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One More Dry Day For Alabama

| 3:43 pm August 27, 2015

ANOTHER PLEASANT AUGUST DAY: With a good supply of sunshine, temperatures are mostly in the mid 80s across the great state of Alabama this afternoon, and again there is no rain on radar. Today is the 12th consecutive day with a high under 90 (at Birmingham), and fourth consecutive day with no rain.

We stay dry tomorrow… the sky will be partly to mostly sunny with a high close to 90 in most places.

THE WEEKEND: Moisture levels will rise, and we will mention the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. Otherwise, expect a mix of sun and clouds with a high in the mid 80s. Chance of any one spot getting wet both days is about one in three; best chance of showers will come during the afternoon and evening hours, but we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower as well.

NEXT WEEK: While eyes will be on potential Hurricane Erika just off the South Atlantic Coast of the U.S., our weather looks relatively quiet, with partly sunny days, fair nights, and only widely scattered showers. Highs next week will be in the 88 to 91 degree range, about average for the end of August in Alabama.

CHALLENING TROPICAL FORECAST: We have more questions than answers with Tropical Storm Erika this afternoon. Convection is now displaced well to the east of the circulation center due to wind shear, and NHC estimates maximum sustained winds at 45 mph. Also, the center has reformed farther to the south, putting computer model data into question due to poor initialization.

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Strengthening is not expected for the next three days due to shear, and interaction with Hispaniola. In fact, it is not totally out of the question that Erika dissipates like Danny last week. But, there is a pretty good chance it survives, and conditions will favor strengthening by Sunday and Monday. The official NHC track has been adjusted slightly to the left, putting Erika near the Florida Atlantic Coast Monday as a category one hurricane.

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Odds are still high this won’t be a Gulf of Mexico storm, but the chance is not zero. Overall forecast confidence is low, and expect changes in coming days. Everyone from the Florida Peninsula up to the North Carolina Outer Banks will need to keep an eye on this one.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Mostly sunny weather continues tomorrow from Gulf Shores west to Panama City Beach; then for the weekend expect about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine both days with potential for a few scattered thunderstorms. A little too early for a specific Labor Day weekend forecast, but at the moment we don’t see anything that would suggest significant problems.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will have a special Hurricane Katrina 10th Anniversary special tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7” on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Slow Warming Trend Ahead

| 6:19 am August 27, 2015

SLOW WARM-UP: Another delightful morning; Vic Bell up at Black Creek reports 54 degrees, many of the cooler pockets across North Alabama are between 53 and 58 for another nice taste of fall. Expect another sunny day today with a high in the mid 80s; the humidity will stay low. We stay dry tomorrow with a high in the upper 80s, and a few spots could touch 90. Keep in mind today is the 12th consecutive day with a high below 90 degrees in Birmingham.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Moisture levels rise, and we will need to mention a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms both days. Not a wash-out, but keep in mind you will have to dodge an occasional passing shower or storm Saturday and Sunday. Otherwise, days will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the mid 80s.

NEXT WEEK: A decent chance we get into the subsidence ring surrounding what should be Hurricane Erika, meaning showers will be few and far between. Partly sunny days, fair nights, and highs in the 87 to 90 degree range most afternoons.

ERIKA: The tropical storm near the Leeward Islands is getting stronger and better organized this morning; maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be 50 mph.

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The system is expected to move through the Bahamas over the weekend, then reaching hurricane strength just off the Florida Atlantic Coast Monday.

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It is important to note that this forecast track can, and probably will change, so all interests in the Florida Peninsula up through the coast of the Carolinas need to keep a close eye on this. We are very confident this will not be a Gulf of Mexico storm, and there will be no direct impact on Alabama (we stay on the dry side). See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny weather continues today and tomorrow along the coast from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores with only a slight risk of a shower. Then, for the weekend, about 6 to 8 hours of sun Saturday and Sunday with a passing storm possible from time to time. Highs on the coast will stay in the 80s, and sea water temperatures remain mostly in the mid 80s.

Erika will have no impact on the Central Gulf Coast. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce a special on the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7” on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

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I will be the emcee of a fundraiser today for the Leukemia & Lymphoma Society in Birmingham… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Fine August Morning

| 6:31 am August 13, 2015

TOUCH OF FALL: Most North Alabama communities are in the 60s this morning, but a few spots have fallen into the upper 50s, including Fort Payne.

Temperatures

And, early risers have enjoyed the Perseid meteor shower peak in the crisp air; photo below is from @blackswampstorm

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Expect a good supply of sunshine today; humidity levels will stay low, and the high will be around 90 degrees.

TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: Moisture levels begin to creep back up, and we will introduce the risk of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, the day will be partly sunny with a high close to 91 degrees. Not much change for the weekend; we will have the risk of a passing show or storm in a few spots Saturday and Sunday afternoon, otherwise partly sunny days with a high at or just over 90 degrees.

NEXT WEEK: Global models have shown evidence from time to time of a broad upper low forming across the Deep South, which could mean a slow increase in the number of scattered showers and storms during the first half of the week. Afternoon highs will remain mostly in the low 90s… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Not much change through the weekend; about 7 to 9 hours of sunshine from Gulf Shores west to Panama City Beach with a passing storm from time to time. Highs on the immediate coast in the upper 80s, with low 90s inland. And, sea water temperatures are mostly in the mid 80s.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

TROPICS: New day, old forecast. The Atlantic basin remains quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend.

ON THIS DATE IN 2004: Hurricane Charley, packing 145-mph winds, took a sudden, hard right turn into Charlotte Harbor, in Southwest Florida south of Tampa. It killed four people in Charlotte County and 10 elsewhere. It was the city’s buildings that took the biggest hit. Of 656 commercial structures in Punta Gorda, Charley damaged or destroyed half. At the time, Charley was the second-costliest hurricane in U.S. history, with $15.1 billion in damage.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Lower Humidity; Cooler Tonight

| 5:40 am August 12, 2015

VERY PLEASANT FOR MID-AUGUST: While we still expect a high close to 90 degrees today, drier air will drop the dew points into the 50s by mid to late afternoon, meaning lower humidity levels and much more comfortable conditions. And, no risk of showers or storms today with a good supply of summer sunshine.

TONIGHT: A great night for viewing the peak of the Perseid meteor shower (best viewing will come after midnight)… the sky will be clear, and temperatures will drop down into the mid 60s by daybreak tomorrow. Cooler pockets across North Alabama will be closer to 60 for a nice touch of fall. Get up early enough tomorrow and you can almost hear those footballs flying.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Another great day tomorrow with ample sunshine, lower humidity, and a high close to 90. We will mention the risk of a few isolated afternoon showers Friday, but most of the day will be dry with a partly sunny sky, and again the high will be around 90.

THE WEEKEND: Moisture levels will be a tad higher, so a few spots could see an afternoon shower or thunderstorm both days, otherwise we will forecast partly sunny conditions Saturday and Sunday, with afternoon highs in the 88-92 degree range.

NEXT WEEK: A broad upper low is expected to be in place across the Deep South, so scattered showers and storms could be a little more numerous over the first half of the week, and afternoon highs will stay between 88 and 92 degrees. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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AT THE BEACH: About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily on the coast from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores through the weekend, with the usual risk of a passing thunderstorm from time to time. Highs on the coast will be in the upper 80s, with low to mid 90s inland. The sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 86 degrees.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

TROPICS: New day, old forecast. Nothing happen in the Atlantic basin through the weekend.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I will be speaking at Mississippi State University this morning…. look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Mostly Dry Through The Weekend

| 3:25 pm June 4, 2015

QUIET EARLY JUNE DAY: Nothing on radar this afternoon across the northern half of Alabama; the sky is mostly sunny, and temperatures are generally in the low to mid 80s. The exception is Northeast Alabama, where they are only in the 70s… it is a case of “cold air damming”… cooler draining into the state down the slopes of the Appalachian Mountains from the east. Fort Payne is barely out of the 60s at mid-afternoon.

Temperatures

MOSTLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY: The overall pattern won’t change much through the weekend, as we remain on the western periphery of an upper low over the Carolinas. Sinking air motion will generally prevent showers from forming, and the chance of any one spot seeing an afternoon shower over the northern half of the state is only about five percent through the weekend. Temperatures will creep upward, with afternoon highs in the 86 to 90 degree range.

NEXT WEEK: Monday still looks mostly rain-free, but we expect an increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms across the state Tuesday and Wednesday as temperatures aloft cool (making the air more unstable), and moisture levels increase. Highs will drop back into the low and mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday due to the increase in clouds and showers.

We also note the GFS tries to develop a tropical type low in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico toward the end of next week; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores through early next week with only widely scattered showers and storms each day. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the low to mid 80s, with temperatures reaching the 87-90 degree range just a few miles inland. Sea water temperatures are generally in the low to mid 80s.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains quiet; over in the East Pacific Hurricane Blanca is packing sustained winds of 110 mph; it will be close to the southern tip of Baja California late in the weekend, but it will be rapidly weakening at that time.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Slow Warming Trend Continues

| 6:26 am June 4, 2015

GENERALLY DRY: While the chance of a shower is not zero, most communities around here will stay rain-free through the weekend as we continue to see sinking motion (subsidence) on the west side of an upper low that is near Greenville, SC this morning. And, the weather will continue to trend warmer. We project a high in the mid 80s today, upper 80s tomorrow, and then highs between 87 and 90 over the weekend. Days will be partly sunny, nights will be mostly fair, and the chance of any one spot seeing an afternoon shower will be in the 5 to 10 percent range.

NEXT WEEK: Showers remain isolated Monday, but there could be a slow increase in the number of scattered showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday and Wednesday as moisture levels rise, and a weak surface boundary approaches from the north. Highs will be generally in the mid to upper 80s; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

Screen Shot 2015-06-04 at 5.15.40 AM

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AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights through early next week from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores, with only widely scattered showers and thunderstorms around each day. Highs on the immediate coast will range from 82 to 85, with 87 to 90 degree warmth just a few miles inland each afternoon. The sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 82 degrees.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains quiet; over in the eastern Pacific Hurricane Blanca is packing sustained winds of 125 mph, and will be close to the southern tip of Baja California by Saturday, but it will be weakening considerably by then.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Twitter
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!