Drought Worsens In Alabama; Matthew Nearing Florida

DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK: News is not good for a parched state of Alabama; we see no significant chance of rain for at least the next 10 days. A “stage two” drought advisory is now in effect for Birmingham Water Works customers, and the Alabama Forestry Commission has issued a Fire Danger Warning for 46 Alabama counties over the north and central part of the state.

Today will be the 18th consecutive day with no measurable rain for Birmingham. Conserve water, and be extremely careful with any outdoor burning.

We project sunny warm days and fair pleasant nights through early next week, highs will hold in the mid 80s through Saturday, then dropping into the 77-82 degree range Sunday and early next week. Many spots will drop into the 40s early Sunday and Monday morning as Matthew pulls down slightly cooler air.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Another delightful night for high school football games tomorrow night… clear with temperatures falling through the 60s.

Auburn will play at Mississippi State Saturday (11:00a CT kickoff)… the sky will be sunny with temperatures rising from 78 at kickoff, to near 83 degrees by the fourth quarter.

Alabama is also on the road; they play Arkansas at Fayetteville Saturday evening (6:00p CT kickoff)… a perfect evening for football with temperatures falling from 67 at kickoff into the 50s by the fourth quarter. The sky will be clear.

BARBER VINTAGE MOTORCYCLE FESTIVAL: This event runs from tomorrow through Sunday at the Barber Motorsports Park. Highs in the mid 80s tomorrow and Saturday, cooling into the mid to upper 70s Sunday. Sunny days, clear nights. Get ticket information right here.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Sunny days, fair nights on the coast from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through early next week; no impact at all from Matthew. Highs in the 80s… See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

NICOLE: Tropical Storm Nicole will just hang around in the zone from Puerto Rico and Bermuda with no impact to land over the next five days.

MATTHEW: This dangerous hurricane has been battering the Bahamas; it is packing sustained winds of 125 mph, and is moving northwest. Next in line is the Atlantic coast of Florida, where hurricane warnings remain in effect.

Forecasting impact with a hurricane moving parallel to the coast is much more challenging that one moving into the coast at a perpendicular angle. A small deviation to the right or left will make a huge difference in impact, but in this case you have to prepare for a worst case scenario.

We note that the eye is showing up nicely already on the Miami NWS radar…

STORM SURGE: NHC’s surge numbers have increased on the Florida/Georgia coast. Now a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet is expected from near Vero Beach up to Savannah.

WIND: Winds will gust to well over 100 mph on the immediate coast from West Palm Beach north to Daytona Beach late tonight and tomorrow. This will bring down trees and power lines, and overturn mobile homes. Structural damage is likely. This is clearly a life threatening storm for the immediate coast.

Highest danger is on the coast for cities like West Palm Beach, Jupiter, Melbourne, Titusville/Cocoa Beach, Daytona Beach.

RAIN: Heaviest amounts will be offshore, but on the immediate coast amounts could exceed 6 inches in places, and flooding is likely.

TO THE WEST: The impact will drop off on the “good” west side of the circulation center as you go farther inland. Orlando will deal with winds of 30-50 mph tomorrow (higher gusts possible), with lots of rain, but probably not enough rain for flooding. Disney World officials have advised those at the Fort Wilderness campground that they must leave by 11 a.m. ET today; camping is not a good idea in these conditions. There has been no word from Disney about whether its theme parks will close tomorrow. But the good news is that the weekend will be beautiful as the hurricane moves away. Tampa will see generally under 1/2 inch of rain, with winds under 30 mph.

LOOP DE LOOP: Models are now in good agreement about the loop scenario off the coast; Matthew could make a second landfall in South Florida early next week as a much weaker tropical storm, then emerging into the Gulf of Mexico. It remains to be seen if strengthening is possible after that happens; there is little to no skill in forecasting placement and intensity of a tropical cyclone beyond five days.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I have a weather program this morning at Ashland Elementary School… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: ANC, dry

Category: Alabama's Weather