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Mostly Dry Through The Weekend

| 3:25 pm June 4, 2015

QUIET EARLY JUNE DAY: Nothing on radar this afternoon across the northern half of Alabama; the sky is mostly sunny, and temperatures are generally in the low to mid 80s. The exception is Northeast Alabama, where they are only in the 70s… it is a case of “cold air damming”… cooler draining into the state down the slopes of the Appalachian Mountains from the east. Fort Payne is barely out of the 60s at mid-afternoon.

Temperatures

MOSTLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY: The overall pattern won’t change much through the weekend, as we remain on the western periphery of an upper low over the Carolinas. Sinking air motion will generally prevent showers from forming, and the chance of any one spot seeing an afternoon shower over the northern half of the state is only about five percent through the weekend. Temperatures will creep upward, with afternoon highs in the 86 to 90 degree range.

NEXT WEEK: Monday still looks mostly rain-free, but we expect an increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms across the state Tuesday and Wednesday as temperatures aloft cool (making the air more unstable), and moisture levels increase. Highs will drop back into the low and mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday due to the increase in clouds and showers.

We also note the GFS tries to develop a tropical type low in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico toward the end of next week; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores through early next week with only widely scattered showers and storms each day. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the low to mid 80s, with temperatures reaching the 87-90 degree range just a few miles inland. Sea water temperatures are generally in the low to mid 80s.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains quiet; over in the East Pacific Hurricane Blanca is packing sustained winds of 110 mph; it will be close to the southern tip of Baja California late in the weekend, but it will be rapidly weakening at that time.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Slow Warming Trend Continues

| 6:26 am June 4, 2015

GENERALLY DRY: While the chance of a shower is not zero, most communities around here will stay rain-free through the weekend as we continue to see sinking motion (subsidence) on the west side of an upper low that is near Greenville, SC this morning. And, the weather will continue to trend warmer. We project a high in the mid 80s today, upper 80s tomorrow, and then highs between 87 and 90 over the weekend. Days will be partly sunny, nights will be mostly fair, and the chance of any one spot seeing an afternoon shower will be in the 5 to 10 percent range.

NEXT WEEK: Showers remain isolated Monday, but there could be a slow increase in the number of scattered showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday and Wednesday as moisture levels rise, and a weak surface boundary approaches from the north. Highs will be generally in the mid to upper 80s; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights through early next week from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores, with only widely scattered showers and thunderstorms around each day. Highs on the immediate coast will range from 82 to 85, with 87 to 90 degree warmth just a few miles inland each afternoon. The sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 82 degrees.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains quiet; over in the eastern Pacific Hurricane Blanca is packing sustained winds of 125 mph, and will be close to the southern tip of Baja California by Saturday, but it will be weakening considerably by then.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Warmer Days Ahead; Mostly Dry

| 3:42 pm June 3, 2015

RADAR CHECK: As expected, showers and storms are very hard to find across Alabama today; there are a few near the Georgia border, but they are pretty isolated. Elsewhere, the sky is partly sunny with temperatures generally in the low 80s. Some communities north of Birmingham are only in the 70s.

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REST OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND: A relatively dry weather pattern will continue across Alabama for the next five days. Understand the chance of rain is not zero, but the daily risk of any one spot seeing a shower or thunderstorm is only in the 5 to 15 percent range, and mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Otherwise, partly sunny days and fair nights through Sunday. We reach the mid 80s tomorrow, upper 80s Friday, and some spots could reach 90 degrees Saturday and Sunday as the warming trend continues.

NEXT WEEK: Looks like we will see a gradual increase in the number of showers and storms, especially by Tuesday and Wednesday with a surface front approaching from the north. Not sure if any drier air will reach Alabama later in the week, however. Highs next week should be mostly in the mid to upper 80s, right at seasonal averages for mid-June in Alabama. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores through early next week with only widely scattered showers and storms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the low to mid 80s, with upper 80s just a few miles inland. The sea water temperature this afternoon at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 84 degrees.

TOPIC: TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected for the rest of the week. Over in the eastern Pacific, Blanca is now a major hurricane with winds of 140 mph well west of the Mexican coast; it will approach the southern tip of Baja California this weekend while weakening. Some moisture from this could impact the Southwest U.S. early next week.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Warmer Temperatures This Weekend

| 3:33 pm May 22, 2015

COBALT BLUE SKY: Again today, the weather feels more like October across the great state of Alabama, with a deep blue sky and bright sunshine. The humidity is low, and temperatures are in the 70s. Tonight will be clear and cool; most communities will see a low in the low to mid 50s early tomorrow, but colder pockets could visit the 40s again.

THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: The weather stays dry tomorrow and Sunday, but afternoons will be warmer, and humidity levels will slowly creep up. Look for mid 80s both afternoons with a good supply of sunshine through scattered clouds.

Then, on Monday, moisture levels rise, and we will bring in the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms, most likely during the afternoon and evening hours. Otherwise, expect a mix of sun and clouds with a high in the low 80s.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: Not much change; warm and humid days with the risk of scattered showers and storms each day along with highs in the 80s. The 12Z GFS does trend drier Thursday and Friday of next week as the upper ridge grows stronger, with showers becoming more widely spaced. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

SEC BASEBALL: The weather could not be better for the rest of the tournament at the Hoover Metropolitan Stadium this weekend; no rain through Sunday with mostly sunny days and fair nights. A jacket or sweater will be a good idea tonight with temperatures falling through the 60s, but it will be warmer tomorrow and Sunday with afternoon temperatures in the 80s.

AT THE BEACH: Expect a sunny sky tomorrow from Panama City west to Gulf Shores with a high in the low 80s; then about 7 to 9 hours of sunshine Sunday, and on through all of next week with only widely scattered showers or thunderstorms. Afternoon temperatures on the immediate coast will continue to peak in the low 80s, and the sea water temperature this afternoon at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 78 degrees.

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(Gulf Shores photo today from @cait_hunn)

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here Monday morning by 7:00 a.m…. Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

May Begins With A Dry Spell

| 6:10 am May 1, 2015

COOL MORNING: Black Creek is at 37… Fort Payne is reporting 39 degrees at daybreak; it might be sometime in October before another North Alabama low in the 30s. The sky is clear, and the air is dry. We expect sunshine in full supply today with a high generally in the low 70s this afternoon.

SUNNY MAY WEEKEND: The air stays dry, and the sky will stay sunny tomorrow and Sunday with a warming trend. We rise into the 76-79 degree range tomorrow, and Sunday’s high will be very close to 80. You could not ask for better weather for race weekend at Talladega, spring sports, or anything else you want to do outside.

SUMMER PREVIEW NEXT WEEK: An upper ridge will begin to build across the eastern part of the nation, and we expect the warmest week so far this year with highs in the low to mid 80s each day. The ridge will also keep the rain producing systems away, and for now we see no reason to forecast any significant chance of rain through the entire week. Bottom line is that at least the first seven days of May will be rain-free.

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AT THE BEACH: Sunny days, clear nights on the Gulf Coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores over the weekend and through next week. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the mid to upper 70s, and the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 72 degrees.

MAY BY THE NUMBERS: The average high in Birmingham will rise from 78 degrees today to 84 by the end of the month. The average rain for the month is 4.83?, and this is the last month of the spring tornado season. Hottest May temperature on record is 99 degrees, recorded on May 28, 1962, and May 29, 1898.

The hurricane season is now a month away, it begins on June 1. Most are expecting a rather quiet season again in the Atlantic basin due to the current El Nino cycle; the first named storm this year will be called Ana, followed by Bill, Claudette, and Danny.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I have a weather program this morning at Spring Valley School in Birmingham… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Long Dry Spell Ahead

| 3:30 pm April 30, 2015

RADAR CHECK: So far, no far no showers have shown up across North Alabama today despite the very cold air aloft associated with an upper trough. Closest rain to us is over Tennessee north of Chattanooga…

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An isolated shower or two could still show up around the northeast corner of the state this evening, but it looks like most communities will be dry tonight. We drop down into the 45-49 degree range early tomorrow with a mostly clear sky.

TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: Pretty much a case of severe clear as the month of May begins. We expect sunny days, clear nights, and a slow warming trend. The high tomorrow will be in the low 70s, followed by upper 70s Saturday. Sunday’s high will be very close to 80 degrees. Fantastic weather for race weekend at Talladega, spring sports, or anything else you want to do outside.

NEXT WEEK: An upper ridge should keep our state warm and dry; the high will be in the low to mid 80s each day with partly sunny days and fair nights. Most of the active weather will be well to the west, across parts of the Great Plains and the Upper Midwest. QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts) charts are showing not a drop of rain for Alabama through next Thursday.

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RAIN UPDATE: Birmingham finished April with 10.24″… the total for the year is 23.17″, and the surplus is 4.33″.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today seeing the first graders at Montevallo Elementary School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…