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Watching Action To The Northwest

| 1:11 pm November 25, 2010 | Comments (0)

SPC has placed parts of the Mid-South, including the Memphis area, under a slight risk of severe weather for the next 6 hours…

This is from the NWS Memphis chat session…

MEG continues Tornado Warning for Dyer, Lake [TN] and Pemiscot [MO] till 1:45 PM CST …AT 105 PM CST…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR AYERS…OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF CARUTHERSVILLE…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

This tornado will pass north of Dyersburg, TN, which is well to the north of Memphis.

We will keep an eye on developments this afternoon… but it will be late tonight, probably after midnight, when this line of showers and storms arrives in Alabama, and they should be weaker by then and major severe weather issues are not expected.

Still looks like a good chance the rain will be over in Tuscaloosa by 1:30 tomorrow, when the Iron Bowl kicks off. And, tomorrow will be much colder with temperatures in the 40s all day.

Northeast Alabama Thanksgiving Morning

| 9:12 am November 25, 2010 | Comments (0)

Thanks to ABC 33/40 Skywatcher Vic Bell, who lives on Lookout Mountain near Collinsville, for this image… he writes:

“Oh, what a beautiful morning! The sunshine this morning was especially nice
after being socked in with clouds all day yesterday, Happy Thanksgiving!”

Oh, what a beautiful morning!

Big Change To Cold Tomorrow

| 8:49 am November 25, 2010 | Comments (1)

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING: One thing I am thankful for is that we are not expecting a major severe weather threat tonight. Considering we are going from 75 degrees today to a high close to 45 tomorrow, we are very fortunate. We all know that late November has produced a number of violent tornado outbreaks in our state as we are in the core of the fall severe weather season now.

If we do reach 75 degrees today, that is within three degrees of the record high of 78 today (recorded in 1921), and 14 degrees above average. You might see a shower or two popping up on radar, but the day will be generally dry with intervals of sun and a gusty south breeze.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Looks like the main window for rain and a few storms will be from about 2:00 a.m. until 2:00 p.m. tomorrow. Rain amounts should be 1/2 inch or less… the NAM is printing 0.26″, while the GFS is at 0.30″.

The change to cold weather is the big story tomorrow. If you wake up early, and if you are east and south of Birmingham, you might find the temperature close to 60. But, everybody will fall down into the mid 40s by mid-morning, and we will hang around that level all day. Factor in morning rain and a stiff north wind, and it will feel colder. Basically a raw November Day for the shoppers and football fans.

IRON BOWL: Still a good chance the rain will be over by 1:30 when the game kicks off in Tuscaloosa, but I can’t completely promise that. Rain is likely during the morning in Tuscaloosa, ending shortly before the game begins, most likely. The kickoff temperature will be around 47 degrees, falling to near 43 by the final whistle. That will be quite a change from the 70s we have enjoyed in recent days.

REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND: Expect lots of sunshine Saturday and Sunday with dry air in place. We begin the day Saturday with a low in the 20s, but then we rise into the upper 50s Saturday, followed by a high in the low 60s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Our next major rain event is coming up Monday night and Tuesday of next week, when a few strong storms will be possible, and rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely. The 06Z GFS shows much colder air blowing in here Wednesday.

LONG RANGE: Sure looks cold around here in the December 5-10 time frame… see the Weather Xtreme video for details.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

James Spann Jason Simpson Ashley Brand
J. B. Elliott Bill Murray Brian Peters
Dr. Tim Coleman WeatherBrains Podcast E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

I hope you and your family have a blessed and peaceful Thanksgiving. We are working on a holiday schedule, so the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted tomorrow morning. Of course, we will have running updates here as the main band of showers and storms gets closer…

Warm Through Thanksgiving Day, Then Cold

| 6:16 am November 22, 2010 | Comments (9)

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

This is a week with lots of interesting weather possibilities, and timing the rain chances and cold air shot takes a little time to explain… one of those forecasts where you just can’t look at some little sun/rain icons on your phone with highs and lows. That is why I really appreciate this forum to explain the forecast…

TODAY/TOMORROW: Both the GFS and the NAM are printing a high of 74 today… that is 11 degrees above the average high of 63, and within 7 degrees of the record high of 81 set in 1900. We expect a mix of sun and clouds, and most communities will be dry through tonight despite increasing moisture levels.

To the north, the weather is brutally cold. Glascow, Montana this hour is reporting 9 degrees below zero, which is severely cold for them for November. The leading edge of this cold airmass bisects the nation, and is providing some amazing thermal contrasts. A good example is in Kansas… at 5:00 a.m. temperatures range from 27 at Goodland to 68 at Coffeyville on the east side of the front… a 41 degree swing!

This front will approach North Alabama tomorrow night, and while we expect only a small risk of a shower during the day tomorrow, showers and possibly a thunderstorm are more likely tomorrow night, mostly in the 6:00 to 12:00 midnight time frame. This could bring about 1/2 inch of rain to the northern half of the state.

WEDNESDAY: The front will slip down to near Montgomery early Wednesday, before moving north as a warm front. So, Wednesday morning should be colder, with lows in the 40s. But, with a southerly flow returning later in the day, the high Wednesday should be in the low 70s as the mild afternoons continue. Wednesday will be mostly dry with only a slight risk of a shower.

TRAVEL WEATHER: Wednesday is the busiest travel day of the year, according to many… take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for a good look at national weather. Bottom line is that rain is likely for places like Dallas, Shreveport, Little Rock, Kansas, City, St. Louis, and Des Moines along the front. Back in the cold air, snow is likely across the High Plains, west into Wyoming and Colorado. Here in Alabama the weather should be warm and relatively dry with a high in the 70s… the mild weather is the story for the adjacent states as well.

THANKSGIVING DAY: The Polar front will only slowly move in our direction… so it now looks like Thursday will stay warm with a high in the 70s. I guess a shower could pop up somewhere, but the day will be generally dry. The main band of showers and storms along the front will finally arrive late Thursday night, most likely after midnight. There might be a strong storm involved, but at this point the chance of a major severe weather problem looks small. We, of course, will keep an eye on the situation since this is late November, during the core of our fall severe weather season.

IRON BOWL FRIDAY: Unfortunately, the weather looks raw, cold, and wet. We won’t get out of the 40s with a chilly north wind, and while the GFS suggests the rain will be over by kickoff, the Canadian and the Euro keep the rain going through the afternoon hours, and I tend to side with that slower solution for now. This is the hardest part of this forecast is clearly determining the end of the rain Friday, so keep an eye on the forecast in coming days.

For the game (1:30 p.m. kickoff in Tuscaloosa) we project a kickoff temperature of around 47 degrees, falling to near 40 by the end of the game with a cloudy sky and a brisk north wind. Some rain is possible, especially during the first half.

THE WEEKEND: We will be well down in the 20s early Saturday, but a pretty decent warm-up is likely for Saturday and Sunday. Look for a sunny sky both days with a high in the low 50s Saturday, followed by a high close to 60 Sunday. Then, another round of showers and storms seems likely early next week on Monday.

VOODOO LAND: The GFS shows a benign pattern for early December, but we have seen everything from blizzards to thunderstorms showing up on recent runs. No confidence in anything specific out here.

WEATHERBRAINS MORNING SPECIAL: We have a Monday morning special this week… we will begin at 9:30 a.m. CST… we will post the uStream here on the blog right before we start; the show will be on iTunes and the web later today.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

James Spann Jason Simpson Ashley Brand
J. B. Elliott Bill Murray Brian Peters
Dr. Tim Coleman WeatherBrains Podcast E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Dry Through Tomorrow

| 6:06 am November 12, 2010 | Comments (4)

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

STORM ALERT XTREME: Our annual storm spotter training is tomorrow at the BJCC, as part of the Alabama International Auto show. We begin at 9:00, and you will be done at 2:00. And, as a “thank you”, you will get free admission into the car show. There is no cost, and no need to register, just show up. Brian Peters will be the trainer, and we ask all existing and potential Skywatchers to attend. The doors will open at 8:00… so get there early for a good seat. Looks like we will have another big crowd this year.

ANOTHER FINE FALL DAY: Don’t look for much change in our weather today. A good supply of sunshine with a big warm-up; most places will wind up in the mid 70s this afternoon. Doesn’t get much better in November.

OUR WEEKEND: We stay dry tomorrow with a partly sunny and a high in the low 70s. We will maintain some risk of widely scattered showers after midnight tomorrow night and Sunday, but many places will stay dry. The best chance of a shower Sunday will be over the northwest third of the state.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For tonight’s high school playoff football games, we project a clear sky, with temperatures falling from near 62 at kickoff into the low 50s by the fourth quarter. Doesn’t get much better.

For tomorrow’s Auburn/Georgia game at Jordan-Hare Stadium (2:30 p.m. CST kickoff)… the sky will be partly sunny with a temperature in the upper 60s at kickoff, falling into the upper 50s by the final whistle. Alabama will host Mississippi State tomorrow night in Tuscaloosa (6:15 p.m. kickoff)… clouds will increase during the game, but there will be only a small risk of a shower. Temperatures will fall from the low 60s at kickoff into the mid 50s by the fourth quarter.

GOOD SOAKING MONDAY: Sure looks like much of Alabama will see 1 to 2 inches of rain Monday and Monday night as the main upper trough moves through. The air should be cool and stable with temperatures in the 50s much of the day, and the surface low will pass through South Alabama, so we don’t expect any severe weather, and really not much thunder. Just a good ole fashioned rain, which is just what we need. The Birmingham rain deficit for the year is up to 4.23″. We note the deficiency at Anniston is 7.42″, and Tuscaloosa needs 10.23″ to get back to average levels for the year.

The rain will end early Tuesday, followed by a clearing sky Tuesday afternoon. The rest of the week will be cool and dry. Looks like highs drop into the 50s Thursday, with a freeze likely by Friday morning of next week.

THANKSGIVING WEEK: We will be watching a buildup of bitterly cold air over Canada… the GFS suggests a 1050 mb high will form, and that very cold air will slip down into the northern third of the U.S. for Thanksgiving. Just how much of that cold air reaches the Deep South is up for debate. Upper air winds really remain zonal, and without a high amplitude flow, that should keep the really cold stuff north of here. However, the weight of that cold air alone will often push it farther south than you might think. It will be a very interesting pattern to watch.. to see if some shallow cold air can drop in here. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for more details.

TROPICS: All is quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week. More than likely, for the Gulf of Mexico, we can stick a fork in the 2010 hurricane season. Anything that forms this late usually is down in the deep tropics well to the south.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

James Spann Jason Simpson Ashley Brand
J. B. Elliott Bill Murray Brian Peters
Dr. Tim Coleman WeatherBrains Podcast E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

I have a weather program this morning at Chelsea Park Elementary School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!