Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

Very Active Weather Back To Our West

| April 6, 2018 @ 5:42 pm

At 5:06 PM, we are watching a few severe-warned cells in eastern Mississippi that has the potential of holding together and moving into southern Pickens, Sumter, and Greene counties in western Alabama. The good news is that the air is more stable over Alabama at this point, with dewpoints in the upper 40s in Demopolis and in the upper 50s in Meridian, Mississippi. So, there is a good chance that those cells will lose their severe characteristics and weaken considerably while crossing over the state line. Those two cells should move into the state within the next 30-60 minutes.

There are several more severe thunderstorm warnings in effect for a few counties in southwestern Mississippi and back into northern Louisiana and back into northeastern Texas. There is a tornado warning in effect until 5:30 PM for Union Parrish in northern Louisiana for a radar-indicated rotation. All of these storms are moving to the east at roughly 40 MPH.

HRRR surface-based instability values (CAPE) valid at 8:00 PM tonight.

Atmospheric conditions are not all that favorable for severe storms in the southern half of Central Alabama, as surface-based instability values are showing less than 500 J/kg on the latest HRRR model run, mainly over the extreme southwestern parts of Central Alabama in southern Pickens, extreme western Greene, and much of Sumter counties through the remainder of the evening and just after midnight. During that same time frame, dewpoints will be running in the mid to upper 50s across much of the southern half of Central Alabama, with a tongue of moist air nudging into the southwestern parts of the area and dewpoints rising into the lower 60s.

Significant Tornado Parameter valid at 8:00 PM tonight.

Significant tornado parameter values are below 1.0 in the same region, while helicity values will be ranging from 250-350 m2s2, which means there is the potential for spinning updrafts and therefore there will be a threat for a brief spin-up tornado or two. Tonight’s main threat will be from isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 MPH, and will mainly be south of a line from Eutaw to Prattville to Eufaula. You may have a strong storm or two above that line, but the main risk for stronger to severe storms will be south of that.

Main window for stronger to severe storms will be from 6:30 PM to 4:00 AM for the southwestern quarter of Central Alabama, and from 3:00 AM to 9:00 AM for the southeastern quarter. No severe weather is expected for Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, and points north. We’ll keep you updated throughout the night.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

Comments are closed.