Tag: dry

More Wet Weather By Saturday Night

| December 1, 2016 @ 2:58 pm

BLUE SKY: As advertised, this is a cool, dry day across the great state of Alabama with ample sunshine and temperatures generally in the mid to upper 50s this afternoon. The average high for December 1 (for Birmingham) is 60.

Tonight will be clear and cold; most communities will see a low near the freezing mark early tomorrow, with 20s for the colder spots. And, tomorrow will stay mostly sunny with a high in the low 60s.

RAIN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND: Clouds return to Alabama Saturday ahead of the next weather system to the west in this active pattern, and some rain could creep into West Alabama by afternoon. Then, expect periods of rain Saturday night and Sunday. A warm front will be to the south, so it will be a chilly rain with many North Alabama communities holding in the 40s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: A deepening surface low will move from near Lake Charles to Memphis Monday and Monday night, and the warm front lifts northward, putting much of Alabama in the warm sector. Showers are likely during the day Monday, and then we will have the chance of strong thunderstorms late in the day, Monday night, and into early Tuesday morning. Pretty hard to be specific this far in advance, but for now it looks like severe storms could be an issue again for the state Monday night. We will keep a close eye on severe weather parameters as the event gets closer.

Rain and storms will end Tuesday morning as we get into a dry slot. On the positive side, rain amounts from Saturday night to Tuesday morning will be in the 2 to 4 inch range again for most of the state, very beneficial.

COLDEST AIR SO FAR: An Arctic front will move through Wednesday with a chance of some light rain, and then we will see a shot of very cold air dropping southward from the Yukon. I would expect by Thursday and Friday we will have a hard time getting out of the 30s, and lows could reach the upper teens by Friday or Saturday morning (December 9-10).

12-9_e

HURRICANE SEASON IS OVER: The 2016 Atlantic basin hurricane season ended yesterday. Tthis was the first above-normal season since 2012. The Atlantic saw 15 named storms during 2016, including 7 hurricanes (Alex, Earl, Gaston, Hermine, Matthew, Nicole, and Otto), 3 of which were major hurricanes (Gaston, Matthew and Nicole). NOAA’s updated hurricane season outlook in August called for 12 to 17 named storms, including 5 to 8 hurricanes, with 2 to 4 of those predicted to become major hurricanes.

Five named storms made landfall in the United States during 2016, the most since 2008 when six storms struck. Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane Matthew struck South Carolina. Tropical Storms Colin and Julia, as well as Hurricane Hermine, made landfall in Florida. Hermine was the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida since Wilma in 2005.

Several Atlantic storms made landfall outside of the United States during 2016: Tropical Storm Danielle in Mexico, Hurricane Earl in Belize, Hurricane Matthew in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas, and Hurricane Otto in Nicaragua.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I had a great time today visiting with kindergarten students at Striplin Elementary in Gadsden, and with 4th graders at Kitty Stone Elementary in Jacksonville… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 4:00 and 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Wet/Stormy Weather For Alabama Next Week

| November 25, 2016 @ 4:28 pm

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video… we are on a holiday schedule. Back to “two a days” Monday**

PLEASANT LATE NOVEMBER DAY: Temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 60s across Alabama today with a mix of sun and clouds. Tonight will be mostly fair and chilly with a low in the mid 30s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Cool, dry weather is the story… mostly sunny days and fair nights. The high tomorrow will be close to 60, followed by mid 60s Sunday. Most communities will see a light freeze early Sunday morning.

IRON BOWL: It will be a delightful day for the biggest football game of the year in Alabama tomorrow in Tuscaloosa. We project a kickoff (2:30p CT) temperature near 61 degrees, falling into the 50s during the second half. The sky will be clear, and there is no chance of rain.

BADLY NEEDED RAIN NEXT WEEK: After our mid-month pattern break, with the upper ridge going away here across the Deep South, the first two waves passed through with little moisture to work with.  The complex system next week will have an entirely kind of different airmass to work with. 

Monday will be a mild/breezy day with rising dew points; the high will be in the low 70s. The first batch of rain and storms will push into the state Monday night. We will need to monitor this system for severe weather potential, although at the moment it looks like the surface low will be a little too far north, and wind fields a little too weak for a big threat.

Rain could diminish during the day Tuesday as a surface boundary shifts down into Alabama, but a wave of low pressure is expected to form on the front Tuesday night, with rain surging northward again. A good rain event seems likely Tuesday night into Wednesday, and by Wednesday night much of North/Central Alabama should have experienced 2-3 inches of rain, or maybe even more in spots.


For now the weather looks dry Thursday and Friday of next week, followed by another rain event over the following weekend (December 3-4).

And, in the long range, the European ensemble guidance still suggests some robust rain amounts for much of Alabama through the end of the year, very encouraging….


AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through the weekend; highs in the 70s. 

Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Multiple Day Rain/Storm Event Next Week

| November 25, 2016 @ 7:09 am

HIGH HOPES FOR NEXT WEEK: As I have written here many times, it takes time getting into a drought, and it takes time getting out of one as well. The blocked pattern “flipped” last week, opening the door for multiple traversing mid latitude waves. The pattern change doesn’t mean the heavens open up and it rains for days and days, it simply breaks the upper air traffic jam that had our state under a mean upper ridge for so long. Part of the process that brings rain back in here.

The first two waves came through with a very dry airmass in place, producing only light and spotty rain, pretty much meaningless concerning drought relief. But, next week should be a very different story. More about that later.

FOGGY START: A dense fog advisory is in effect for parts of Alabama this morning; once that burns off the sky will be partly to mostly sunny, and today’s high will be in the mid to upper 60s for most places. About 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Sunny pleasant days, clear chilly nights. The high tomorrow will be in the 59-62 degree range, followed by mid 60s Sunday. A freeze is likely for most communities early Sunday morning with a low down in the low 30s.

IRON BOWL: A beautiful day for football in Tuscaloosa tomorrow. For our state’s biggest game of the year (Auburn at Alabama, 2:30p CT kickoff at Bryant Denny Stadium), the sky will be sunny with temperatures falling from 62 degrees at kickoff, into the 50s during the second half.

WET, STORMY WEEK: Prayers for rain will be answered next week. A storm system will move out of the Rockies Monday, and ahead of that the Gulf of Mexico will be “wide open”. A southerly flow will bring in moist air and higher dew points, and the first batch of showers and storms should move into the state Monday night. SPC has defined a risk of severe weather Monday for Louisiana and some of the adjacent states; we could very well have strong storms here Monday night; we will need to watch this closely for severe weather potential in Alabama… not necessarily for tornadoes, but for strong straight line winds.

Showers and storms should continue into at least part of the day Tuesday, and a wave of low pressure will form along the front, with yet another batch of rain and storms likely on Wednesday. WPC (NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center) is now suggesting rain amounts of 2-4 inches for most of North/Central Alabama. This will punch the drought in the gut.

wpc_total_precip_conus2_28

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights through the weekend from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores. Highs will be in the 70s… showers and storms will arrive early next week. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

OTTO: The system made it across Central America and is now in the eastern Pacific (now a tropical storm)… it will dissipate over open water next week. The Atlantic basin is quiet.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

We are on a holiday schedule so just one video today, but I will post more forecast notes here later this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Mild Thanksgiving Afternoon

| November 24, 2016 @ 3:52 pm

**No Weather Xtreme video this afternoon; we are on a holiday schedule with one video per day**

DELIGHTFUL DAY: Temperatures are in the 71-75 degree range for most Alabama communities this afternoon; over 10 degrees above average. FYI… today’s record high for Birmingham is 79 degrees, set in 1921.

DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Mostly sunny days, fair nights tomorrow through Sunday. The high tomorrow will be inn the upper 60s, but cooler air drops in for the weekend. Saturday’s high will be in the low 60s, followed by mid 60s Sunday. Many places will see a light freeze early Sunday morning.

IRON BOWL: A beautiful day for football in Tuscaloosa Saturday. For our state’s biggest game of the year (Auburn at Alabama, 2:30p CT kickoff at Bryant Denny Stadium), the sky will be sunny with temperatures falling from 62 degrees at kickoff, into the 50s during the second half.

STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK: Moist air finally returns to Alabama Monday, and by Tuesday dew points will be in the 60s for the first time in many weeks. A rather dynamic storm system will bring rain and storms to the state Tuesday and Tuesday night; we have good potential for one inch of rain or more for most of Alabama. It remains to be seen if severe storms will threaten the state, the 12Z global model runs show a lower severe weather risk, but it is still too early to be sure.

Drier air moves in by Wednesday afternoon, the next storm system will threaten the state with more rain the following weekend (December 3-4). The GFS is showing some very nice rain totals for Alabama over the next ten days…

gfs_tprecip_ky_41

OTTO: Hurricane Otto moved into Central America this morning… it will emerge into the eastern Pacific late tonight where it will get the name “Tina”. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through the weekend with highs in the 70s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Light Rain Tomorrow; Very Active Next Week

| November 22, 2016 @ 6:20 am

ANOTHER COLD MORNING: Temperatures are generally in the 20s across North/Central Alabama again this morning; our Skywatcher Vic Bell at Black Creek reports 21 degrees just before sunrise. Today will feature a sun filled sky with a high between 67 and 70 degrees for most places.

TO THE WEST: Severe storms are possible later today and tonight over parts of East Texas and Southeast Oklahoma, ahead of a weather system coming out of the Rockies. Clouds will increase across Alabama after midnight tonight, and it won’t be as cold as recent nights.

TOMORROW: We will continue to mention a chance of mostly light rain across North and Central Alabama tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Latest model output is now suggesting rain amounts of about 0.10″ for most places, with a few spots seeing 0.20″. Remember, soil moisture is depleted due to the drought and there is less water available for evaporation from the soil surface, and less water available for transpiration from vegetation. This is why it is so hard to break out of a drought, and these initial waves after the pattern flip are struggling to produce meaningful rain.

While the light rain tomorrow won’t make a dent in the drought, anything we get is certainly welcome. The sky will be generally cloudy tomorrow with a high again in the 67-70 degree range.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Clouds could linger into Thanksgiving morning, but the sky becomes partly sunny Thursday afternoon with a high close to 70 degrees. Black Friday looks good with ample sunshine and a high also near 70. Cooler air slips into the state over the weekend; we expect a high in the low 60s Saturday and upper 60s Sunday… the air stays dry and the sky will be mostly sunny both days.

IRON BOWL: For the biggest college football game of the year in Alabama, Saturday for now looks like a perfect day for the game, with ample sunshine and a kickoff temperature in Tuscaloosa (2:30p at Bryant-Denny Stadium) near 63 degrees, falling into the 50s by the final whistle.

ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK: Most folks will “believe it when they see it” when it comes to rain returning to Alabama, but global models are on board for a very active week with multiple rounds of showers, even potential for strong thunderstorms along the way. Rain and storms are a good bet in the Monday-Tuesday time frame, with more rain later in the week. Some beneficial rain amounts are likely.

ecmwf_pwat_slp_ky_32

Just too early to know if we will have a severe weather threat, but understand this is the fall tornado season in Alabama, and even though it has been so dry for so long, we have to be vigilant. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Just a small risk of a shower on the coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores Thursday and Friday, otherwise mostly sunny days and fair nights through the weekend with highs mostly in the 70s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

OTTO: The tropical storm in the far Southwest Caribbean is not moving this morning, but it will begin to drift to the west later today, and make landfall on the Central American coast later this week. No impact on the U.S. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Warm Tomorrow/Friday, Then A Chilly Weekend

| November 16, 2016 @ 3:28 pm

WARM, THEN COLD: Get ready for a ride on the Alabama weather roller coaster. We project a high at or just over 80 degrees tomorrow; both the NAM and the GFS are now printing 81 for Birmingham. Makes sense with no soil moisture. We will be close to the record high for November 17, 82 degrees set in 1958. The air is dry, and the sky will be sunny. It will be the 60th consecutive day with no measurable rain for Birmingham.

FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWERS: The day Friday will be dry and still very mild with a high between 77 and 80. But, a cold front will push a band of showers into North Alabama late Friday night; we still believe the main window for showers will come from 10:00 p.m. Friday through 6:00 a.m. Saturday. Some notes on this chance of rain…

*Best chance of showers will be along and north of I-20 (Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston)
*No risk of severe weather, and probably no thunder
*Heavier rain amounts will be over the far northwest corner of the state, where about 1/4″ is possible
*Most of North/Central Alabama will see under 0.10″, so this won’t make a dent in the drought.
*With the higher rain probabilities between midnight and 6 a.m…. most of you will sleep through it

WEEKEND CHILL: After the frontal passage, the coldest air so far this season will blow in here. The sky becomes mostly sunny Saturday, but we won’t get out of the 50s, and a north wind of 12-22 mph will make it feel colder. By Sunday morning, a freeze is a good possibility for most communities, and the high Sunday afternoon will also be in the 50s despite a sunny sky.

Coldest morning, most likely, will come early Monday when upper 20s are likely. This cold snap will wrap up the 2016 growing season for the northern half of Alabama.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school football playoff games Friday night, rain is possible over the northwest corner of the state, otherwise clouds will increase with temperatures in the 60s.

Alabama will host Chattanooga Saturday night at Bryant-Denny Stadium (6:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling from 52 at kickoff to near 40 degrees by the final whistle.

Auburn hosts Alabama A&M Saturday night at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6:30p CT kickoff)… mostly fair with temperatures falling from the low 50s at kickoff, and into the low 40s by the fourth quarter.

THANKSGIVING WEEK: Dry and cool weather continues Monday and Tuesday, but a storm system will bring rain into Alabama Wednesday, when amounts to 1/2 inch are possible. Then, Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday look cool and dry with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

gfs_ptype_slp_ky_30

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: A disturbance over the Southwest Caribbean could develop slowly later this week, but steering currents are weak, and little movement is expected over the next five days if something forms there.

AT THE BEACH: Sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through the weekend. Highs in the 70s through Friday, falling into the 60s this weekend. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

DROUGHT UPDATE: From the Alabama Forestry Commission: “Since the first of October, a total of 1,721 wildfires have destroyed over 20,000 acres of land in Alabama. While these large fires as well as numerous smaller ones continue to burn here in the state, many other wildfires are burning in the surrounding Southern states, all contributing to a vast quantity of smoke in the atmosphere.

A statewide ‘No Burn’ Order remains in effect, in which all outdoor or open burning is prohibited. This Drought Emergency Order was declared by Alabama Governor Robert Bentley on November 7, although burn restrictions have been in place since early October. This regulation makes it illegal for any person to set fire to any forest, grass, woods, wildlands or marshes; build a campfire or bonfire; or burn trash or debris. If convicted, the penalty for violating the No Burn Order is up to six months in jail and a fine of up to $500.00.”

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…