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Gustav Heads For The Gulf Coast

| August 31, 2008 @ 6:54 am | 25 Replies

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As always, I encourage you to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics associated with this discussion…

A hurricane warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast from Cameron, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, near Orange Beach, Alabama. This includes all of the Alabama Gulf Coast. Looks like our initial idea of the highest probability of landfall between Morgan City and Gulf Shores has been on the money.

Gustav has weakened since the passage over the western tip of Cuba, but the system is moving over the Loop Current this morning and it should grow stronger. Top sustained winds are now at 120 mph.

HOW STRONG AT LANDFALL? Very difficult question. We note a politician has declared this the “mother of all storms” and the “storm of the century”… that in itself is unnecessary hyperbole; nobody, including the National Hurricane Center or any politician knows how strong this will be at the time of landfall. And, there have been many other hurricanes much stronger than this across the Atlantic basin. I would rather not focus on hype, but facts. But, a thumbs up to the New Orleans evacuation order. There was really no other choice.

We note there drier air is over the western Gulf of Mexico; we wonder if that will become involved in the circulation of Gustav and result in some weakening. And, upper air winds will be a little more harsh as it approaches the coast. Could this weaken into a category one or two at the time of landfall? Absolutely. But, these big systems don’t wind down quickly, and it should be a category three at the time of landfall. I would say being a four or five is unlikely, but again, not impossible.

WHEN? The GFS shows Gustav making landfall tomorrow afternoon… the best blend of model data and current motion suggests landfall on the Louisiana coast will be sometime between 12:00 Noon and 6:00 p.m. tomorrow.

IMPACT ON THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI COAST: Coastal flooding and tornadoes are possible tomorrow as the system approaches the coast. Here is the latest from the NWS Mobile and their local action statement this morning:

STARTING MONDAY MORNING…THE MAXIMUM TOTAL STORM TIDE COULD REACH 6 TO 8 FEET
ALONG SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY FROM CEDAR POINT WESTWARD ACROSS PORTERSVILLE BAY…CODEN AND BAYOU LA BATRE. ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF MOBILE BAY…TOTAL STORM TIDE FROM THE FOWL RIVER AREA NORTH ACROSS THE THEODORE INDUSTRIAL CANAL…DOG RIVER…TO THE ALABAMA STATE DOCKS AND PORT OF MOBILE COULD REACH 4 TO 6 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF MOBILE BAY AND SOUTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY…TOTAL STORM TIDE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 4 TO 6 FEET.

Evacuations are recommended basically for everyone from the Fort Morgan peninsula of Alabama to Dauphin Island and the Mississippi coast. Scroll down for specific information about the evacuation process on the Alabama coast.

IMPACT ON NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA: We note the 00Z QPF shows not a drop of rain over North Alabama for the next five days. I am not sure that is correct; I do think we have a few showers tomorrow and Tuesday, and we will have breezy conditions (winds of 15 to 25 mph), but no doubt the main flooding and tornado threat will be west of Alabama, over Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas. I guess there could be an isolated tornado near the Alabama/Mississippi border, but I really don’t think we will have too many problems around here. This, of course, is based on our current landfall thinking.

LATER IN THE WEEK: The GFS stalls Gustav over West Louisiana; this could set up a very dangerous flooding threat for Louisiana, the southern part of Arkansas, and the western half of Mississippi this week. If the stall happens, some spots could see 15 to 20 inches of rain in the corridor from Jackson to Shreveport. Here in Alabama, our weather should remain relatively benign during the latter half of the week.

HANNA: Looks more and more like Hanna will not be a Gulf of Mexico storm. Systems in that position rarely get into the Gulf; the official NHC track keeps Hanna east of Florida; the 00Z GFS moves it northeast, just off the Atlantic coast, then to a point not too far from Long Island this Saturday. Hanna is having a tough time now due to shear, but it should become a hurricane later in the week, and our friends along the Atlantic coast will need to watch this closely.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: We have a series of waves with potential for development eastward across the Atlantic to the coast of Africa; those will be watched closely. Some of them will recurve harmlessly into the open Atlantic, others could be a threat to the U.S. in coming weeks.

PROGRAMMING NOTES: We will do a live special on the live stream on abc3340.com (and our digital “dot two” channels”) tonight at 7:30… we hope you can join us then. We plan another one for tomorrow night at 7:00. We will be checking in with our crew down on the coast, including meteorologist Brian Peters of our weather staff.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We hope to record a few episode featuring Brian Peters down on the coast tomorrow morning. We will let you know when that show is posted (if we can get it done).

TWITTER: Don’t forget, you can follow our news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. And, my personal Twitter feed is here if you want to keep up with my adventures in life. Twitter is a short messaging service you can receive via the web, cell phone, or IM.

We will have frequent running updates on the blog through the day, so have us in your RSS reader, or check in often. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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