THIS AFTERNOON: Cirrus clouds in the western sky are a harbinger of the changes that are coming. Our weakening cold front is across the Mississippi River this afternoon. Showers extended from west of Nashville down to near Greenwood in the Mississippi Delta. Those showers are moving east and will reach northwestern Alabama counties like Lamar, Marion and Franklin in the hours between mid-afternoon and sunset. But they are light. A few showers could edge down into the Tuscaloosa and Birmingham areas late this evening, but I think the Alabama game will be rain free. The Auburn game is definitely occurring in dry, perfect conditions.
RAIN AHEAD: The cold front is the advance guard of an advancing upper trough that will push through the area early in the week. The front will continue to give us shower chances through tomorrow morning as it settles into central Alabama. Tomorrow night, the upper trough will dig south and eastward and a surface low will form along the Texas coast and move northeast. As it moves northeast, moisture will increase rapidly over Alabama and rain will break out late Sunday night. Rain will continue through much of the day on Monday. The morning run of the GFS model is indicating that the surface low will move more slowly than earlier anticipated, and this could mean the rain will persist into Tuesday morning. We can only hope…
RAINFALL AMOUNTS: Projections of rainfall from this system have been nudged up a but, averaging one and one half inches in the I-59 corridor, tapering to one half to three quarters of an inch in the northwestern corner of the state. Heading southeastward, rainfall amounts will increase, averaging two to two and one half inches across Central sections of the state.
DRIER AND COOLER FOR REST OF THE WEEK: Drier and cooler air will give us seasonable conditions for the rest of the week with sunshine and highs in the upper 50s to near 60 and lows in the upper 30s to near 40. A reinforcing shot of cold air will give us lows below freezing by Friday and into the weekend.