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Rain Returns Tomorrow Night
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COOL, DRY WEDNESDAY: Our weather here in Alabama will be tranquil today while much of the nation’s mid-section gears up for a big time winter storm. While clouds will increase today, the weather stays cool and dry with an afternoon high around the 50 degree mark; communities north of Birmingham won’t make it past the 40s.
TO THE WEST: Winter storm warnings are up for most of Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri ahead of a major system lifting out of the Southwest U.S. Winter storm warnings are also in effect for the mountains of the Southwest U.S. as well. And, in the warm sector of the system, severe storms could erupt over North Texas later today and tonight.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy and warmer. Winds will pick up out of the south, and could gust as high as 30 mph by tomorrow evening (much like Monday evening). To the west of Alabama, SPC maintains their standard “slight risk” of severe weather for much of Louisiana and the southern two-thirds of Mississippi, where severe thunderstorms could break out by afternoon. But, the storms should weaken as they move into Alabama tomorrow night due to a relatively stable airmass, and severe weather is not expected here.
The main window for rain will come from about 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 8:00 a.m. Friday. Rain amounts of around one inch are likely here.
During the day Friday, there should be a break in the rain for the North-Central part of Alabama, while the wet weather continues down south. Then, a wave of low pressure tracks along the boundary late Friday, which should push the rain back up to near I-59 Friday night. The Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama should be rain-free Friday night, while the rest of the state gets wet again.
There could be some flash flooding issues tomorrow night into Friday night over Southeast Alabama, where rain amounts over three inches are possible.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: It actually looks pretty good now. Models are in good agreement now that any rain Saturday will be well to the south of here; we project a mix of sun and clouds Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 60s both days. No significant chance of rain for the northern two-thirds of Alabama.
NEXT WEEK: Another dynamic weather system arrives on Monday with a good chance of rain and thunderstorms. The air over South Alabama will be quite unstable, and severe storms are certainly possible there, and maybe even over the northern counties if the instability can work its way northward. Something to watch in coming days. Then, drier air returns Tuesday and Wednesday.
THE LAND OF VOODOO: Models continue to advertise a colder pattern at the end of February and into early March. And, there is some decent consistency in the idea of a snow threat for North Alabama along the way; see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, details, and graphics.
GADSDEN TONIGHT: Need help programming a weather radio? We will be at Academy Sports in Gadsden this afternoon from 3:30 until 6:30 p.m. You can also buy a new model there as well if you need one. Remember, this is severe weather awareness week in Alabama, a time when families need to get ready for the spring tornado season.
STORM ALERT 2013 IN CLANTON TOMORROW NIGHT: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama continues through February. We will share lessons learned after the April 27, 2011 generational tornado event, along with other amazing weather stories. Learn how to keep your family safe during severe weather, and have a chance to win some cool prizes as well. Here are the remaining Storm Alert tour dates…
February 21 Clanton – Jeff State Performing Arts Center
February 26 Ohatchee – Ohatchee High School
February 28 Clay – Clay/Chalkville High School
All shows begin at 6:30… be sure and get there early to get a good seat.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
I will be going a weather program at Chelsea Park Elementary School today… and then I will be off to Gadsden for the Weather Radio programming event. Won’t be able to produce an afternoon video, but I will have forecast notes here by 4:00. Enjoy the day….
Rain Is Gone; Clouds Hang Tough
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
CLOUDS STICK AROUND: Yesterday’s rain was a “good rain” for Alabama. A slow, all day soaker with no severe weather, no thunder, no lightning, no flooding. The kind of rain you pay good money for in the summer. Most places had between 1.00″ and 1.50″. The rain ended late last night, but the clouds are still in place this morning thanks to a southwest flow aloft over the colder air. I don’t think we see any sunshine today, and temperatures won’t get out of the 40s. But, the day will be dry.
REST OF THE WEEK: A disturbance will bring rain to the immediate Gulf Coast late tonight and early tomorrow, but that stays well to the south of here, and we expect the sun to finally make an appearance tomorrow. The day will be cool with an early morning low just below freezing, followed by a high around 50 degrees. Friday will be very similar; a good supply of sunshine with a sub-freezing low followed by a high near 50.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: Not much change; the weather will feature seasonal temperatures and we don’t expect any rain. An upper trough will bring some clouds Saturday night and Sunday, but the low levels are very dry and I don’t see any reason to mention a chance of rain for now. Highs over the weekend will remain in the low to mid 50s. We will probably be a little above freezing early Sunday due to clouds, but we go back into the 20s at daybreak Monday.
NEXT WEEK: The dry, cool weather continues for the first half of the week, but the GFS hints at the next rain event coming toward the end of the week on Thursday or Friday (1/10-11).
VOODOO LAND: Global models sure look cold for the latter half of January. The kind of cold that covers the eastern half of the nation, and could easily drive us well down into the teens at some point. See the Weather Xtreme video for details. Snow lovers have a little hope around Jan 12-13 for light accumulation, but the cold is the big story.
BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP WEATHER: Monday of next week looks warm and humid in Miami with a mix of sun and clouds. We project a kickoff temperature in the low 70s for the Alabama/Notre Dame game, with the chance of a passing shower in the 20 to 30 percent range during the game. Very routine weather for South Florida in January.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
We are back on the regular schedule now, so look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
Strong Storms By Thursday Morning
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
ONE MORE DRY DAY: As advertised, today is a delightful December day across Alabama with ample sunshine and temperatures between 58 and 61 degrees at mid-afternoon. We drop into the 38-43 degree range early tomorrow, and then dry weather holds for one more day with a partly to mostly sunny sky through the day tomorrow. The day will be a bit warmer with a high in the upper 60s.
TO THE WEST: Storms will fire tomorrow over over Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi where SPC maintains their standard “slight risk” of severe weather. And, up in the cold air, heavy snow will develop from Colorado out into the Central Plains, where blizzard warnings are up for parts of Northwest Kansas.
STORMY THURSDAY MORNING: After a close review of the new 12Z model data, there really isn’t much change in our thinking for Thursday. A classic low CAPE, high shear cold season event.
A line of strong to severe storms should sweep through Thursday morning; the main window for the storms will come from about 3:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon. SPC has outlooked much of South Alabama with a “slight risk”, but I do think over the northern counties some of the storms in the line could produce strong, and maybe even damaging winds in spots. And, based on the high low level bulk shear values, a small spin-up tornado sure can’t be ruled out along the line, but the primary risk will come from straight line winds.
Rain amounts of 1/2 to 3/4 inch are likely; see the Weather Xtreme video for complete details along with all the maps and graphics.
COLD AIR BLOWS IN THURSDAY NIGHT: We expect a low in the 25-29 degree range here both Friday and Saturday morning; during the day Friday will have a hard time getting out of the 40s despite a sunny sky. The weekend will remain dry with highs in the 50s Saturday, and close to 60 Sunday.
CHRISTMAS STORMS? Both primary global models continue to show a very dynamic storm system impacting the nation next week, but the timing and details are still up for debate. The Euro (ECMWF) shows potential for strong storms here on Christmas Day, followed by the coldest air so far this season, with a high barely above freezing by December 27. But, the GFS is much slower. It suggests a cool, rainy day on Christmas, followed by warm front passage and a chance of severe weather Dec 26 into the early morning hours of Dec 27, followed by colder air, but not as cold as the Euro look.
We really need to get Thursday’s system out of here before we can really nail this down, but for those of you traveling next week be aware this system has potential to produce inclement weather over a wide part of the U.S. as it moves slowly east, including heavy snow in the cold sector of the storm. Again, take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics, maps, and details.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode we recorded last night.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
I had a great time today visiting with the 3rd graders at Elvin Hill Elementary School in Columbiana… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM Thursday at 5:00… tonight I will be live at Legacy BBQ on Highway 150 in Hoover as the annual Toys for Tots 26 hour marathon begins; we need 40,000 toys by tomorrow evening. We hope to see you there… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
Cool, Dry Pattern Continues
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
THIS MORNING: The northwest counties of Alabama are clear and cold with temperatures below freezing in some areas; Haleyville reports 28 degrees at 5:00. But, from Birmingham east and south, clouds remain in place and temperatures are warmer. The RPM model has suggested this will be the cloud pattern for most of the day; places like Tuscaloosa, Fayette, and Hamilton should see a good supply of sunshine, while clouds will hang tough over the eastern counties. For the I-65 corridor, we will forecast a mix of sun and clouds for the Birmingham metro. Where the sun is out today, temperatures should reach the low 60s, but where the clouds stick around you won’t get out of the 50s. The low levels remain dry and rain is not expected today.
TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: Very typical November weather for Alabama, with sunny cool days and clear chilly nights. Afternoon highs will be in the 62-65 degree range, with early morning lows between 36 and 43.
THANKSGIVING WEEK: The weather stays generally dry and cool. The 00Z GFS run keeps Alabama rain-free all week, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s, exactly where we should be for mid to late November. If the 00Z run is correct, our next chance of rain will come on Sunday November 25 thanks to a cold front. And, the good news is that for now we don’t see any severe weather setup through the end of the month.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: Looks great for the high school playoff games tomorrow night; the sky will be clear with temperatures falling from near 52 at kickoff into the 40s by the second quarter.
Alabama will host Western Carolina Saturday morning at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa (11:21 a.m. kickoff)… the sky will be mostly sunny, with temperatures rising from near 60 at kickoff to 64 at the final snap. Auburn hosts Alabama A&M at 1:00 Saturday afternoon… there will be a good supply of sunshine during the game; the kickoff temperature will be near 63 degrees, falling into the 50s by the fourth quarter as the sun goes low on the horizon.
Very similar weather for the UAB/Memphis game Saturday afternoon at Legion Field (1:00 kickoff); lots of sunshine with a kickoff temperature near 64 degrees, but falling into the 50s late in the game as darkness nears.
ON THIS DATE IN 1989: Around 4:30 pm on Wednesday, November 15, 1989, a tornado touched down near Madkin Mountain on Redstone Arsenal, southwest of Huntsville. The tornado moved northeast towards the heavily-populated Airport Road area, where it would destroy or damage 80 businesses, 3 churches, a dozen apartment buildings, and more than 1,000 cars. It moved on, climbing over Garth Mountain, demolishing Jones Valley Elementary School, and destroying 259 homes in the Jones Valley area. The tornado then moved out into eastern Madison County, where it damaged the equipment and maintenance headquarters of Commission District 2 as well as a state forestry office, destroyed 3 more homes, a volunteer fire department, several barns and sheds, and numerous electrical towers. All told, the tornado killed 21 people and injured 463. Rated an F4 on the Fujita Scale, it inflicted approximately $250 million in damage.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
I will be speaking at Berry Middle School this morning, and later to the Roteract Club of Birmingham at the Harbert Center. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…. enjoy the day!
Only A Few Sprinkles
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
CLOUDS; SOME SUN: While much of East Alabama is cloudy, the sun is shining on some West Alabama counties this afternoon. We note a thin band of radar echoes over North Alabama, but these raindrops, most likely, are not reaching the ground due to the very dry air near the surface. Temperatures remain below average, with mostly mid to upper 50s showing up at mid-afternoon.
The clouds are ahead of a strong short wave moving into Alabama. If we had a moist airmass, today would be wet and stormy, but due to the dry air most everybody stays dry.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: The 12Z models are more optimistic on clouds across Alabama, suggesting much of the state will be mostly fair late tonight and tomorrow as the wave axis moves to the east. Still, some clouds could linger over far East Alabama tomorrow, but for most places it looks like a partly sunny Thursday with a high around 60 degrees. Any rain with the short wave will be east of Alabama.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Looks very pleasant. Mostly sunny cool days, clear cold nights. Highs between 61 and 65, with lows between 36 and 43.
THANKSGIVING WEEK: The benign weather should continue through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, as the 12Z GFS run looks mostly dry next week. We might consider a small risk of a shower Tuesday night, but most places stay dry. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. A very good chance we make it all the way through November with no severe weather issues. Pretty unusual, but we will take it.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: Looks great for the high school playoff games Friday night; the sky will be clear with temperatures falling from near 52 at kickoff into the 40s by the second quarter.
Alabama will host Western Carolina Saturday morning at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa (11:21 a.m. kickoff)… the sky will be mostly sunny, with temperatures rising from near 60 at kickoff to 64 at the final snap. Auburn hosts Alabama A&M at 1:00 Saturday afternoon… there will be a good supply of sunshine during the game; the kickoff temperature will be near 63 degrees, falling into the 50s by the fourth quarter as the sun goes low on the horizon.
Very similar weather for the UAB/Memphis game Saturday afternoon at Legion Field (1:00 kickoff); lots of sunshine with a kickoff temperature near 64 degrees, but falling into the 50s late in the game as darkness nears.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
