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Much Colder Tomorrow

| 3:46 pm April 14, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

STILL WET TONIGHT: A flash flood watch remains in effect for most of Central and South Alabama through tonight as more rain will fall tonight ahead of a strong cold front. Additional rain amounts of around one are likely, and some minor flooding issues are possible, but nothing like the big event we had a week ago in the Birmingham metro area.

The good news is that SPC dropped the severe weather risk for North and Central Alabama earlier this morning; the risk of severe storms for tonight is confined to the far southern counties of the state, where there is better instability.

day1otlk_1630

The rain will end from west to east after midnight. Clouds hang tough, so no chance of seeing the lunar eclipse in Alabama. Sorry….

RAW, WINDY, COLD TOMORROW: It sure won’t feel like April tomorrow. Strong north winds of 15-30 mph will usher in some very cold air; the high will be only in the low to mid 50s, and some communities over the northern third of the state might not get out of the 40s. We project gradual clearing tomorrow afternoon as subsidence takes over.

FREEZE WEDNESDAY MORNING: The new run of the NAM model is printing a low of 28 degrees for Birmingham at daybreak Wednesday. We expect the range to be generally from 25 to 35 degrees, and growers will need to protect tender plants and vegetation. Some of the coldest valleys and protected areas (like Black Creek and Valley Head) could see low 20s. And, across higher terrain where temperatures stay above freezing, frost is likely.

A warming trend begins Wednesday afternoon with a high in the mid 60s. Thursday will be another sunny day with a high around 70 degrees.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: A disturbance will bring the risk of showers late Friday afternoon, Friday night, and possibly into Saturday morning. Upper support is not impressive, and severe weather should not be an issue. And, rain not especially heavy.

The surface front will stall out over Central Alabama Saturday along with a moisture axis. Rain on Saturday should be light and spotty, and there is no risk of severe weather. The high will be in the mid 70s, and the sky will be generally cloudy.

All of a sudden the 12Z GFS brings in a wave of low pressure along the front, and more rain into Alabama. This solution seems plausible and is accepted for this forecast package, so we will amend the forecast to include the risk of rain Sunday. The weather stays mild with a high well into the 70s.

NEXT WEEK: Drier air arrives Monday with a clearing sky, and mostly dry weather is likely for Tuesday and Wednesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

AT THE BEACH: A chance of showers and storms tonight, a few severe storms are possible from Gulf Shores over to Panama City. Then, clearing, windy, and cooler tomorrow with a high only in the low 60s. The weather will be dry through mid-week with sunny days and fair nights Wednesday and Thursday. Highs back in the 67 to 70 degree range on the immediate coast on these two days. Just a few scattered showers for Friday and Saturday; rain will be a little more likely Sunday.

WEATHER RADIO HELP: We will be at Academy Sports in Tuscaloosa on Skyland Blvd. Wednesday from 3:30 until 6:30 p.m. If you need your weather radio programmed, or have questions, come see us…

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show at 8:30 tonight; watch it live on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

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I enjoyed seeing the kids at Hokes Bluff and Chelsea Park Elementary Schools today… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Windy/Falling Temps Later Today

| 6:13 am March 12, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

ON THE MAPS: A strong cold front this morning was moving into the northern part of Tennessee; it will move steadily southward into Alabama later this morning. Ahead of the front, temperatures are relatively mild, with mostly low 60s at daybreak.

We expect a band of showers along the front late this morning; rain amounts will be under 1/4 inch. High resolution model data suggests the front will pass through Birmingham and the I-59 corridor around 12:00 noon.

hires_t2m_birmingham_12

WINDY AND COLDER: In the wake of the cold front, the afternoon will feature strong north winds averaging 15-30 mph. A wind advisory is in effect for all of Alabama except for the southeast corner of the state. And, temperatures will fall from the 60s late this morning, into the upper 40s by late afternoon.

FREEZE TONIGHT: The sky becomes clear tonight, and the wind will die down, allowing for temperatures to fall quickly. We project lows by daybreak tomorrow in the 26-32 degree range for most communities. Friday morning will be cold as well with potential for another light freeze in a few pockets; the low early Friday will be in the low to mid 30s.

Expect a sunny sky tomorrow and Friday. Tomorrow will be cool with a high in the low 50s, but we rise into the 60s Friday afternoon.

SHOWERY WEEKEND: Moist air returns to the state Friday night, and we will dodge raindrops at times over the weekend. It is impossible to tell you at this point exactly when the rain will start and stop, but a few showers or patches of light rain are possible as early as the pre-dawn hours Saturday morning. The latest GFS hints the rain will be a little more widespread by Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

We will hang on to the risk of lingering showers on Sunday as the moisture pool stays in place, and a cold front approaches from the north.

Some points about the weekend rain chances…

*It will not rain all weekend long
*The rain could come at any time over the weekend, however
*A little thunder is possible, but it will mostly rain showers
*No severe weather
*Rain amounts of 1/2 to 3/4 inch are likely

Highs over the weekend will be in the 60s.

NEXT WEEK: Drier air returns to the state Monday, and at this point next week looks generally dry with seasonal temperatures; highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s.

There is evidence the last 7-10 days of the month could be relatively wet, but at this point we still see no signs of any major severe weather issues. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I have a weather program this morning at Coldwater Elementary School in Calhoun County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day…

Windy/Colder Tomorrow; Rain Arrives Tonight

| 3:51 pm March 11, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WARM MARCH DAY: For some places, this is the warmest day so far in 2014 with temperatures well up in the 70s at mid-afternoon.

Temperatures

BIG CHANGES COMING: Rain is moving up into Southwest Alabama this afternoon, and rain should move through North-Central Alabama tonight. The high resolution NAM hints our main threat of rain with this lead short wave will come from about 7pm until 1am. Rain amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are likely; no severe weather, and probably no thunder. Just good ole fashioned rain.

Then tomorrow we will mention a chance of showers during the morning ahead of a strong cold front. Rain amounts should be light, and the showers should be over by midday. Following the front, strong northwest winds of 15-30 mph will bring down much colder air; NWS offices in Huntsville and Birmingham have issued Wind Advisories.

Temperatures will go the wrong way; we start the day in the low 60s, but we will fall quickly through the 50s, and wind up in the 40s by mid to late afternoon. The strong northwest wind will make it feel colder. A huge change from the calm, warm weather we are enjoying today.

FREEZING TEMPS RETURN: We project a low in the 26-32 degree range Thursday morning, and another light freeze is very possible early Friday. Thursday and Friday will be dry with a good supply of sunshine both days; the high Thursday will be around 50 degrees, followed by mid 60s Friday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The 12Z run of the GFS shows a pretty good chance of occasional showers Saturday. It won’t rain all day, but the rain could come at any time with a cloudy sky. Sunday looks drier, but a few lingering showers are certainly possible during the day. Highs over the weekend will be in the 60s; rain amounts in the 1/2 inch range are likely.

The first half of next week looks dry with seasonal temperatures (highs in the 60s, lows around 40). See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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I had a great time today visiting with the 2nd graders at Pinson Elementary… and the senior adults at Mt. Zion Baptist Church in Warrior today. Be looking for the kids from Pinson on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Rain Moving Out; Colder Air Moving In

| 6:16 am March 3, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

AT DAYBREAK: The good news is that I have heard of no icy bridges over Northwest Alabama early this morning; the rain moved out as the colder air was moving in. It is as cold as 33 degrees in Haleyville at 5:00 a.m. but most communities over Northwest Alabama are above freezing, in the mid 30s, and there are no travel issues being reported. The NWS had a couple of advisories going for parts of North Alabama, but those will be dropped soon.

The overall thermal contrast across the Deep South is pretty remarkable, with Montgomery reporting 62 degrees at 5a CT, while Memphis was at 17.

SE_Temp_Web

THE DAY AHEAD: Where temperatures are in the 30s over North Alabama, today’s high will be only around 40 degrees. To the south, where they are in the low 60s, temperatures will fall into the 40s and hold there throughout the day. Clouds will hang tough this morning, but a few communities might see a peek of sunshine this afternoon as drier air arrives.

We should mention a freeze is likely tonight for North/Central Alabama; the GFS and the NAM are printing lows in the upper 20s for Birmingham at daybreak tomorrow. Clouds will thicken during the day tomorrow with a high in the low 50s.

THE WEEK AHEAD: Very active weather continues; we will deal with two distinct waves this week that will bring a chance of rain to at least parts of Alabama.

WAVE NUMBER ONE: Rain will move into South Alabama late tomorrow afternoon and should be fairly widespread tomorrow night generally south of U.S. 80, or south of a line from Demopolis to Selma to Montgomery to Opelika.

Places like Birmingham, Anniston, Gadsden, and Tuscaloosa will most likely miss the rain from this wave as all of the wet weather stays just to the south tomorrow night. But, a little rain is possible as far north as Greensboro, Clanton, and Rockford.

Wednesday promises to be a pleasant day with a mix of sun and clouds and a high in the low to mid 60s.

WAVE NUMBER TWO: Another robust short wave will spread rain into all of Alabama on Thursday. Rain amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch look likely, and thermal profiles suggest all rain with no ice or sleet issues this time. Temperatures will most likely hold in the chilly 40s Thursday as the rain falls.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Friday and Saturday look like two fine early March days, with ample sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 60s. But, a cold front will bring rain back to the state before the weekend is over; latest GFS guidance hints the main window for rain will come from about midnight Saturday night through noon Sunday. No severe weather, and rain amounts of around 1/2 inch look likely. Drier air returns Sunday evening, and the first part of next week looks dry and mild.

LONG RANGE/VOODOO LAND: The good news is that the latest global model runs really don’t show any severe weather threats, or weather mischief through mid-March. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

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I will be seeing the kids with the Greene County Head Start program today, along with kids at Wylam K-8 school in Birmingham for Read Across America Day. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Some Snow Early Tomorrow Morning?

| 2:31 pm February 25, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR AT MID-AFTERNOON: A band of showers is on radar this afternoon from near West Blocton to Alabaster to Talladega and to Wedowee. The showers are moving to the east/southeast, and should be out of the area perhaps by the time you read this. The sky has actually cleared up in the Tennessee Valley, where the sun is shining in places like Florence, Decatur, and Huntsville. Temperatures are generally in the 50s.

RAIN, SNOW, COLD: Rain will become widespread across Alabama tonight ahead of a push of very cold air. And, we still believe there is a decent chance the rain will change to light sleet/snow early tomorrow morning before ending, generally along and north of I-20.

Soil temperatures are running around 50 degrees, so snow will just initially melt as it falls, but there might be enough for a bit in grassy areas before it all ends. The best chance of some accumulation will be over the far northeast corner of the state, especially across high terrain of Jackson and DeKalb Counties. Surface temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s, and at this point odds of any travel issues look small for the I-20 corridor (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston). Can’t rule out a few icy spots along and north of U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden), but major, widespread road issues are not expected for now.

The NWS in Birmingham has decided not to issue a “winter weather advisory” at this time.

Tomorrow will be cloudy, cold, raw, and damp with a high only around 40 degrees. Rain will continue during the day over the southern half of the state.

THURSDAY MORNING: The sky will clear tomorrow night, and we are projecting a low around 20 degrees early Thursday. Colder pockets across North Alabama will reach the mid to upper teens. It will be our coldest morning.

WARMER DAYS: A warming trend begins Thursday with a sunny sky; the high will be around 50 degrees. We reach the mid 50s Friday with sunshine statewide.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Still looking mostly rain-free at this point, although a touch of light rain can’t be totally ruled out Saturday with a mostly cloudy sky. The warming trend continues; we reach the mid 60s Saturday, followed by low to mid 70s Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds.

NEXT WEEK: A band of showers and storms will likely pass through Alabama Monday, but for now it doesn’t look like a severe weather situation. Colder air follows for the middle of the week. Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

STORM ALERT 2014 IN CALERA TONIGHT: Our annual severe weather awareness show continues this week… we will be at Calera High School tonight, and Oxford High School Thursday night. The shows begin at 6:30; doors open at 5:00. Come meet the ABC 33/40 Weather Team, get some cool free stuff, see some great weather stories, and learn how to keep your family safe during the tornado season. Keep in mind the spring tornado season begins in just a few days (March, April, May). Hope to see you there.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I really enjoyed the visit with the kids at Matthews Elementary in Northport this morning…. they will be on the Pepsi KIDCAM tomorrow at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. Hope to see many of you at Storm Alert 2014 tonight in Calera… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Colder Air Returns Today

| 5:52 am February 5, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: At daybreak, the rain in Alabama was confined to the southeast corner of the state, and that will be gone soon. Clouds linger statewide, and colder air is moving in.

THE DAY AHEAD: Today will be breezy and rather chilly with temperatures holding in the 40s all day. Clouds will linger much of the day, although the sun could peek out at times this afternoon. Tonight will be cold; look for a low down in the mid to upper 20s by daybreak tomorrow.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Tomorrow will be cold and dry; the high only in the 41-44 degree range as colder air coming off the northern snowpack settles into Alabama. Like today, clouds will be around much of the day with only limited amounts of sun, if we see any at all. Friday will be a little brighter with a mix of sun and clouds, and we rise back into the low 50s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Just a few days ago it looked like a rather high impact rain event was going to impact the state, but the models have trended dry over the past 48 hours, and we can really back off on any risk of rain. In fact, the QPF chart from the guys at WPC hint at no rain at all for the northern half of Alabama.

The ECMWF model (European) does hint at a little rain over Central and South Alabama Friday night as a wave of low pressure forms on the old front down in the Gulf, but that low moves northeast quickly and leaves the state dry for the weekend. The GFS model (American) is very similar, and we will trend toward a dry weekend forecast. Saturday will be mostly cloudy with a high in the 50s; I think we will see intervals of sunshine Sunday with a high in the upper 40s.

NEXT WEEK: The next wave in the active southern stream will bring rain back to Alabama by mid-week; the GFS hints some rain could move into Alabama as early as Tuesday afternoon, with rain more likely Tuesday night and Wednesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

LONG RANGE: Out in voodoo land it looks like the southern stream will remain very active, but there is no sign of any winter storm threat for Alabama over the next two weeks (for now).

STORM ALERT 2014: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama kicks off tomorrow evening; we will be at Gadsden City High School at 6:30 (doors open at 5:00). You will get an introduction to storm spotting, see the “good, the bad, and the ugly” concerning last week’s snow, learn how to stay safe this tornado season, and have a chance to win some cool stuff. If you have kids that love weather, bring them. They will love it. Hope to see you tomorrow evening in Gadsden.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Busy today ahead…. I have a weather program for the kids at the Children’s Hospital of Alabama, followed by a program at Vance Elementary School in Tuscaloosa County. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Back In The Frigid Air Tomorrow

| 3:21 pm January 20, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

FINE JANUARY DAY: As expected, this has been a wonderful mid-winter day for Alabama, with bright sunshine and a high in the low 60s.

Temperatures

But, as we have warned you, don’t get used to it…

ICY AIR RETURNS TO ALABAMA TOMORROW: Arctic air will return to Alabama tomorrow complete with a strong northwest winds of 15-30 mph. The NWS has issued a wind advisory for much of North/Central Alabama, and those winds will keep wind chill index values below freezing much of the day. The actual high will be around 40 degrees.

The high resolution NAM model suggests there could be a few snow flurries tomorrow morning, mostly north of Birmingham, but the air will be very dry and they won’t amount to anything.

VERY COLD MORNINGS: We drop down into the 14-19 degree range early Wednesday morning, and we project a hard freeze for four consecutive mornings (Wednesday through Saturday). The “warmest” morning will come early Thursday with a low between 20 and 25, but we go deep into the teens by early Friday and Saturday morning.

North winds will increase again Thursday with another surge of Arctic air, and we will really have a hard time getting above freeze both Thursday and Friday; highs both days will be in the low to mid 30s.

So, while this Arctic blast won’t be quite as cold as the one we saw earlier this month, it will be longer in duration. Plan now for very cold air to cover Alabama late tonight through midday Saturday.

OUR WEEKEND: After a very cold morning with lows well down in the teens, we warm into the upper 40s Saturday afternoon, and low 50s are possible Sunday. The air will remain dry, and the sky will be mostly sunny both days.

Another surge of colder air arrives early next week, but it won’t be as cold as what we see this week.

Out in the longer range, no real sign of any major precipitation event until around February 2; see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show at 8:30p CT tonight; watch it live on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

More Cold Air On The Way

| 3:26 pm January 16, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

THIS AFTERNOON: The sky is generally sunny across Alabama this afternoon with temperatures in the upper 40s in most places. Clouds will increase over the state during the next 6 hours ahead of the next “Alberta Clipper” system; it might squeeze out a sprinkle or two, but most places will stay rain-free thanks to the very dry air in place.

Temperatures

COLDER TOMORROW: Temperatures will be a little colder tomorrow; most communities will see a high in the mid 40s with a partly sunny sky. A west wind of 12-22 mph will make it feel colder. Can’t totally rule out a few early morning snow flurries over the northeast corner of the state, but they won’t amount to anything.

OUR WEEKEND: The low early Saturday morning will be in the 17-24 degree range (much like this morning), but with a strong January sun we should warm up to near 50 degrees by afternoon. Sunday will also be sunny with a high in the low 50s.

NEXT WEEK: Looks like Monday will be the warmest day out of the next seven with a high around 60 degrees, but yet another clipper will bring colder air back down in here Tuesday and Wednesday. I guess we can’t rule out a sprinkle somewhere Monday night, but the air looks pretty dry and most places will remain dry.

LONG RANGE: The 12Z GFS is advertising a very cold look for the eastern third of the nation in the January 26-29 time frame, evening hinting at some winter weather mischief around January 27. Of course, long time readers know there is very little skill in a specific forecast beyond seven days. This is just something to watch in coming days.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…