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Dry Today; Cooler Tomorrow

| 6:20 am April 7, 2016

FOGGY START: A dense fog advisory is in effect for much of Central Alabama early this morning, but once that fog burns off we expect a nice day with ample sunshine and a high in the 69-72 degree range this afternoon.

A cold front will pass through tonight; the high resolution NAM tries to develop a few light showers as it passes through. We will forecast an increase in clouds tonight along with some risk of isolated showers, but moisture will be very limited, and rain amounts, if any, will be very light.

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TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Expect dry weather, but with a cooling trend. Many North Alabama communities won’t get out of the 50s Saturday, and early mornings will be cold this weekend. Many places will reach the 30s both Saturday and Sunday morning… and growers and gardeners will need to monitor temperatures closely since frost is very possible, especially Sunday when the wind will be near calm. Also, colder valleys and protected areas across Northeast Alabama will have a good chance of reaching the freezing mark at daybreak Sunday.

A warming trend begins Sunday afternoon with a high between 67 and 70 degrees.

NEXT WEEK: The weather stays dry Monday with a partly sunny sky and a high in the low to mid 70s. Then, we will mention a chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday as the next storm system approaches; for now the threat of severe storms looks low. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days and fair nights is the story on the Gulf Coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through Monday; highs in the 70s, except for upper 60son the immediate coast. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

STORM SPOTTER TRAINING: Storm Spotter Xtreme is coming up this Saturday, April 9 at the BJCC from 9am to 2pm. This will feature both the basic and advanced SKYWARN classes, along with a session from Kevin Laws of the Birmingham NWS office. And, if you come, you get free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show, going on at the BJCC that same day. There is no cost and no need to register. Just show up with a curious mind. Kids 10 and older will also enjoy this if they love weather and want to learn more. Please help us make the severe weather warning process better!

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I will be speaking to a group in Tuscaloosa at lunch today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

One More Delightful Day

| 3:30 pm March 28, 2016

SPECTACULAR SPRING AFTERNOON: Hard to find a cloud in the sky this afternoon; temperatures are mostly in the 60s across North/Central Alabama. Tonight will be clear and cool with a low in the 40-43 degree range for most; some colder spots could see upper 30s early tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow will be another fine spring day with ample sunshine and a warmer afternoon; the high will be at or just over 70 degrees for most.

Clouds will increase Wednesday, and showers could reach West Alabama by afternoon as another storm system approaches from the west.

STRONG STORM/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL: Rain and storms are likely Wednesday night and Thursday as as cold moving cold front approaches from the west, trailing from a deep upper low around the Great Lakes. Rain becomes widespread across the state Wednesday night, and for now the severe weather potential then looks rather low. But, on Thursday, we could see a break from the rain during the morning hours, and the air becomes unstable by afternoon with surface based CAPE values rising to near 2,000 j/kg over Northwest Alabama.

The main threat of strong/severe storms will come Thursday afternoon, but it seems like parameters are a little out of phase with the highest instability to the west, and the better dynamics to the northeast. But, this could easily change as we get closer to the event. SPC maintains a risk of severe storms Thursday (Day 4) over the southern two-thirds of the state, generally along and south of I-20. This will probably be adjusted tomorrow.

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FRIDAY: We will forecast clearing, breezy, and cooler weather for the state Friday; some North Alabama communities will hold in the 50s all day.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Dry air means sunshine in full supply both days, but nights will be cold. The low early Saturday will be in the 38-44 degree range, but Sunday will be a bit colder, with mid to upper 30s in many places. And, with a clear sky and light wind, some scattered light frost is certainly possible. Growers will need to monitor temperatures both mornings.

The high Saturday will be in the mid 60s, followed by upper 60s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Dry weather continues for the first half of next week with a gradual warming trend… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Tomorrow will be mostly sunny on the coast from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach, but clouds increase Wednesday, and occasional showers and storms are likely Wednesday night through Friday. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it here.

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I enjoyed seeing a good crowd at the Pinson Public Library this morning… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Improving Weather Today

| 6:26 am March 28, 2016

THIS MORNING: A cold front is passing through Central Alabama early this morning in dry fashion; behind the front some places across North Alabama are in the 50s, but we have 60s south and east of the front. Early morning clouds will give way to a sunny sky today, and the high will be in the mid 60s for most communities.

Tomorrow will be delightful, with ample sunshine and a high around 70 degrees. And, a decent part of the day Wednesday should be dry, although clouds will gradually increase, and we reach the low to mid 70s Wednesday afternoon.

STRONG STORMS/HEAVY RAIN LATER THIS WEEK: A deep surface low will move through the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front in our direction… that will set the stage for active weather Wednesday night and Thursday.

SPC has the southern two-thirds of the state in a severe weather risk on Thursday (Day 4)…

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Quite frankly at this stage being really specific with the severe weather threat is a challenge; widespread rain, with some thunderstorms, is likely Wednesday night into the day Thursday, and this could severely limit instability values and mitigating the severe weather risk. But, if breaks in the rain develop and instability values are higher than forecast, we could very well see a severe weather issue. And, projected shear values suggest a tornado or two will certainly be possible.

For now it looks like the prime risk of severe storms, if the conditions allow, will come from late morning through the afternoon Thursday. We will have a much better handle on this risk by tonight and tomorrow.

FLOODING? No doubt this system will bring lots of rain to our state; amounts of 2-3 inches look likely Wednesday night and Thursday, and some flash flooding issues could very well develop.

FRIDAY: Clearing, breezy, and colder is the forecast; many North Alabama communities won’t get out of the 50s with a cool north breeze.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We expect a sunny sky Saturday and Sunday, but mornings will be cold for early April. Lows in the upper 30s are possible at daybreak Saturday, but Sunday morning could be colder. With a clear sky and light wind, some frost is certainly possible Sunday morning, with potential for a light freeze for the colder valleys and protected areas.

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The high Saturday will be in the low 60s, followed by upper 60s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Dry weather continues for the first half of the week with warmer afternoons… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny weather on the Gulf Coast today and tomorrow, but rain and storms return Wednesday night and Thursday. Then, Friday and the upcoming weekend look dry with a good supply of sunshine each day. Highs mostly in the 70s, with 60s on the immediate coast due to the cool ocean water (the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 66 degrees). See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

STORM SPOTTER TRAINING: Storm Spotter Xtreme is coming up Saturday, April 9 at the BJCC from 9am to 2pm. This will feature both the basic and advanced SKYWARN classes, along with a session from Kevin Laws of the Birmingham NWS office. And, if you come, you get free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show, going on at the BJCC that same day. There is no cost and no need to register. Just show up with a curious mind. Kids 10 and older will also enjoy this if they love weather and want to learn more. Please help us make the severe weather warning process better!

FS STORM SPOTTER XTREME

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be doing a program this morning at the Pinson Public Library… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Strong Storms Possible Sunday Night

| 3:33 pm March 25, 2016

GOOD WEATHER ON GOOD FRIDAY: Hard to find a decent cloud in the Alabama sky this afternoon; temperatures are mostly in the 60s, with 50s over the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama. Tonight will be clear and cool with a low in the 40s.

Tomorrow promises to be a delightful day; a partly sunny sky with temperatures rising up into the mid to upper 70s by afternoon. Then, clouds return tomorrow night as moisture levels rise.

STORMY EASTER SUNDAY: Showers will move northward during the pre-dawn hours Sunday, possibly reaching I-20 (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston) by daybreak. Showers and a few storms will become more widespread by midday. It won’t rain all day, but expect occasional showers and some thunder. Temperatures will rise into the mid 70s Sunday afternoon.

We will have some risk of strong, maybe even severe thunderstorms Sunday night as the next upper trough approaches. SPC has the northwest corner of Alabama in a “slight risk”… with a “marginal risk” for other parts of North, West, and South Alabama.

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The latest guidance shows dew points rising into the upper 60s over West Alabama Sunday evening, making for a rather unstable airmass (CAPE values over 1,500 j/kg). Seems like the main threat will come from strong thunderstorm winds, although an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, especially over Northwest Alabama. At this point it looks like the core severe weather risk will come from about 6:00 through 12:00 midnight Sunday night.

We should note a wedge of cooler air should keep Northeast Alabama stable, so there is little risk of severe weather there.

NEXT WEEK: Monday and Tuesday will be dry and pleasant; highs will be in the upper 60s Monday, followed by low to mid 70s Tuesday. Another round of showers and strong storms is likely Wednesday night into early Thursday morning… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Expect occasional showers and thunderstorms on the coast from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach tomorrow and Sunday, but dry weather returns Monday and Tuesday. Highs on the immediate coast will stay in the 60s due to the cool ocean water… 70s are likely just a mile or so inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

STORM SPOTTER TRAINING: Storm Spotter Xtreme is coming up Saturday, April 9 at the BJCC from 9am to 2pm. This will feature both the basic and advanced SKYWARN classes, along with a session from Kevin Laws of the Birmingham NWS office. And, if you come, you get free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show, going on at the BJCC that same day. There is no cost and no need to register. Just show up with a curious mind. Kids 10 and older will also enjoy this if they love weather and want to learn more. Please help us make the severe weather warning process better!

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I had a great time today visiting with first grade students at South Shades Crest and Montevallo Elementary Schools… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted early Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Showers/Storms Return Sunday

| 6:32 am March 25, 2016

DRY AIR RETURNS: Severe weather was a no-show over the northern half of Alabama yesterday, and nobody is complaining. A large mass of storms near the Gulf Coast shut off the good inflow of moisture up into our part of the state, and some midday rain helped to keep the atmosphere cool and stable. A line of severe storms did move through the southern part of the state, however, with scattered reports of wind damage.

Today will be dry with a partly to mostly sunny sky; we project a high in the mid 60s this afternoon.

The weather will be dry and warmer tomorrow… we reach the mid 70s with a partly to mostly sunny sky. A very nice Saturday.

EASTER SUNDAY: Clouds thicken tomorrow night as moisture levels begin to rise, and we will forecast occasional showers and thunderstorms Sunday. The high resolution NAM shows showers forming over the southern two-thirds of the state before sunrise, with the rain becoming more widespread during the day.

SPC has defined a “slight risk” of severe storms for the northwest corner of the state, with a “marginal risk” for parts of West and South Alabama…

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There will be some surface based instability by Sunday afternoon, but higher values are to the west, and wind fields for now look relatively weak. But, you have to watch any system like this closely in March/April, the core of our spring tornado season.

NEXT WEEK: The weather will be dry Monday and Tuesday, then showers and storms return Wednesday night into Thursday. This could be another setup for strong storms, but the main surface low is far to the north, near the Canadian border, so hopefully we will get away with no severe weather issues. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Today will be mostly sunny on the coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores, but showers and storms are likely at times over the weekend… some coastal communities could see over two inches of rain. Then, the weather looks dry Monday and Tuesday of next week. Highs along the immediate coast hold in the 60s (due to the cool ocean water), with 70s elsewhere. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 63 degrees early this morning. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

STORM SPOTTER TRAINING: Storm Spotter Xtreme is coming up Saturday, April 9 at the BJCC from 9am to 2pm. This will feature both the basic and advanced SKYWARN classes, along with a session from Kevin Laws of the Birmingham NWS office. And, if you come, you get free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show, going on at the BJCC that same day. There is no cost and no need to register. Just show up with a curious mind. Kids 10 and older will also enjoy this if they love weather and want to learn more. Please help us make the severe weather warning process better!

FYI… we will also offer a basic spotter class on Tuesday April 5 in Helena at 6:30 (at the Helena Civic Center).

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I have weather programs today at South Shades Crest Elementary in Hoover… and Montevallo Elementary in Shelby County. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Dry Through The Weekend

| 3:03 pm February 25, 2016

COOL AFTERNOON: Temperatures are pretty close to 50 degrees across North/Central Alabama this afternoon with sunshine through scattered clouds…

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Tonight will be mostly fair and cold; temperatures early tomorrow morning will be very close to freezing.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: We project sunny days, clear nights, and a warming trend. We will be in the mid 50s tomorrow, close to 60 Saturday, and up in the 65-69 degree range Sunday afternoon.

NEXT WEEK: A weak front will bring just the chance of widely scattered showers Monday; rain amounts will be light and spotty. Then, we will deal with a stronger system at mid-week.

The 12Z runs of both the GFS and the ECMWF (Euro) are faster, suggesting a band of showers and storms will blow through Alabama Tuesday night. And, the dynamic support is weaker, suggesting some potential for gusty winds, but suggesting the threat of severe storms will be lower. But, understand this will change a number of times in coming days. We will have a much higher confidence in this event by the weekend. Take some time and see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I had a great time today visiting the 3rd graders at Walter Kennedy Elementary in Pell City, and the 1st graders at Eden Elementary, also in Pell City. Be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…