Model Madness

| November 26, 2008 @ 1:02 pm | 10 Replies

As you can see from Brian’s post below, the weather world is buzzing about the 12Z run of the GFS. I mentioned a few times this week the pattern with this is a tricky one, dealing with a Pacific storm system moving into the Southwest U.S…. ultimately impacting our part of the country.

You have heard me say a million times here that we don’t change a forecast based on one model run, and that is sure the case this time. But, the fact that the NAM is in agreement with the GFS (12Z runs) means that this has at least a little credibility. Here is the GFS valid for 12:00 noon Saturday:

And, the NAM valid at 12:00 noon Saturday:

And, of course, just for fun, the GFS gives a totally different solution for Sunday morning with hint of snow flakes flying. This is the GFS valid at 6:00 a.m. Sunday:

This is what makes this business so interesting. Another post when the 18Z runs are in a little later this afternoon…

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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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