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Rain Before The Weekend Is Over

| 3:32 pm September 26, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

PLEASANT AFTERNOON: We have a mix of sun and clouds across Alabama this afternoon with temperatures around 80 degrees; a few sprinkles are on radar from near Lake Martin over to Opelika and Lafayette, but most of the state is dry.

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OUR WEEKEND: The daytime hours tomorrow still look rain-free with some sun at times and a high in the 79-83 degrees range. Then, after midnight tomorrow night, a big mass of rain should move into Alabama thanks to a short wave moving out of Texas, which spins up a broad surface low near the Gulf Coast. Sunday looks like a wet day statewide; precipitable water values are expected to exceed two inches, meaning the rain could be heavy in spots. We project average rain amounts of one inch, but some communities, especially south and east of Birmingham, could see two inches or even more.

Thunderstorms are possible Sunday, but severe weather is not expected. We won’t get out of the 70s because of clouds and rain.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z model set hints the rain should end very early Monday, with the sky becoming partly sunny by Monday afternoon. Then, the weather will be warm and dry Tuesday through Thursday with a good supply of sunshine each day with highs up in the mid 80s.

A cold front will bring a chance of showers one week from today (Friday October 3), then cooler and drier air moves in for the following weekend (October 4-5). See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Delightful conditions for high school games tonight; the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling through the 70s during the games, reaching the upper 60s by the final whistle. There is no chance of rain.

Auburn hosts Louisiana Tech Saturday (3:00p CT kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium… the sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 83 degrees, dropping back into the 70s by the fourth quarter.

UAB will host Florida International Saturday at 2:30p CT at Legion Field in Birmingham… partly sunny with about 84 degrees at kickoff, and upper 70s by the final whistle.

TROPICS: All remains quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend across the Atlantic basin.

AT THE BEACH: Showers and storms will begin to form tomorrow on the coast from Panama City over to Gulf Shores, and Sunday looks wet with showers and storms likely. Then, much of next week will be dry with sunny days and fair nights. Highs will be in the 70s over the weekend due to clouds and showers, but then back in the 80s next week.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the kids from Ashland Elementary in Clay County on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News… my next Weather Xtreme video will be produced early Monday morning by 7:00 a.m… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Rain Returns To Alabama Sunday

| 6:19 am September 26, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

STILL DRY TODAY: Expect sunshine today through high clouds and a high in the 80-85 degree range across the great state of Alabama. The high resolution HRRR model does show a few very small, isolated showers this afternoon, but the low levels are very dry and we won’t mention any significant risk of rain.

WEEKEND WEATHER CHANGES: I still believe most of the state will be dry during the day tomorrow with a mix of sun and clouds and a high between 82 and 85 degrees. I guess the mention of a “slight chance” of an late afternoon shower is appropriate as moisture levels begin to rise.

A significant rain event is likely late tomorrow night through Sunday night for our state as an upper trough moves in from the west, a broad surface low forms near the Gulf Coast, and deep moisture moves up from the south. Models still suggest precipitable water values of 2 inches or more, which suggests the rain could be heavy at times….

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The main window for rain opens up around midnight tomorrow night, with occasional rain and thunderstorms continuing for 24-36 hours. Average rain amounts of 1 inch can be expected, but clearly some places could see over two inches, especially south and east of Birmingham. The lighter rain amounts should be over the northwest counties of the state.

Severe storms are not expected, and we won’t get out of the 70s Sunday with clouds and rain.

NEXT WEEK: The rain should begin to exit the state Monday, but we will maintain the risk of lingering showers, especially during the morning hours. Then, dry and warm weather is likely Tuesday through Thursday with highs up in the mid 80s.

A significant cold front arrives Friday (one week from today, October 3) with a chance of showers, and it looks like the coolest air so far this fall will move in for the following weekend (October 4-5). See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Delightful conditions for high school games tonight; the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling through the 70s during the games, reaching the upper 60s by the final whistle. There is no chance of rain.

Auburn hosts Louisiana Tech Saturday (3:00p CT kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium… the sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 83 degrees, dropping back into the 70s by the fourth quarter. Just a slight risk of a shower during the fourth quarter of the game.

UAB will host Florida International Saturday at 2:30p CT at Legion Field in Birmingham… partly sunny with about 84 degrees at kickoff, and upper 70s by the final whistle. Small risk of a shower by the fourth quarter.

TROPICS: All remains quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend across the Atlantic basin.

GULF COAST WEATHER: A good supply of sunshine today from Panama City to Gulf Shores, but showers and storms develop tomorrow, becoming widespread Sunday with little, if any sunshine. Then, for next week, just a few lingering showers Monday, followed by dry weather Tuesday through Thursday. Highs will be generally in the 80s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day…

Weather Changes This Weekend

| 2:19 pm September 25, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES: Very nice conditions across Alabama today with sunshine through high clouds and temperatures mostly in the low 80s. Humidity values low, and it feels very comfortable. The weather won’t change much tomorrow; partly to mostly sunny with a high between 81 and 84 degrees for most communities.

OUR WEEKEND: Some big changes, but the daytime hours Saturday look generally dry with a mix of sun and clouds. I do think we need to mention the chance of a shower late Saturday afternoon, however, with showers and storms becoming more likely Saturday night as we get some upper support moving in from the west.

Sunday looks like a very wet day for the state. A plume of very high precipitable water values is aimed at Alabama and Georgia…

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We will highlight rain and storms Sunday with potential for heavy rain at times; rain amounts of one to two inches look likely. A strong storm can’t be ruled out, but the chance of organized severe weather at this point looks low. We won’t get out of the 70s because of clouds and rain.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS keeps rain going over the state at least part of the day Monday, but drier air moves in for Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be warm during the mid-week period with highs in the mid 80s. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Delightful conditions for high school games tonight and tomorrow night; the sky will be clear with temperatures falling through the 70s during the games, reaching the upper 60s by the final whistle. There is no chance of rain.

Auburn hosts Louisiana Tech Saturday (3:00p CT kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium… the sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 83 degrees, dropping back into the 70s by the fourth quarter. We will need to mention a slight risk of a shower during the second half of the game.

UAB will host Florida International Saturday at 2:30p CT at Legion Field in Birmingham… partly sunny with about 84 degrees at kickoff, and upper 70s by the final whistle. Small risk of a shower by the fourth quarter.

TROPICS: NHC continues to identify a weak disturbance over the Central Atlantic, about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa, but conditions don’t favor any development.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Lots of sunshine on the coast today and tomorrow, but scattered showers are possible Saturday, followed by a relatively wet day Sunday with occasional showers and storms. Highs will hold in the 80s; sea water temperatures are near 80 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I enjoyed seeing all the kids this morning at Ashland Elementary School in Clay County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Rain Returns To Alabama Sunday

| 6:04 am September 25, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

ANOTHER FINE FALL MORNING: Many North/Central Alabama communities are in the 50s again this morning with a clear sky and light wind. Dry, continental air continues to cover our state, and today and tomorrow will be dry with mostly sunny warm afternoons.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday looks generally dry and warm with a high in the mid 80s. We do note the NAM model tries to squeeze out a shower or two late in the day, but for now we won’t mention any significant risk of rain. But, on Sunday our weather turns wet with occasional showers and thunderstorms likely thanks to a short wave approaching from the west, and deeper moisture moving up from the south. Looks like we can expect rain amounts of around one inch, with potential for heavier amounts in a few spots. Severe storms are not expected Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: The main support moves east of Alabama Monday, so while there could be a few lingering showers, the bigger rains will be over Georgia and the Carolinas. We trend toward dry weather Tuesday, although the 00Z GFS still hints at clouds over North Alabama, and maybe even a lingering shower near the Georgia border. Wednesday and Thursday look dry, with potential for another rain event at the end of the week on Friday (October 3). See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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FOOTBALL WEATHER: Delightful conditions for high school games tonight and tomorrow night; the sky will be clear with temperatures falling through the 70s during the games, reaching the upper 60s by the final whistle. There is no chance of rain.

Auburn hosts Louisiana Tech Saturday (3:00p CT kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium… the sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 83 degrees, dropping back into the 70s by the fourth quarter.

UAB will host Florida International Saturday at 2:30p CT at Legion Field in Birmingham… partly sunny with about 84 degrees at kickoff, and upper 70s by the final whistle.

TROPICS: NHC identifies a weak disturbance over the Central Atlantic, about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa, but conditions don’t favor any development.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Lots of sunshine on the coast today and tomorrow, but scattered showers are possible Saturday, followed by a relatively wet day Sunday with occasional showers and storms. Highs will hold in the 80s; the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 78 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program this morning at Ashland Elementary School in Clay County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Warm Afternoons, Pleasant Nights

| 1:29 pm September 24, 2014

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today; I am traveling to Atlanta where I will be recording two episodes of “Weather Geeks” that will air on the Weather Channel later this month and in early October**

SUNNY DAY: Nothing but severe clear across the great state of Alabama this afternoon; temperatures are headed toward the low 80s and the humidity levels will remain low. We don’t expect much change through Friday; mostly sunny warm days and fair pleasant nights with a slow warming trend. We should reach the mid 80s by Friday afternoon.

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THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday still looks warm and dry with a partly sunny sky and a high in the mid 80s. But, the 12Z GFS looks pretty wet for Sunday with a nice short wave moving in from the west, and moist air moving up from the south. We will forecast occasional showers and storms Sunday with a mostly cloudy sky and a high in the mid to upper 70s.

NEXT WEEK: Energy moves east of Alabama Monday, and while a few lingering showers are possible over the eastern counties, a decent part of the day should be dry. Then, dry weather is likely for mid-week Tuesday through Thursday with highs in the low 80s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Delightful conditions for high school games tomorrow and Friday nights; the sky will be clear with temperatures falling through the 70s during the games, reaching the upper 60s by the final whistle. There is no chance of rain.

Auburn hosts Louisiana Tech Saturday (3:00p CT kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium… the sky will be partly to mostly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 83 degrees, dropping back into the 70s by the fourth quarter.

UAB will host Florida International Saturday at 2:30p CT at Legion Field in Birmingham… partly sunny with about 84 degrees at kickoff, and upper 70s by the final whistle. No threat of rain.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is very quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected through the week.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Mostly sunny days and fair nights through Friday from Panama City over to Gulf Shores. Then, a shower is possible in a few spots Saturday, with showers and storms becoming more likely on the coast Sunday. Highs will be in the 80s with sea water temperatures mostly in the mid 80s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I enjoyed seeing the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th graders today at Blountsville Elementary… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM tomorrow at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. And, the next Weather Xtreme video will be here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Fine Early Fall Weather

| 6:07 am September 23, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

COOLEST SO FAR: Today is the first, full “official” day of fall, and it sure feels like it this morning. Temperatures just before daybreak…

Millport (Lamar County) 42
Cullman 46
Black Creek (just northeast of Gadsden) 47
Cottondale 48
Russellville 48
Concord 51
Haleyville 51
Tuscaloosa 54
Huffman 55
Anniston 55

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DRY DAYS: This cool, dry, continental air means rain-free weather for Alabama through Friday, with sunny pleasant days and fair cool nights. Just a slow day to day warming trend. Makes for a very easy forecast.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will be warm and dry with a partly sunny sky and a high in the mid 80s. Moisture levels rise Sunday, and a few scattered showers could break out Sunday afternoon. Nothing widespread, but a few neighborhoods could see a decent shower, or maybe even a thunderstorm.

NEXT WEEK: We will maintain the chance of scattered showers and storms Monday, but the weather looks relatively rain-free for the middle part of the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: All is quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected across the Atlantic basin through the week.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Sunny days and fair nights from Panama City to Gulf Shores through Friday with highs in the 80s; a small risk of a shower Saturday, then a few widely scattered showers or storms are possible Sunday. Still a decent amount of sun for the weekend. Sea water temperatures are mostly in the mid 80s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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I will be doing a weather program this morning at Southview Middle School in Tuscaloosa… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

A Mostly Calm Weather Pattern

| 3:34 pm September 17, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: As expected, there are no showers anywhere in Alabama at mid-afternoon; the sky is partly to mostly sunny, with temperatures generally in the 80s. Muscle Shoals and Haleyville are at 78 degrees at 2:00 p.m. Dew points are low, and the air is dry. Many North Alabama communities will visit the upper 50s early tomorrow morning.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: While it looks like generally calm and dry weather continues, there are a couple of potential issues. One wave coming down in the northwest flow aloft, now producing showers and storms over Missouri and northern Arkansas, and the high resolution NAM brings down a batch of showers into North Alabama very early tomorrow morning, then moving southward through the state during the day. But, that model is an outlier, and with a very dry airmass in place I don’t think we see anything significant. I might insert a slight risk of a shower for North Alabama tomorrow due to this feature, but for now it doesn’t look like a big weather maker.

Then, on Friday, a cold air damming pattern (the wedge) sets up over Georgia and the Carolinas, and it looks like low clouds will push into far East Alabama Friday morning. Some communities near the Georgia border might even see a sprinkle or two. The high along and east of U.S. 431 will be in the 70s, but for the rest of the state Friday should be a partly sunny day with a high in the mid 80s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Looks nice with ample sunshine Saturday and Sunday with highs holding in the 80s. A few showers could arrive Sunday night ahead of cold front. That front will bring the risk of widely scattered showers Monday, but it looks like moisture will be very limited, and it won’t be a major rain event. Cooler and drier air follows the front for the middle of next week. See the Weather Xtreme video for the latest maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For tomorrow night’s Auburn/Kansas State football game in Manhattan, Kansas (6:30p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly fair, the temperature will fall from around 77 degrees at kickoff, into the low 70s by the final whistle.

Clear weather for the high school football games in Alabama tomorrow and Friday night; temperatures will be in the upper 70s at kickoff, falling into the low 70s by the fourth quarter. No threat of rain or lightning delays this week.

Alabama will host Florida at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa Saturday afternoon (2:30p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 85 degrees, falling into the upper 70s by the final whistle.

TROPICS: Hurricane Edouard is packing sustained winds of 90 mph in the Atlantic; it is moving northeast and will remain far from land. A new tropical wave is moving off the coast of Africa, but any development will be slow.

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GULF COAST WEATHER: Mostly sunny days and fair nights through Sunday from Panama City over to Gulf Shores with only isolated showers over storms; highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with sea water temperatures mostly in the mid 80s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I enjoyed seeing everyone at ALAGASCO today in Gadsden… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Dry Pattern Setting Up For Alabama

| 6:27 am September 17, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

NO RAIN FOR A WHILE: A drier airmass pushed into Alabama last night, and it looks like a pretty benign weather pattern ahead for the state through the weekend. Mostly sunny warm days, lower humidity, and clear cool nights. Afternoon highs will be in the 80s; our coolest morning will come early tomorrow when most communities will enjoy a low between 58 and 63 degrees.

The only potential issue comes Friday with a cold air damming pattern sets up east of the state; we will have to keep an eye on clouds and cooler temperatures over Georgia and the Carolinas; that could creep into extreme East Alabama, but for now we will make the assumption the wedge won’t impact our state.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND: A cold front will approach, and we will mention the risk of a few widely scattered showers Sunday night as the weekend wraps up, but moisture looks very limited and it sure won’t be a big rain event. We will hang on to the risk of isolated showers Monday, and then a cooler, drier airmass arrives Monday night, setting up some very pleasant fall weather for the middle of next week with highs around 80 and lows in the 50s. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

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DRY TIME OF THE YEAR: September-October is our driest two month period of the year in Alabama based on climatological averages; the average rain for September is 4.05″, with an average of just 3.23″ in October (for Birmingham). So long dry periods like this are fairly common this time of the year.

We should mention Birmingham’s rain total for the year is 34.50″, 4.66″ below average.

THURSDAY NIGHT SPECIAL: Looks like we can remove any threat of rain from tomorrow night’s Auburn/Kansas State football game in Manhattan, Kansas (6:30p CT kickoff). The sky will be mostly fair, the temperature will fall from around 77 degrees at kickoff, into the low 70s by the final whistle.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL: Clear weather for the high school football games in Alabama Thursday and Friday night; temperatures will be in the upper 70s at kickoff, falling into the low 70s by the fourth quarter. No threat of rain or lightning delays this week.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL THIS WEEKEND: Alabama will host Florida at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa Saturday afternoon (2:30p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 85 degrees, falling into the upper 70s by the final whistle.

TROPICS: Hurricane Edouard is now weakening as it recurves into the open Atlantic… far from land. Top winds are down to 90 mph. Tropical Storm Odile in the northern Gulf of California has the potential to bring flooding rain to Arizona and New Mexico through tomorrow. And, Tropical Storm Polo is in the East Pacific off the Mexican coast, but this one looks like it will miss Cabo San Lucas to the west this weekend thankfully.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Mostly sunny days and fair nights on the coast from Panama City to Gulf Shores through the weekend with only isolated showers Saturday and Sunday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, and the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 85 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be doing a severe weather safety program this morning at ALAGASCO in Gadsden… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!