above freezing.

TOMORROW: Morning clouds will give way to a partly sunny afternoon; the high will be in the 50-55 degree range. We should note that clouds could hang tough all day over the extreme northern part of the state.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Sunny days, fair nights. Friday and Saturday morning will be cold with temperatures at or below freezing, but afternoons will reflect a warming trend. The high Friday will be in the mid 50s, followed by 60 degrees Saturday, and mid 60s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: A weak surface front will bring the chance of a few showers Monday, but it doesn’t look like a big rain event. A more significant system will impact the state Wednesday night and Thursday; that one will need to be monitored for strong/severe thunderstorm potential. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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PENSACOLA DAMAGE: A significant tornado touched down in the northeast part of Pensacola last night; NWS Mobile will do the storm damage survey this morning. There were injuries, but no fatalities to my knowledge at this point. John Oldshue is shooting drone video and I will post that when it becomes available.

Here in Alabama, possible small, spin-up tornadoes (that lasted only a few minutes) caused some damage in Ross Bridge (western part of Hoover), Reform (Pickens County), and Hackleburg (Marion County).

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Cold Air Returns Tonight

| February 12, 2016 @ 3:01 pm

MILD FEBRUARY AFTERNOON: Temperatures have soared into the mid 60s across much of North/Central Alabama this afternoon with a good supply of sunshine. But, don’t get used to this since a new surge of very cold air will roll into the state tonight.

BIG DROP: Tomorrow will be about 25 degrees colder; the high will be close to 40 degrees, and most communities north of Birmingham won’t make it out of the 30s despite a sunny sky. We are forecasting a low in the lower 20s early Sunday, but colder valleys and protected areas could reach the upper teens. Then, Sunday will be dry with a partly sunny sky and a high at or just over 50 degrees.

Clouds thicken quickly Sunday night ahead of an approaching wave that will bring a soaking rain to the state Monday.

NEXT WEEK: Rain should arrive after midnight Sunday night into early Monday morning, and we might hear of some reports of sleet as the precipitation begins, but temperatures should be above freezing, and no impact from winter weather is expected in Alabama. It just looks like a soaking rain for the state Monday and Monday night as a surface low tracks right on top of us; rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely, and some down in South Alabama could hear some thunder.

The weather will be dry for the rest of the week; we are forecasting a high in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by 60s Thursday and Friday. Some places might touch 70 degrees Friday February 19. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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JUST A REMINDER: Although the latter half of February looks pretty mild, we always have sharp cold snaps in March and April, and some of the biggest snows have happened late in the season as well. Winter isn’t over.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I had a great time today speaking to the students at Helena Middle School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here Monday morning by 7:00 a.m… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Much Colder; Snow Showers Ahead

| February 8, 2016 @ 6:16 am

THIS MORNING: It is a quiet morning across Alabama with temperatures across north and central counties mostly in the upper 30s and low 40s. A few patches of light rain, or rain showers, are possible later this morning with temperatures rising into the 46-50 degree range by early afternoon.

MUCH COLDER AIR BLOWS IN: Temperatures should begin to fall across far North Alabama later today with a gusty north wind, and that Arctic shot will drop southward tonight and tomorrow, setting up a very cold Tuesday. A good chance we won’t get out of the 30s, and a north wind of 12-25 mph will keep the wind chill index around freezing most of the day.

THE “S” WORD: Anytime the word “snow” is used in an Alabama forecast, it tends to set off a firestorm complete with wild rumors, bad information, and fear of a catastrophe like January 28, 2014. Let’s go beyond the little picture of a snow flake on your phone app and lay it out.

TIMING: A few snow flurries or snow showers could begin across the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama this afternoon, but for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden, the best chance of seeing a few flakes will come tonight and tomorrow morning.

PLACEMENT: The more numerous snow showers will come over Northeast Alabama, but one could pop up just about anywhere over the northern half of the state tonight. And, these convective snow showers are similar to rain showers on a summer afternoon; they tend to be rather random and scattered. No way to resolve exactly where they form, or where streaks of more concentrated snow showers will develop. We will just have to watch radar trends.

IMPACT/ACCUMULATION: For most of you, this will be a no impact, no accumulation event. However, where a heavier snow shower develops, there could be some light accumulation on grassy areas (generally 1/4″ or less). A few spots across high terrain of Northeast Alabama (generally above 1,500 feet) could see 1/2 to 1 inch, but we stress this is for mountain top locations.

We will drop into the sub-freezing range tomorrow morning from about 3:00 a.m. until 9:00 a.m., and where heavier snow showers form it is possible a few icy patches could develop. And, like we mentioned above, there is no way we can tell you where the heavier showers will crank up. I would get up a little early tomorrow and flip on ABC 33/40, or check the blog, for an update on possible road problems.

But, I stress, for most of you this will be a no impact, no accumulation event.

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ADVISORIES: There are no winter weather advisories of any kind in Alabama… but to the northeast there are “winter weather advisories” for East Tennessee and far North Georgia…

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MEMORIES: Anyone remember the song “The Way We Were” from 1974?

“Memories
May be beautiful and yet
What’s too painful to remember
We simply choose to forget”

The truth is people in Alabama DO remember the painful snow event on January 28, 2014, and the horrible impact forecast from the weather community. Understand we have a limited skill set in dealing with winter weather, and any forecast can go wrong, like any football coach can lose a game. But the circumstances in this event won’t be anything like 1.28.14; on that day we had 2 inches of snow with temperatures at 20 degrees. The ice accretion progress on roads is radically different at 20 degrees (as we learned the hard way), compared to mostly 30s we will mostly have tonight and tomorrow.

REST OF THE WEEK: Wednesday and Thursday morning will be very cold, with lows not far from 20 degrees, and teens for colder locations. The high Wednesday afternoon will be close to 40, and we have a decent chance of rising into the 50s Thursday.

We might consider a risk of rain showers Friday with another cold front passing through the state, but moisture will be very limited, and any precipitation should be very light.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A big 1048 mb high drops south into the Upper Midwest, and more cold air pushes into Alabama. Saturday and Sunday will be cold and dry; highs 40-44 degrees both days. Sunday morning will be very cold; the 00Z GFS is printing a low of 19 degrees for Birmingham.

LONG RANGE: Global models hint the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) could go positive in 10 days or so, giving us an opportunity for warmer weather toward the end of February. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it here.

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I have a weather program this morning at Munford Elementary School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Colder Today; Some Clearing This Afternoon

| January 27, 2016 @ 6:09 am

RAIN PUSHING SOUTH: Rain continues to sag slowly southward across Alabama this morning… rain is falling in spots along I-20, but by midday almost all of the rain should be over the southern half of the state.

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Colder air has moved into North Alabama; some spots are at freezing, but the precipitation has moved out, and there are no winter weather travel issues.

We will be optimistic in the forecast and forecast gradual clearing this afternoon for the northern third of the state, but clouds will hang tough in many places. Expect a high today in the 48-52 degree range.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Sunny pleasant days, clear cold nights. Tomorrow morning should be the coldest, with upper 20s likely; the high tomorrow will be in the mid 50s, followed by mid to upper 50s Friday.

MILD WINTER WEEKEND: This will be one of the nicest weekends we have enjoyed in a while. Saturday will feature a sunny sky with a high in the mid 60s, and on Sunday we rise into the 66-69 degree range. Clouds will begin to increase Sunday, and we could see a few showers Sunday night ahead of a cold front.

The front will lose upper support, and drift into Alabama Monday with a risk of showers. Nothing widespread or heavy, and we stay in the 60s.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK: Interesting to note our friends at the Storm Prediction Center have put a decent part of Alabama in a severe weather risk on the “Day 7” convective outlook, which is for Tuesday, Tuesday night, and early Wednesday morning of next week.

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Global models develop a very dynamic weather system, that will bring big snow to the southern Rockies Sunday, and ultimately out across the High Plains and the Great Lakes. We will be in the warm sector of the system, and it certainly looks like a setup for strong to severe storms for parts of the southern U.S.

Understand there is no way we can be specific so far in advance, but just be aware of the potential for some active thunderstorms in here in 6 days or so. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

Colder air will follow the storms over the latter part of next week.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will actually produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it here.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…. enjoy the day!

Cold Air Rolling Into Alabama

| December 17, 2015 @ 2:58 pm

THIS AFTERNOON: The sun is shining brightly over much of North and Central Alabama, and the lingering clouds to the southeast will dissipate soon as dry air takes over. Temperatures are only in the low 50s in many locations.

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Tonight will be clear and cold; most communities will drop into the 32-35 degree range early tomorrow morning. Then, the day tomorrow will be sunny, but breezy and cool with a high around 50; many places north of Birmingham won’t make it out of the 40s despite the sunny sky.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Expect freezing temperatures both Saturday and Sunday morning, with lows in the upper 20s and low 30s. Dry air stays in place, so there will be a good supply of sunshine both days. The high Saturday will be mid 50s, and by Sunday we will approach 60 degrees.

NEXT WEEK: Moist air returns Monday along with the risk of a few showers. Then, mild and unsettled weather is the story Tuesday, Wednesday, and possibly into the day Thursday with occasional showers and thunderstorms along with high in the 60s. A dynamic weather system will have the potential to bring the threat of strong to severe storms to Alabama Wednesday, Wednesday night, and possibly Thursday, but it is way too early to know the extent and severity of the threat. Just something to watch closely since so many people will be traveling.

The GFS continues to show drier air moving into the state by the end of the week, suggesting Friday, Christmas Day, will be sunny with a high close to 60 degrees.

WHITE CHRISTMAS? Best best will be over the Rocky Mountain states and points west this year.

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FOOTBALL WEATHER: Jacksonville State will host Sam Houston State in the semifinals of the FCS playoff Saturday at Burgess Snow Stadium (3:00p CT kickoff)… perfect football weather is the story with a clear and cool day. Temperatures will fall from near 52 degrees at kickoff, to about 43 by the final whistle.

AT THE BEACH: Sunny days, clear cool nights on the Gulf Coast tomorrow through Sunday… warmer next week with showers and storms returning. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Colder Days Ahead

| December 17, 2015 @ 6:18 am

RADAR CHECK: Lingering showers continue in scattered pockets across Alabama early this morning…

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The rain will end from west to east over the next few hours, and sunshine returns this afternoon as dry air takes over. The day will be cooler; temperatures hold in the 50s all day.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Sunny cool days, clear cold nights. We will be close to freezing early tomorrow morning, and by daybreak Saturday we project lows in the 27-32 degree range. Sunday morning will be cold as well with a light freeze for most places. The high tomorrow will be close to 50, followed by mid 50s Saturday, and upper 50s Sunday. It will “feel like Christmas”.

NEXT WEEK: The week features a warming trend, and unsettled weather. A shower could break out as early as Monday afternoon, then we will deal with occasional showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday, and at least part of the day Thursday. With good upper support and unstable air in place, the door will be open for a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms along the way, but it is way too early to resolve specific details, or the magnitude of the threat. Afternoon highs return to the 60s; some spots could reach the low 70s by Wednesday or Thursday afternoon as the “El Nino blow torch” returns.

The American global model (the GFS) brings dry air in here by Christmas Day, suggesting a good supply of sunshine and a high around 60 on Friday December 25, but the European model (the ECMWF) isn’t exactly on board with that idea; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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FOOTBALL WEATHER: Jacksonville State will host Sam Houston State in the semifinals of the FCS playoff Saturday at Burgess Snow Stadium (3:00p CT kickoff)… perfect football weather is the story with a clear and cool day. Temperatures will fall from near 52 degrees at kickoff, to about 43 by the final whistle.

AT THE BEACH: Rain will end early this morning, then cool and dry weather is likely Friday through the weekend from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Frosty Mornings This Weekend

| November 13, 2015 @ 3:22 pm

COLD NIGHT AHEAD: We project a low between 30 and 35 degrees for most places early tomorrow, with 20s across the colder valleys. Freeze and frost warnings are in effect for much of North/Central Alabama…

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OUR WEEKEND: Dry air means a sunny sky tomorrow and Sunday; tomorrow’s high will be close to 60, followed by low 60s Sunday. Sunday morning will be cold again with frost likely.

NEXT WEEK: We rise into the upper 60s Monday with a partly sunny sky; to the west a major storm system will bring heavy snow to the Rockies, and a risk of severe weather over parts of Texas and Oklahoma.

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The dual threat of severe weather and flooding will continue on Tuesday west of Alabama, but around here the weather stays quiet with only a small risk of a shower; the day will be mild and breezy with high in the low 70s.

Still looks like the main band of rain and storms will push into Alabama Wednesday night and Thursday; the main upper support will be shunted well to the north of Alabama, and with limited instability it doesn’t look like a severe weather threat for us at this point. Rain amounts here should one in the 1-2 inch range, and drier air returns by Friday. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Clear and cold for tonight’s high school playoff games; temperatures will fall into the 40s.

Auburn hosts Georgia tomorrow at Jordan Hare Stadium (11:00a CT kickoff)… the sky will be sunny with temperatures rising from near 54 at kickoff to near 60 by the final whistle.

Alabama takes on Mississippi State over in Starkville at Davis Wade Stadium (2:30p CT kickoff)… the expect a sun filled sky. About 63 degrees at kickoff, falling into the mid 50s by the fourth quarter.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Sunny days, fair nights through the weekend. Morning lows will dip to near 50 degrees over the weekend… maybe 40s in spots. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Frosty Mornings Ahead

| November 13, 2015 @ 6:26 am

DRY THROUGH SUNDAY: We begin this day with a clear sky and temperatures in the mostly in the 40s; we do note Vic Bell up at Black Creek (just northeast of Gadsden) has dropped to 33. Expect sunshine in full supply today with a high in the low 60s.

For the weekend, days will remain sunny, and nights clear, but cold. A freeze warning is in effect for the northern third of Alabama late tonight and early tomorrow, with a frost warning down to I-20.

Screen Shot 2015-11-13 at 5.19.35 AM

Most communities will see a low between 30 and 35 degrees early tomorrow, but colder pockets will visit the 20s. Sunday morning will be just as cold. Highs over the weekend will be at or just over 60 degrees.

NEXT WEEK: Very active weather is likely west of Alabama, with the dual threat of severe storms and heavy rain over parts of Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana Monday and Tuesday… big snow is likely across the Rocky Mountain states. Around here, Monday will be dry with a high in the upper 60s, and any showers on Tuesday should be pretty isolated, and we rise into the low 70s.

Showers and storms finally move into Alabama late Wednesday into Thursday, but for now it doesn’t look like a severe weather setup here with the main dynamics shunted to the north. Rain amounts of 1-2 inches are possible before drier air returns Friday. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

KBHM_2015111300_min_max_16

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Clear and cold for the tonight high school playoff games; temperatures will fall into the 40s.

Auburn hosts Georgia tomorrow at Jordan Hare Stadium (11:00a CT kickoff)… the sky will be sunny with temperatures rising from near 54 at kickoff to 58 by the final whistle.

Alabama takes on Mississippi State over in Starkville at Davis Wade Stadium (2:30p CT kickoff)… the expect a sun filled sky. About 62 degrees at kickoff, falling into the low 50s by the fourth quarter.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Sunny days, fair nights through the weekend. Morning lows will dip to near 50 degrees over the weekend; See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!