Tag: dry

Warm Christmas Weekend Ahead

| December 23, 2016 @ 6:24 am

COLD START: Temperatures are at the freezing mark early this morning over parts of Northeast Alabama; both Gadsden and Fort Payne report 32 degrees just before sunrise. Today will feature a partly to mostly sunny sky with a high in the low 60s this afternoon.

CHRISTMAS WEEKEND: Moisture levels will rise, but an upper high over the Gulf Coast will keep most of the state dry. Best chance of showers over the weekend will come tomorrow over far North Alabama, near the Tennessee state line, otherwise most communities will be dry. The upper ridge will bring Christmas warmth to the region; the high tomorrow will be well into the 60s, and by Sunday we project a high between 70 and 75 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds.

This is our second warm Christmas in a row… here is a list of the warmest temperatures recorded on December 25 (based on data from the Birmingham Airport)…

77 2015
74 1987
73 1982, 1942
72 1964
71 1926, 1922
70 1901
69 1971
68 1974, 1904

TO THE NORTHWEST: A major Christmas Day storm will bring blizzard conditions to parts of Wyoming, Montana, and the Dakotas Sunday, with a chance of strong to severe storms over sections of Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma…

NEXT WEEK: Very mild weather continues through Wednesday; a few scattered showers are possible during the first half of the week with a stalled front north of Alabama, but nothing heavy or widespread. The most beneficial rain will come on Thursday ahead of a significant cold front, then we will see dry and much colder air Friday with highs only in the 40s.

And, long range global model data suggests a good rain event is possible here over the New Years weekend. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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We are now on a holiday schedule through New Years weekend… so just one Weather Xtreme video per day, but I will post fresh forecast notes this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Dry Through Friday; Mild Christmas Weekend

| December 21, 2016 @ 3:08 pm

THIS AFTERNOON: The sky is partly sunny, with temperatures mostly in the 55-60 degree range across North/Central Alabama….

Tomorrow and Friday will stay dry and pleasant, with partly sunny days and fair nights. Afternoon highs will be around 60 degrees.

CHRISTMAS WEEKEND: Moisture levels will rise as a southerly flow begins, and a few scattered showers are possible both days. The most widespread rain over the weekend will most likely come on Saturday over far North Alabama, for places near the Tennessee border. The sky will be generally cloudy with a high in the low 60s Sunday, followed by 70 degree warmth Christmas afternoon.

These are the warmest Christmas days on record, based on data from Birmingham…

77 2015
74 1987
73 1982, 1942
72 1964
71 1926, 1922
70 1901
69 1971
68 1974, 1904

NEXT WEEK: A cold front will stall out just north of here, so we will have a chance of showers on Monday and Tuesday. The main dynamic support will be way to the north, so rain probably won’t be too heavy. Then, another cold front arrives later in the week with another chance of showers Thursday, followed by colder air Friday and over the New Years weekend. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details…

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

More Wet Weather By Saturday Night

| December 1, 2016 @ 2:58 pm

BLUE SKY: As advertised, this is a cool, dry day across the great state of Alabama with ample sunshine and temperatures generally in the mid to upper 50s this afternoon. The average high for December 1 (for Birmingham) is 60.

Tonight will be clear and cold; most communities will see a low near the freezing mark early tomorrow, with 20s for the colder spots. And, tomorrow will stay mostly sunny with a high in the low 60s.

RAIN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND: Clouds return to Alabama Saturday ahead of the next weather system to the west in this active pattern, and some rain could creep into West Alabama by afternoon. Then, expect periods of rain Saturday night and Sunday. A warm front will be to the south, so it will be a chilly rain with many North Alabama communities holding in the 40s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: A deepening surface low will move from near Lake Charles to Memphis Monday and Monday night, and the warm front lifts northward, putting much of Alabama in the warm sector. Showers are likely during the day Monday, and then we will have the chance of strong thunderstorms late in the day, Monday night, and into early Tuesday morning. Pretty hard to be specific this far in advance, but for now it looks like severe storms could be an issue again for the state Monday night. We will keep a close eye on severe weather parameters as the event gets closer.

Rain and storms will end Tuesday morning as we get into a dry slot. On the positive side, rain amounts from Saturday night to Tuesday morning will be in the 2 to 4 inch range again for most of the state, very beneficial.

COLDEST AIR SO FAR: An Arctic front will move through Wednesday with a chance of some light rain, and then we will see a shot of very cold air dropping southward from the Yukon. I would expect by Thursday and Friday we will have a hard time getting out of the 30s, and lows could reach the upper teens by Friday or Saturday morning (December 9-10).

12-9_e

HURRICANE SEASON IS OVER: The 2016 Atlantic basin hurricane season ended yesterday. Tthis was the first above-normal season since 2012. The Atlantic saw 15 named storms during 2016, including 7 hurricanes (Alex, Earl, Gaston, Hermine, Matthew, Nicole, and Otto), 3 of which were major hurricanes (Gaston, Matthew and Nicole). NOAA’s updated hurricane season outlook in August called for 12 to 17 named storms, including 5 to 8 hurricanes, with 2 to 4 of those predicted to become major hurricanes.

Five named storms made landfall in the United States during 2016, the most since 2008 when six storms struck. Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane Matthew struck South Carolina. Tropical Storms Colin and Julia, as well as Hurricane Hermine, made landfall in Florida. Hermine was the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida since Wilma in 2005.

Several Atlantic storms made landfall outside of the United States during 2016: Tropical Storm Danielle in Mexico, Hurricane Earl in Belize, Hurricane Matthew in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas, and Hurricane Otto in Nicaragua.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I had a great time today visiting with kindergarten students at Striplin Elementary in Gadsden, and with 4th graders at Kitty Stone Elementary in Jacksonville… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 4:00 and 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Wet/Stormy Weather For Alabama Next Week

| November 25, 2016 @ 4:28 pm

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video… we are on a holiday schedule. Back to “two a days” Monday**

PLEASANT LATE NOVEMBER DAY: Temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 60s across Alabama today with a mix of sun and clouds. Tonight will be mostly fair and chilly with a low in the mid 30s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Cool, dry weather is the story… mostly sunny days and fair nights. The high tomorrow will be close to 60, followed by mid 60s Sunday. Most communities will see a light freeze early Sunday morning.

IRON BOWL: It will be a delightful day for the biggest football game of the year in Alabama tomorrow in Tuscaloosa. We project a kickoff (2:30p CT) temperature near 61 degrees, falling into the 50s during the second half. The sky will be clear, and there is no chance of rain.

BADLY NEEDED RAIN NEXT WEEK: After our mid-month pattern break, with the upper ridge going away here across the Deep South, the first two waves passed through with little moisture to work with.  The complex system next week will have an entirely kind of different airmass to work with. 

Monday will be a mild/breezy day with rising dew points; the high will be in the low 70s. The first batch of rain and storms will push into the state Monday night. We will need to monitor this system for severe weather potential, although at the moment it looks like the surface low will be a little too far north, and wind fields a little too weak for a big threat.

Rain could diminish during the day Tuesday as a surface boundary shifts down into Alabama, but a wave of low pressure is expected to form on the front Tuesday night, with rain surging northward again. A good rain event seems likely Tuesday night into Wednesday, and by Wednesday night much of North/Central Alabama should have experienced 2-3 inches of rain, or maybe even more in spots.


For now the weather looks dry Thursday and Friday of next week, followed by another rain event over the following weekend (December 3-4).

And, in the long range, the European ensemble guidance still suggests some robust rain amounts for much of Alabama through the end of the year, very encouraging….


AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through the weekend; highs in the 70s. 

Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Multiple Day Rain/Storm Event Next Week

| November 25, 2016 @ 7:09 am

HIGH HOPES FOR NEXT WEEK: As I have written here many times, it takes time getting into a drought, and it takes time getting out of one as well. The blocked pattern “flipped” last week, opening the door for multiple traversing mid latitude waves. The pattern change doesn’t mean the heavens open up and it rains for days and days, it simply breaks the upper air traffic jam that had our state under a mean upper ridge for so long. Part of the process that brings rain back in here.

The first two waves came through with a very dry airmass in place, producing only light and spotty rain, pretty much meaningless concerning drought relief. But, next week should be a very different story. More about that later.

FOGGY START: A dense fog advisory is in effect for parts of Alabama this morning; once that burns off the sky will be partly to mostly sunny, and today’s high will be in the mid to upper 60s for most places. About 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Sunny pleasant days, clear chilly nights. The high tomorrow will be in the 59-62 degree range, followed by mid 60s Sunday. A freeze is likely for most communities early Sunday morning with a low down in the low 30s.

IRON BOWL: A beautiful day for football in Tuscaloosa tomorrow. For our state’s biggest game of the year (Auburn at Alabama, 2:30p CT kickoff at Bryant Denny Stadium), the sky will be sunny with temperatures falling from 62 degrees at kickoff, into the 50s during the second half.

WET, STORMY WEEK: Prayers for rain will be answered next week. A storm system will move out of the Rockies Monday, and ahead of that the Gulf of Mexico will be “wide open”. A southerly flow will bring in moist air and higher dew points, and the first batch of showers and storms should move into the state Monday night. SPC has defined a risk of severe weather Monday for Louisiana and some of the adjacent states; we could very well have strong storms here Monday night; we will need to watch this closely for severe weather potential in Alabama… not necessarily for tornadoes, but for strong straight line winds.

Showers and storms should continue into at least part of the day Tuesday, and a wave of low pressure will form along the front, with yet another batch of rain and storms likely on Wednesday. WPC (NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center) is now suggesting rain amounts of 2-4 inches for most of North/Central Alabama. This will punch the drought in the gut.

wpc_total_precip_conus2_28

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights through the weekend from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores. Highs will be in the 70s… showers and storms will arrive early next week. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

OTTO: The system made it across Central America and is now in the eastern Pacific (now a tropical storm)… it will dissipate over open water next week. The Atlantic basin is quiet.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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We are on a holiday schedule so just one video today, but I will post more forecast notes here later this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Mild Thanksgiving Afternoon

| November 24, 2016 @ 3:52 pm

**No Weather Xtreme video this afternoon; we are on a holiday schedule with one video per day**

DELIGHTFUL DAY: Temperatures are in the 71-75 degree range for most Alabama communities this afternoon; over 10 degrees above average. FYI… today’s record high for Birmingham is 79 degrees, set in 1921.

DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Mostly sunny days, fair nights tomorrow through Sunday. The high tomorrow will be inn the upper 60s, but cooler air drops in for the weekend. Saturday’s high will be in the low 60s, followed by mid 60s Sunday. Many places will see a light freeze early Sunday morning.

IRON BOWL: A beautiful day for football in Tuscaloosa Saturday. For our state’s biggest game of the year (Auburn at Alabama, 2:30p CT kickoff at Bryant Denny Stadium), the sky will be sunny with temperatures falling from 62 degrees at kickoff, into the 50s during the second half.

STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK: Moist air finally returns to Alabama Monday, and by Tuesday dew points will be in the 60s for the first time in many weeks. A rather dynamic storm system will bring rain and storms to the state Tuesday and Tuesday night; we have good potential for one inch of rain or more for most of Alabama. It remains to be seen if severe storms will threaten the state, the 12Z global model runs show a lower severe weather risk, but it is still too early to be sure.

Drier air moves in by Wednesday afternoon, the next storm system will threaten the state with more rain the following weekend (December 3-4). The GFS is showing some very nice rain totals for Alabama over the next ten days…

gfs_tprecip_ky_41

OTTO: Hurricane Otto moved into Central America this morning… it will emerge into the eastern Pacific late tonight where it will get the name “Tina”. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through the weekend with highs in the 70s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Light Rain Tomorrow; Very Active Next Week

| November 22, 2016 @ 6:20 am

ANOTHER COLD MORNING: Temperatures are generally in the 20s across North/Central Alabama again this morning; our Skywatcher Vic Bell at Black Creek reports 21 degrees just before sunrise. Today will feature a sun filled sky with a high between 67 and 70 degrees for most places.

TO THE WEST: Severe storms are possible later today and tonight over parts of East Texas and Southeast Oklahoma, ahead of a weather system coming out of the Rockies. Clouds will increase across Alabama after midnight tonight, and it won’t be as cold as recent nights.

TOMORROW: We will continue to mention a chance of mostly light rain across North and Central Alabama tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Latest model output is now suggesting rain amounts of about 0.10″ for most places, with a few spots seeing 0.20″. Remember, soil moisture is depleted due to the drought and there is less water available for evaporation from the soil surface, and less water available for transpiration from vegetation. This is why it is so hard to break out of a drought, and these initial waves after the pattern flip are struggling to produce meaningful rain.

While the light rain tomorrow won’t make a dent in the drought, anything we get is certainly welcome. The sky will be generally cloudy tomorrow with a high again in the 67-70 degree range.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Clouds could linger into Thanksgiving morning, but the sky becomes partly sunny Thursday afternoon with a high close to 70 degrees. Black Friday looks good with ample sunshine and a high also near 70. Cooler air slips into the state over the weekend; we expect a high in the low 60s Saturday and upper 60s Sunday… the air stays dry and the sky will be mostly sunny both days.

IRON BOWL: For the biggest college football game of the year in Alabama, Saturday for now looks like a perfect day for the game, with ample sunshine and a kickoff temperature in Tuscaloosa (2:30p at Bryant-Denny Stadium) near 63 degrees, falling into the 50s by the final whistle.

ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK: Most folks will “believe it when they see it” when it comes to rain returning to Alabama, but global models are on board for a very active week with multiple rounds of showers, even potential for strong thunderstorms along the way. Rain and storms are a good bet in the Monday-Tuesday time frame, with more rain later in the week. Some beneficial rain amounts are likely.

ecmwf_pwat_slp_ky_32

Just too early to know if we will have a severe weather threat, but understand this is the fall tornado season in Alabama, and even though it has been so dry for so long, we have to be vigilant. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Just a small risk of a shower on the coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores Thursday and Friday, otherwise mostly sunny days and fair nights through the weekend with highs mostly in the 70s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

OTTO: The tropical storm in the far Southwest Caribbean is not moving this morning, but it will begin to drift to the west later today, and make landfall on the Central American coast later this week. No impact on the U.S. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Warm Tomorrow/Friday, Then A Chilly Weekend

| November 16, 2016 @ 3:28 pm

WARM, THEN COLD: Get ready for a ride on the Alabama weather roller coaster. We project a high at or just over 80 degrees tomorrow; both the NAM and the GFS are now printing 81 for Birmingham. Makes sense with no soil moisture. We will be close to the record high for November 17, 82 degrees set in 1958. The air is dry, and the sky will be sunny. It will be the 60th consecutive day with no measurable rain for Birmingham.

FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWERS: The day Friday will be dry and still very mild with a high between 77 and 80. But, a cold front will push a band of showers into North Alabama late Friday night; we still believe the main window for showers will come from 10:00 p.m. Friday through 6:00 a.m. Saturday. Some notes on this chance of rain…

*Best chance of showers will be along and north of I-20 (Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston)
*No risk of severe weather, and probably no thunder
*Heavier rain amounts will be over the far northwest corner of the state, where about 1/4″ is possible
*Most of North/Central Alabama will see under 0.10″, so this won’t make a dent in the drought.
*With the higher rain probabilities between midnight and 6 a.m…. most of you will sleep through it

WEEKEND CHILL: After the frontal passage, the coldest air so far this season will blow in here. The sky becomes mostly sunny Saturday, but we won’t get out of the 50s, and a north wind of 12-22 mph will make it feel colder. By Sunday morning, a freeze is a good possibility for most communities, and the high Sunday afternoon will also be in the 50s despite a sunny sky.

Coldest morning, most likely, will come early Monday when upper 20s are likely. This cold snap will wrap up the 2016 growing season for the northern half of Alabama.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school football playoff games Friday night, rain is possible over the northwest corner of the state, otherwise clouds will increase with temperatures in the 60s.

Alabama will host Chattanooga Saturday night at Bryant-Denny Stadium (6:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling from 52 at kickoff to near 40 degrees by the final whistle.

Auburn hosts Alabama A&M Saturday night at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6:30p CT kickoff)… mostly fair with temperatures falling from the low 50s at kickoff, and into the low 40s by the fourth quarter.

THANKSGIVING WEEK: Dry and cool weather continues Monday and Tuesday, but a storm system will bring rain into Alabama Wednesday, when amounts to 1/2 inch are possible. Then, Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday look cool and dry with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

gfs_ptype_slp_ky_30

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: A disturbance over the Southwest Caribbean could develop slowly later this week, but steering currents are weak, and little movement is expected over the next five days if something forms there.

AT THE BEACH: Sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through the weekend. Highs in the 70s through Friday, falling into the 60s this weekend. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

DROUGHT UPDATE: From the Alabama Forestry Commission: “Since the first of October, a total of 1,721 wildfires have destroyed over 20,000 acres of land in Alabama. While these large fires as well as numerous smaller ones continue to burn here in the state, many other wildfires are burning in the surrounding Southern states, all contributing to a vast quantity of smoke in the atmosphere.

A statewide ‘No Burn’ Order remains in effect, in which all outdoor or open burning is prohibited. This Drought Emergency Order was declared by Alabama Governor Robert Bentley on November 7, although burn restrictions have been in place since early October. This regulation makes it illegal for any person to set fire to any forest, grass, woods, wildlands or marshes; build a campfire or bonfire; or burn trash or debris. If convicted, the penalty for violating the No Burn Order is up to six months in jail and a fine of up to $500.00.”

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Friday Night Showers; Chilly Weekend

| November 16, 2016 @ 6:29 am

DRY STREAK ROLLS ALONG: A number of West Alabama communities did see enough rain to measure yesterday; Demopolis reported 0.26″. In the Birmingham metro, our Skywatcher team reported 0.02″ at Bessemer, and 0.01″ at Helena, but where the records are kept, Birmingham-Shuttlesworth Airport, there wasn’t enough rain to measure, so the dry spell continues. We also note the Tuscaloosa Airport only received a trace.

Today will be the 59th consecutive day without measurable rain for Birmingham, and the 60th dry day in a row for Tuscaloosa as our exceptional drought continues.

WARMER AFTERNOONS: Expect sunshine in full supply today and tomorrow with a warming trend. The high today will be in the 72-75 degree range, and tomorrow upper 70s are likely…. a few spots could easily touch 80 degrees with no soil moisture.

FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT: Friday will be dry and very mild with a high in the upper 70s… but we will introduce the chance of showers late Friday night ahead of a cold front. Moisture will be limited, and the main dynamic support well to the north, but most places should see enough rain to measure along and north of I-20.

sat_ecmwf

The main window for rain will come from 10:00 p.m. Friday through 6:00 a.m. Saturday… most of you will sleep right through it. No risk of severe weather, and probably no thunder.

CHILLY WEEKEND: After the front, we expect the coldest air so far this season over the weekend. Lots of sunshine Saturday and Sunday, but the weather will be breezy with highs only in the 50s. We drop to near the freezing mark early Sunday, and upper 20s are likely Monday morning as our growing season comes to and end.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school football playoff games Friday night, rain is possible over the northwest corner of the state, otherwise clouds will increase with temperatures in the 60s.

Alabama will host Chattanooga Saturday night at Bryant-Denny Stadium (6:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling from 52 at kickoff to near 40 degrees by the final whistle.

Auburn hosts Alabama A&M Saturday night at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6:30p CT kickoff)… mostly fair with temperatures falling from the low 50s at kickoff, and into the low 40s by the fourth quarter.

THANKSGIVING WEEK: After cool/dry weather Monday and Tuesday, we will bring in a chance of rain Wednesday and Wednesday night ahead of another cold front. Rain amounts with this system could exceed 1/2 inch.

gfs_ptype_slp_ky_31

At the moment it looks like the rain will end by late Wednesday night; for now Thanksgiving looks cool and dry with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

LONG RANGE: New European ensemble guidance still suggests potential for over 5 inches of rain from late November through late December…

kbhm_2016111400_meps_precip_1104

AT THE BEACH: Sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through the weekend. Highs in the 70s through Friday, falling into the 60s this weekend. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: A disturbance in the western Caribbean has a chance of becoming better organized in coming days, but steering currents are week, and it will just hang around in the same place off the Central American coast through the weekend.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Cold Front Arrives Early Saturday; Rain???

| November 14, 2016 @ 3:23 pm

DRY IS THE WORD: Today is the 57th consecutive day without measurable rain for Birmingham, and a drought emergency remains in effect for all 67 Alabama counties. No outdoor burning of any kind, and water conservation is very important.

The sky is mostly sunny with temperatures in the 68-71 degree range at most places this afternoon. The average high for November 14 (for Birmingham) is 65.

Smoke today from wildfires across TN/GA/SC/NC is mostly over Georgia, but some is over far northeast Alabama…

weatherflowchas_2016-nov-14

MID-WEEK: A weak wave aloft will bring some clouds tomorrow, and maybe even a few isolated showers, but the chance of any one spot getting wet is very small since the air is so dry. Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly sunny. Expect a high in the low 70s tomorrow and Wednesday… followed by upper 70s Thursday. In fact, a few spots could touch 80 degrees Thursday afternoon since we have no soil moisture.

FYI… the latest 80 degree high in Birmingham on record came on December 7, 1951 when the high was exactly 80 degrees.

COLD FRONT! Friday will be another dry, mild day, but a cold front will blow into Northwest Alabama late Friday night with a band of showers, and maybe even a thunderstorm. But, don’t get too excited since moisture will be pretty limited, and the main dynamic forcing will be well to the north. But, this could end Birmingham’s long dry spell.

The European global model is printing 0.20″ of rain for Birmingham, with potential for around 1/2″ for the northwest counties of the state…

sat_precip

The main window for showers will come from about 9:00 p.m. Friday through 9:00 a.m. Saturday. Unfortunately South Alabama probably won’t get a drop of rain.

THE WEEKEND: The coldest air so far this season blows in here after the showers over the weekend. It now looks like temperatures will hover in the cool 50s Saturday, and some North Alabama communities won’t get out of the 40s Sunday with a chilly north wind of 10-20 mph. The GFS is printing a low of 33 early Sunday, and 23 Monday (that isn’t a typo) for Birmingham. Sure looks like our growing season will end with freezing temperatures likely for the northern half of the state.

The sky becomes partly sunny Saturday afternoon, and Sunday will feature a good supply of sunshine.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school football playoff games Friday night, rain is possible over the northwest corner of the state, otherwise clouds will increase with temperatures in the 60s.

Alabama will host Chattanooga Saturday night at Bryant-Denny Stadium (6:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling from 58 at kickoff into the chilly 40s for the second half.

Auburn hosts Alabama A&M Saturday night at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6:30p CT kickoff)… mostly fair with temperatures falling from the mid 50s at kickoff, and into the 40s by the fourth quarter.

THANKSGIVING WEEK: For now it looks generally dry with cool days and cold nights… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

SUPERMOON: The moon this morning was the closest full moon to Earth since 1948. We won’t see another supermoon like this until 2034. The moon’s orbit around Earth is slightly elliptical so sometimes it is closer and sometimes it’s farther away. When the moon is full as it makes its closest pass to Earth it is known as a supermoon. At perigee — the point at which the moon is closest to Earth — the moon can be as much as 14 percent closer to Earth than at apogee, when the moon is farthest from our planet. The full moon appears that much larger in diameter and because it is larger shines 30 percent more moonlight onto the Earth.

So… be looking again tonight. Moonrise for Birmingham today is 5:19p CT.

AT THE BEACH: Sunny days, fair nights from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through the weekend with highs in the 70s through Saturday, dropping into the 60s Sunday and early next week. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: A tropical disturbance over the western Caribbean has come potential to develop later this week, but no impact on the Southeast U.S.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30P CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with the kindergarten students at Vestavia Hills East Elementary… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Drought Conditions Continue To Intensify

| November 14, 2016 @ 5:49 am

HISTORIC DRY SPELL ROLLS ALONG: The last measurable rain in Birmingham was on September 18 with 0.32?. The last time we had over one inch in a 24 hour period came on July 30, when the total was 1.33?. No rain has been measured so far in November.

We have gone, counting today, 57 consecutive days without measurable rain. We blew past the record of 52 dry days in a row (set in 1924) last week.

A drought emergency remains in effect for all 67 Alabama counties; no outdoor burning is allowed, and water conservation is crucial.

COLD MORNING, PLEASANT AFTERNOON: A weak short wave aloft will pass over the state today, but with no moisture, there is no chance of rain. Some Northeast Alabama communities are below freezing this morning (29 at Black Creek, 32 at Fort Payne)… but we will see a high near 70 this afternoon with a partly sunny sky.

MID-WEEK: Still dry. Mostly sunny days, fair nights tomorrow through Thursday. Expect low 70s tomorrow and Wednesday, followed by upper 70s Thursday. In fact, some spots could touch 80 degrees Thursday afternoon as the lack of soil moisture contributes to warmer afternoons.

HOPE FOR RAIN: A major storm system will move through the Northern Plains Friday, with blizzard conditions developing over the Dakotas. A trailing cold front will approach Northwest Alabama Friday night, and a band of showers will enter the state. Unfortunately, moisture will be limited, and the primary dynamic support well to the north, so this won’t be any kind of “drought buster” or big rain event, but the chance of rain looks good for the northwest counties of the state, with amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch for cities like Florence and Hamilton.

Showers will thin out as the front works south and east, amounts for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden will be under 1/4″, which won’t come close to making a dent in the drought. And, those south of I-20 won’t see enough rain to measure, if they get any at all.

The main window for showers with the front will come from 10:00 p.m. Friday through 10:00 a.m. Saturday.

REST OF THE WEEKEND: The sky becomes partly sunny Saturday afternoon with a high in the 60s, but Sunday will be windy and sharply colder behind the front; some places up in far North Alabama won’t get out of the 40s; other North Alabama communities will see a high in the low to mid 50s despite sunshine in full force. A north wind of 10-20 mph will make it feel colder. It will be the coldest air we have experienced so far this season.

A freeze is likely for most of North/Central Alabama by Monday morning.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school football playoff games Friday night, rain is possible over the northwest corner of the state, otherwise clouds will increase with temperatures in the 60s.

Alabama will host Chattanooga Saturday night at Bryant-Denny Stadium (6:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling from 62 at kickoff, through the 50s during the second half.

Auburn hosts Alabama A&M Saturday night at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6:30p CT kickoff)… mostly fair with temperatures falling into the 50s during the game.

THANKSGIVING WEEK: No sign of badly needed rain next week; the week looks cool and dry for now for Alabama. See the Weather Xtrme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

LONG RANGE: Still encouraged to see the European ensemble showing a relatively wet December, with potential for over 5 inches of rain…

kbhm_2016111000_meps_precip_1104

SUPERMOON: The moon this morning is the closest full moon to Earth since 1948. We won’t see another supermoon like this until 2034. The moon’s orbit around Earth is slightly elliptical so sometimes it is closer and sometimes it’s farther away. When the moon is full as it makes its closest pass to Earth it is known as a supermoon. At perigee — the point at which the moon is closest to Earth — the moon can be as much as 14 percent closer to Earth than at apogee, when the moon is farthest from our planet. The full moon appears that much larger in diameter and because it is larger shines 30 percent more moonlight onto the Earth.

So… be looking again tonight. Moonrise for Birmingham today is 5:19p CT. Image below was taken this morning from Arizona by Scott McCown…

gregtucson_2016-nov-13

AT THE BEACH: Sunny days, fair nights on the coast through the weekend (from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach) with highs generally in the 70s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: A disturbance in the western Caribbean has some chance of getting organized this week, but it will move northeast and won’t be an issue for the U.S.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live here.

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I have a weather program this morning at Vestavia Hills East Elementary School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Pleasant Days; Chilly Nights

| November 11, 2016 @ 3:09 pm

HIGH CLOUDS, DRY BELOW: The sub-tropical jet stream is pushing mid and high level clouds over Alabama this afternoon…

goes20152016316j39oki

Under those clouds, the air is very dry with dewpoints in the 30s in most places, and there is no rain on radar. Temperatures are mostly in the 60s.

Today is the 54th consecutive day with no measurable rain at Birmingham-Shuttlesworth Airport.

A drought emergency remains in effect for all 67 Alabama counties. Remember… NO outdoor burning… it is illegal for any person to set fire to any forest, grass, woods, wildlands or marshes; to build a campfire or bonfire; or to burn trash or other material that may cause a forest, grass or woods fire. Specifically, the regulation prohibits any prescribed burns, any campfire or bonfire, any trash or debris fires, or any other open burning.

THE WEEKEND: Still dry. Partly sunny days, fair nights. Highs in the 60s, lows in the 30s and 40s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school playoff games tonight, fair with temperatures falling from the low 60s at kickoff into the low 50s by the second half.

Alabama hosts Mississippi State tomorrow (11:00a CT kickoff); the sky will be partly sunny with temperatures rising from near 62 at kickoff, to 68 by the fourth quarter.

Auburn travels to Athens, GA to take on the Georgia Bulldogs (2:30p CT kickoff)… a perfect day for football tomorrow. About 65 degrees at kickoff, dropping back into the upper 50s by the final whistle.

NEXT WEEK: Still dry through Thursday. By next Thursday (November 17) we will have gone 60 consecutive days with no measurable rain. But, global models are in good agreement with a cold front pushing in here late Friday night (November 18) and Saturday morning (November 19)…

gfs_ptype_slp_east2_33

This certainly won’t be a drought buster, but cold fronts in November usually do offer some rain, and sometimes thunderstorms. We will have a much better look at this setup early next week as the event gets closer; for now it doesn’t look like a severe weather threat. No drought buster, but we will take anything we can get. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

LONG RANGE: Data from the European ensemble continues to suggest over five inches of rain for Birmingham from November 20-December 25…

kbhm_2016111000_meps_precip_1104

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through next week with highs in the 70s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: Tropical storm formation is not expected across the Atlantic basin through next week.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here Monday mornng by 7:00 a.m…. Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!