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Shower Chances Rise/Temps Come Down

| July 22, 2017 @ 6:39 am

It is expected to be another rather warm day across Central Alabama as temperatures climb into the middle 90s for most locations. With humidity levels remaining high, the NWS has a heat advisory posted for today from 11 am to 9 pm with the heat index expected to top out in the 103 to 106 range. The upper ridge responsible for bringing us the high heat is also expected to wane over the next couple of days.

Severe weather for the next several days will be confined to the northern portion of the US from eastern Minnesota to the Mid-Atlantic states. The primary severe weather threat comes in the form of large hail and damaging wind.

A strong short wave trough situated just north of Minnesota this morning will dig into the eastern US on Sunday and Monday pushing the upper ridge back toward the Four Corners area of the Southwest US. Precipitable water values for the Southeast US will oscillate up and down over the next week with an uptick on Monday and Tuesday. This together with the approach of a weak frontal boundary should combine to provide better chances of showers and thunderstorms. The main timing will still come with the heating of the afternoon. With added clouds and increased coverage of storms along with the height falls due to the increased troughing over the eastern US, our temperatures should fall a bit with highs mainly in the range of 88 to 92.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, the upper ridge to the west noses back into the Middle Mississippi River Valley, so our temperatures will likely rise with highs in the lower and middle 90s. While precipitable water values come down a tad, they don’t really fall enough to remove all mention of showers, so we’ll keep the idea of scattered afternoon showers and storms.

A trough moving across the eastern Great Lakes and into New England on Friday will drag another weak frontal zone into the Southeast US. This looks like we will see another uptick in the presence and coverage of showers and thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday as precipitable water values rise again. Once again the presence of clouds and showers should keep the afternoon highs in the range of 89 to 93.

Rainfall over the next five days will be hit or miss with showers and thunderstorms, but places that do see rain should see amounts between about 1 and 2 inches with the better chances for rain coming on Monday and Tuesday.

All remains quiet across the Atlantic basin where tropical storm formation is not expected through next week. The eastern North Pacific, on the other hand, was quite busy with three areas of concern including Tropical Storm Greg.

The weather at the beach is fairly typical for July with daily chances for a passing shower along with highs in the upper 80s. Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page. The beach forecast is partially underwritten by the support of Brett/Robinson Vacation Rentals in Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. Click here to see Brett/Robinson’s Own Your Summer specials now!

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS remained pretty consistent with the idea of keeping a trough in the eastern US for the end of July and early August. This pattern signals warm weather but keeps the excessive heat over the western US.

I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here by 7 am or so on Sunday. You can always check back often for updates on Alabama’s weather. Stay cool in the heat today and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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