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Severe Clear

| 2:35 pm April 9, 2014

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today; we are in Oxford programming NOAA Weather Radio receivers at the Publix; come see us if you need help… we will be here until 6:30 p.m.**

CHILLY NIGHT: Most communities will wind up in the low 40s early tomorrow with a clear sky and light wind, but keep in mind some of the traditionally colder spots will see a low in the mid to upper 30s with a touch of light frost possible. Nothing widespread or really damaging.

SPECTACULAR SPRING WEATHER: Doesn’t get any better; we expect sunny mild days and clear cool nights through Sunday. Highs in the mid 70s tomorrow, and upper 70s Friday and over the weekend. Some places could touch 80 degrees Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

STORMS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS continue the idea of a band of showers and storms moving into Alabama Monday…

gfs_precip_thick_east_22

This will be a dynamic system, and we will monitor it in coming days for potential for heavy rain and severe thunderstorms. Colder and drier air will follow the rain Tuesday and Wednesday.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tomorrow night at 8:30 CT.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Red Flag Warning for Much of Alabama Today

| 10:20 am February 28, 2014

Many of the counties in Central and South Alabama are under a Red Flag Warning today. Red Flag Warning criteria is different for each weather office, but all counties in the NWS Birmingham CWA, most of the Alabama counties covered by NWS Mobile, as well all Alabama counties covered by NWS Tallahassee have met the criteria for a warning today.

2-28-2014 9-59-52 AM

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW…OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS AND OR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED…ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE FIRE CONDITIONS…PLEASE
CONTACT THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION AT
WWW.FORESTRY.ALABAMA.GOV.

* LOCATIONS: MARION…LAMAR…FAYETTE…WINSTON…WALKER…BLOUNT…ETOWAH…CALHOUN…
CHEROKEE…CLEBURNE…PICKENS…TUSCALOOSA…JEFFERSON…SHELBY…ST. CLAIR…
TALLADEGA…CLAY…RANDOLPH…SUMTER…GREENE…HALE…PERRY…BIBB…CHILTON…
COOSA…TALLAPOOSA…CHAMBERS…MARENGO…DALLAS…AUTAUGA…LOWNDES…ELMORE…
MONTGOMERY…MACON…BULLOCK…LEE…RUSSELL…PIKE…BARBOUR…CHOCTAW…CLARKE…
WILCOX…MONROE…CONECUH…BUTLER…CRENSHAW…ESCAMBIA…COVINGTON…COFFEE…DALE…
GENEVA…HENRY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES.

Showers By Friday; Storms This Weekend

| 3:32 pm December 17, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

SEVERE CLEAR: Nothing but blue sky and sunshine across Alabama this afternoon; temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 60s. Colder air will slip in here tonight, and we expect another freeze early tomorrow with a low between 28 and 32 degrees for most communities.

The high tomorrow will drop back into the mid 50s, but the sky will stay sunny thanks to a very dry airmass. Another sunny day is likely Thursday, with a high in the low 60s.

MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY: We will introduce the chance of scattered showers Friday afternoon as moisture levels rise. The high Friday afternoon will be in the low to mid 60s, and the sky will be generally cloudy during the day.

TO THE WEST: A deep upper low will be over the far northern Gulf of California Friday, and how that behaves after it lifts out will determine the weather for much of the central and eastern U.S.

WEEKEND STORMS: A surface low Saturday will form over Southwest Arkansas, with a warm front extending to the east. We will forecast a good chance of showers and storms Saturday, but it won’t rain all day, and the sun might break through a time or two. The warm front should be north of here by afternoon, and the GFS is printing a high of 75 degrees Saturday. If this verifies, it will be a new record high for December 21, beating the old record of 73 set in 1923.

The new model set this morning still shows a considerable difference between the American global model (the GFS), which is faster and more aggressive with severe weather parameters, and the European model (the ECMWF) which is slower with a less than impressive severe weather setup.

The GFS continues to show the potential for severe weather across Alabama Saturday night into early Sunday morning, with a strong low level jet in excess of 60 mph (winds at 5,000 feet), surface dew points into the mid to upper 60s, and low bulk shear of 40 knots. The ECMWF shows a weaker line of storms Sunday evening as the main upper support lifts away from Alabama.

We will pretty much take the compromise for now, and forecast the main window for strong to severe storms from midnight Saturday night through early Sunday afternoon. We will be much more specific on the magnitude of the threat and the modes of severe weather to expect early tomorrow morning. For now there is no formal severe weather risk defined by the Storm Prediction Center due to the model conflicts.

Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

CHRISTMAS WEEK: Monday will be dry, but breezy and colder with a high in the 49-53 degree range. Tuesday and Christmas Day will be dry and cool; highs in the low 50s, lows around freezing. Just about what you expect in late December in Alabama based on seasonal averages.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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I will be live at Southern Legacy BBQ on Highway 150 in Hoover on ABC 33/40 News at 4, 5, 6, and 10:00 as we kick off our annual 26 hour Toys for Tots drive to end the campaign. Please bring a new unwrapped toy by sometime tonight or tomorrow; we still need about 25,000 toys to meet the demand. There are so many families in need across Alabama. The U.S. Marines will deliver the toys next week.

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Dry Through Thursday; Stormy Weekend

| 6:33 am December 17, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK: Look for sunny pleasant days and clear cold nights through Thursday. We will see a high near 60 today, but tomorrow will be about 5 degrees cooler thanks to a clipper type system passing to the north. Then, on Thursday afternoon, we should reach the low 60s.

Moisture levels rise Friday, and a few scattered showers could break out Friday afternoon across the northern half of Alabama. The high Friday will be in the mid 60s as our gradual warming trend continues.

EYES TO THE WEST: A deep upper low will be over the northern Gulf of California Friday, and how that lifts out will pretty much determine the weekend weather for much of the central and eastern U.S.

STORMY WEEKEND: A surface low is expected to form over Central Texas Friday… then moving through Arkansas and Kentucky over the weekend, supported by the upper trough lifting out of the Southwest U.S., and will bring the risk of strong to severe storms across the Deep South.

Significant differences continues between the American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) global models, and due to the uncertainty the guys at the Storm Prediction Center have not issued any formal severe weather risk for now in their day 4-8 convective outlook, and that is a good call. Just too early.

Saturday will be warm and breezy, with a high between 70 and 75 degrees. A chance we establish a new record high for December 21; the current record is 73 degrees set in 1923. Scattered showers and storms are possible, but the main window for organized strong to severe storms will come Saturday night, or Sunday.

GFS: This model offers a more aggressive severe weather look for Alabama, a low level jet (around 5,000 feet) of over 60 knots, surface dew points in the mid to upper 60s, and low level bulk shear (surface to 925 mb) of 40 knots. If this happens to be the correct solution, the main window for severe thunderstorms in our state will come from about midnight Saturday night through 12:00 noon Sunday, and all modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes.

ECMWF: The Euro is slower, and shows a stronger ridge over the South Atlantic coast. This shunts the better severe weather parameters just north and west of Alabama, and shows a squall line moving through here Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. There would be some potential for gusty straight line winds with the squall line, but the severe weather threat for Alabama could be somewhat marginal.

BOTTOM LINE: It is simply too early to make the call on the magnitude of the weekend severe weather threat, or lay out the timing and modes of severe weather to expect. We should have better clarity early tomorrow morning on this discussion.

But, if you are traveling this weekend, just be aware of the potential for strong to severe storms across the southern U.S. Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

CHRISTMAS WEEK: Monday will be dry, but breezy and colder with a high around 50 degrees. Cool and dry weather is the story for Tuesday and Christmas Day, with highs in the 50s, and lows in the 30s, right at seasonal averages for late December in Alabama.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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TOYS FOR TOTS: Our annual 26 hour marathon kicks off this afternoon at 4:00… I will be live from Legacy BBQ on Highway 150 in Hoover on ABC 33/40 at 4, 5, 6, and 10… please consider bringing a new, unwrapped toy for families that are in need. The U.S. Marines will distribute the toys next week.

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…. enjoy the day…

Dry Week Ahead; Turning Warmer

| 6:15 am December 16, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

SEVERE CLEAR: Following a Sunday with stubborn clouds and a high in the 30s over North Alabama, today will be brighter and warmer. With sunshine in full supply, we project a high in the mid 50s this afternoon.

NICE WARM-UP THIS WEEK: We will enjoy a day to day warming trend this week, and by Friday our high will be very close to 70 degrees.

Screen_Shot_2013-12-16_at_5_06_38_AM-30

There is no risk of rain through Thursday with sunny days and fair nights. Moisture will increase on Friday, however, and a few showers could break out in the warm air advection pattern. Nothing really organized, most likely.

STORMY WEEKEND: This is the fall tornado season in Alabama, so having the risk of strong to severe storms in November or December is not unusual, and is to be expected. And, unfortunately it looks like there will be some risk of severe weather in Alabama before the weekend is over, but there is no way of resolving details now with inconsistent model output.

We will warm into the low to mid 70s Saturday and Sunday, and showers are possible Saturday into Saturday night in the moist air. Rain Saturday will not be continuous, and you might even see a peek or two of sunshine.

The window for strong storms will come Sunday or Sunday night. The 06Z GFS shows a sub-1000 mb surface low near Little Rock at midday Sunday, with Alabama in the warm sector as we rise into the mid 70s. A strong low level jet (over 60 knots at 850 mb) and very significant low level bulk shear (1000-925 mb bulk shear of over 40 knots) could suggest a significant severe weather threat.

However, the ECMWF gives a completely different look with the primary surface low Sunday near Buffalo, NY with only marginal severe weather parameters here.

BOTTOM LINE: It is too early to know the magnitude of the severe weather threat in Alabama late this weekend, if there is one at all. The guys at the Storm Prediction Center are the best at the world in identifying severe weather potential, and they do not have any risk defined at this point due to the uncertainty. You might hear of some fear mongering from non meteorologists on blogs or message boards, but let that go in one ear and out the other. We will have better clarity at mid-week. Stay tuned.

See the Weather Xtreme video for a more details on the weekend weather situation with maps and graphics.

CHRISTMAS WEEK: We turn colder Monday of next week in the wake of the storms with a high in the 45-50 degree range with a chilly north wind. The weather looks cool and dry for Tuesday and Christmas Day, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s, right at seasonal averages for late December in Alabama. If you are looking for a White Christmas, you better drive far to the north of here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Frigid Air Arrives This Weekend

| 3:47 pm November 19, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS: Temperatures are generally in the 50s across North/Central Alabama this afternoon; the actual range is from 49 at Haleyville to 60 at Tuscaloosa. North winds are rather gusty, averaging 10-18 mph.

Tonight will be mostly fair and chilly; most communities will reach the upper 30s by daybreak tomorrow.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: These two days will remain dry with a slow warm-up; tomorrow’s high will be in the low 60s, followed by mid 60s Wednesday. Expect a mix of sun and clouds both days.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: UAB has a game Thursday night at Legion Field against the Rice Owls, the game kicks off at 6:30 CT. The sky will be mostly cloudy, but we don’t expect any significant rain. Temperatures will be comfortable with a kickoff temperature near 58 degrees, falling into the mid 50s during the second half.

FRIDAY: Clouds thicken Friday ahead of a strong cold front. The latest GFS run brings showers into Northwest Alabama Friday afternoon, and rain looks like a good possibility over the northern half of the state Friday night, meaning you will need to take the rain gear if you are headed to a high school football playoff game. The high Friday afternoon will be in the mid 60s; enjoy it because it will be a while before we get into the 60s again.

ARCTIC INVASION FOR THE WEEKEND: The rain should end over much of North/Central Alabama by midday Saturday, then the weather turns windy and sharply colder. I get the idea we will fall into the 40s Saturday afternoon with north winds of 15-25 mph. Clouds move out Saturday night as the cold air keeps moving in.

We will begin Sunday with a low down in the low to mid 20s; Sunday will be sunny but cold with a high only in the low to mid 40s. Some parts of the Tennessee Valley up in extreme North Alabama won’t get out of the 30s. These temperatures are about 20 degrees below average for the middle of November in Alabama.

THANKSGIVING WEEK: Monday morning will be very cold, with a low between 19 and 24 degrees for most places. Coldest valleys could see mid teens. Then, we warm to near 50 Monday, and mid 50s on Tuesday.

Clouds increase Tuesday, and a wave in the northern Gulf of Mexico promises to bring rain to Alabama Tuesday night into the day Wednesday. The surface low will be south of us, so no severe weather, just old fashioned rain.

The latest GFS run hints the rain moves out Wednesday night, leaving a dry Thanksgiving Day for Alabama with a high in the 50s. Dry weather should continue into “Black Friday”, and “Iron Bowl Saturday”… see the Weather Xtreme video for a day by day breakdown of Thanksgiving week with all the maps and graphics.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Melissa is in the middle of the Atlantic, and will move northeast in coming days. No threat to land. This should be the last named storm of the 2013 Atlantic tropical season.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night with Janice Dean of Fox News Channel.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Showers Return Tomorrow; Cooler Thursday

| 6:19 am October 15, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WEATHER CHANGES AHEAD: Looks like we will be able to squeeze out one more dry day with a mix of sun and clouds; the high this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 70s for most communities, not too far from average values for October 15 (our average high today is 75).

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: The sky over Alabama will be cloudy tomorrow, and showers will move into the state from the west. Seems like the best chance of rain will come tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night; no severe weather, and probably no thunder. Just periods of mostly light rain. The weather will stay mild tomorrow with a high in the 70s.

Thursday will feature clouds and much cooler air; I get the idea we will hover in the low to mid 60s all day, and we will need to mention a chance of light rain at times in the cooler air.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Friday still looks like a great day, with ample sunshine and a high in the low 70s. A good chance we begin the day in the 40s, but the models aren’t quiet as cold as recent runs as they now want to hold off the coldest air until Sunday and Monday. And, unfortunately the GFS is now coming around to the ECMWF solution, meaning we will have to make some forecast adjustments for the weekend.

RAIN POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY: We will now introduce a chance of rain as the weekend begins with model models on board for a wave coming our way out of Texas with a decent amount of moisture. Saturday now looks like a cloudy day, with periods of rain possible. Impossible to give you specific start/stop times for the rain now, but I would say initially the main window for wet weather will come from 6:00 a.m. until 9:00 p.m. Saturday; we will be able to narrow that down tomorrow and Thursday. Rain amounts of 1/2 inch or less are expected, and I doubt if we hear much thunder. Temperatures will hold in the 60s all day Saturday with clouds and occasional rain.

Sunday will be dry, but breezy and cool. The sky should be generally sunny with a high in the upper 60s with a cool north wind of 10-15 mph. Then, early Monday morning the GFS is printing a low of 44 degrees for Birmingham. Considering that model has had a warm bias, I fully expect a number of communities over North Alabama to reach the 30s for the first time this season early Monday.

We should be rain-free Monday and Tuesday with a good supply of sunshine both days.

RACE WEEKEND AT TALLADEGA: Some scattered light rain is possible at the Superspeedway Thursday with a cloudy sky, but the weather looks great Friday, with a good supply of sunshine and a high near 71 degrees. Unfortunately, as discussed above, we will now have to introduce a chance of rain at times Saturday with a high near 68 degrees. It won’t rain all day, but I figure there will be about 2 to 3 hours of rain at the track, meaning rain delays are very possible Saturday. But, the good news is that Sunday still looks fine with a mostly sunny sky. The high Sunday afternoon will be around 67 with a chilly north breeze of 10-15 mph during the Camping World RV Sales 500. Temperatures should be in the mid to upper 40s at daybreak Sunday as the day begins.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is very quiet; and two dissipating systems are in the East Pacific. The biggest story globally is Typhoon Wipha, which will pass just east of Tokyo today as a category one storm. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down the show notes on this week’s new episode we recorded last night.

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I will be doing a weather program this morning for the pre-K kids at God’s House Kindergarten in Shelby County, and then I will be speaking at Our Lady of the Valley Catholic Church at midday. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Showers By Wednesday, Then Much Cooler

| 3:45 pm October 14, 2013

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

THIS AFTERNOON: We have a mix of sun and clouds across Alabama this afternoon, and nothing showing up on radar. Temperatures are generally in the 77 to 81 degree range. Clouds should thicken tonight, but the weather stays dry.

TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: Tomorrow looks like a generally cloudy day, with some chance of filtered sunshine at times. Some of the high moisture over Alabama tomorrow will actually originate from Tropical Storm Octave, near the Baja California peninsula. Low levels will remain dry, and for now we don’t expect any rain during the day tomorrow.

We will forecast occasional showers on Wednesday as a cold front begins to enter Alabama from the northwest. Some rain will remain possible Wednesday night, and the GFS and NAM are now hinting that we might even have a little wet weather into the day Thursday with clouds hanging tough. Rain won’t be too heavy, with amounts well under one-half inch in most places.

Our weather begins to turn much cooler Thursday; looks like we hover in the low to mid 60s all day with clouds and a little light rain at times. The sky will clear Thursday night, and we are projecting a low between 40 and 45 degrees by daybreak Friday, easily the coolest air we have seen so far this season. The sky Friday should be generally sunny, but the high will be only around 70 degrees.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Still considerable model differences on Saturday; the ECMWF wants to bring a short wave into the state with rain possible, but the GFS is completely dry. The GFS has performed better in the day 3-7 time frame this season, so we will buy the more optimistic GFS solution for now and not mention any rain on Saturday; the day should be partly to mostly sunny with a high in the low 70s. Both models shows dry weather for Alabama Sunday with a high between 71 and 75 along with a good supply of sunshine. Early morning lows will remain mostly in the upper 40s over the weekend.

RACING AT TALLADEGA: Looks like a little scattered light rain is possible at the Talladega Superspeedway Thursday with a cloudy sky, but the weather looks fine Friday through Sunday, with mostly sunny pleasant days and clear chilly nights. The high Friday will be around 70, with low 70s Saturday, and mid 70s possible Sunday. Early morning lows will be down in the 40s. As discussed above, the only potential forecast change would be on Saturday, but for now we will leave any rain out of the forecast.

NEXT WEEK: Looks like another chance of rain around Tuesday of next week, followed by another shot of colder air; see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains pretty quiet, but over in the East Pacific we have tropical storms Octave and Priscilla; Octave will dissipate near the coast of Baja California in coming days, but the high level moisture is streaming from the system up into parts of Texas and Oklahoma this afternoon. Priscilla will move northwest and dissipate over the open Pacific.

And, in the West Pacific, Typhoon Wipha will brush the coast of Japan in about 24 hours as a category one storm, while Typhoon Nari is moving into Vietnam as a weakening system. See all of the maps and graphics on the Weather Xtreme video.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce tonight’s show at 8:30p CT… watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

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I had a great time today visiting the 2nd graders at Edgewood Elementary in Homewood… be sure and watch for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…