Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

An Update To Our Weather Situation at 8:00 PM CST

| December 28, 2016 @ 8:03 pm

Currently across the Central Alabama area, only one small shower is being detected on radar down in western Barbour County just west of the cities of Clio and Louisville. Everyone else in the area is dry at the moment.

The latest look at the situation, a line of showers and thunderstorms are stretching from northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio, back to the south through east-central Kentucky, back to the southwest through central Tennessee, and into the northeast corner of Mississippi. The part of the line in Mississippi is now entering the northwest corner of Alabama at this time. There are also some heavy showers in the northern parts of Madison and Jackson counties. There is currently no lightning with these showers at this time, but previously had a Severe Thunderstorm Warning on it when they were over the northeastern parts of Lauderdale County. There are no watches or warnings in effect at this time, and we are crossing our fingers that it will stay this way.

The Storm Prediction Center still has almost the entire northern half of Alabama in a “Marginal Risk” for severe storms throughout the remainder of the night and into the morning on Thursday. Damaging straight-line winds and small hail, and a brief spin-up tornado will be the main risks with tonight’s event.

Latest HRRR Data: CAPE (left) & Helicity 0-3km (right) at 1:00 AM.

Surface instability (CAPE) levels do not ramp up in the Central Alabama area until around midnight to 1:00 AM, and even then the highest values are only in the 600 J/kg range. Shear values are showing helicites as high as 450 m2/s2 around the 1:00 AM in parts of Central Alabama. Dewpoints are expected to be in the low to mid 60s at that same time.

So the ingredients will be there for marginal strong to severe storms, the question is “Will there be any development?” Both the latest HRRR and NAM-4k model runs are showing a healthy line of thunderstorms moving through Central Alabama during the overnight and early morning hours. Timing will be from 10PM-3AM for the northwestern parts (east of a line from Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Gadsden), midnight-5AM for the central and eastern parts (Anniston, Alexander City, Clanton, Selma, and Demopolis), and from 4AM-8AM for the southeastern parts (Montgomery, Troy, Eufaula, and Auburn).

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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