Non-Severe Storms Over Northwest Alabama/Northeast Mississippi Will Hold Together For a Couple of Hours

Storms over Northwest Alabama and Northeast Mississippi have gotten a rejuvenating shot from a compact but strengthening upper trough just to our northwest.

They are not severe and are not expected to become severe this evening. But they will have gusty winds and lightning.

The upper trough extends along an axis from St. Louis to Muscle Shoals. It has taken on a stronger orientation tonight, becoming “negatively-tilted” which imparts more energy.

In addition, the trough has a pocket of colder air aloft that helps to trigger and maintain storms. Winds have strengthened up around 18,000 feet as well, providing increased bulk shear that helps the storms stay organized.

Instability values are between 500-1,000 joules/kg ahead of the storms, but those instability values should continue to diminish as we go through the evening and the storms should weaken. But the dynamics of the trough could help to keep them going for a little while.

RADAR CHECK AT 7:45 PM
Storms are now along the Marion/Winston County line between Bear Creek and Haleyville. These storms are moving southeast toward Double Springs, Arley, Lynn, and Nauvoo. If they hold together, they will move toward Dodge City, Bremen, and The Colony.

Over Northeast Mississippi, storms are approaching West Point, Columbus, and Caledonia. These storms will affect much of the southern half of Lamar County into northern Pickens County over the next hour.

Expect brief heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds as the storms push southeastward.

HRRR MODEL
The HRRR model has now latched onto the Northwest Alabama activity as a feature and does bring it southeastward all the way to the Birmingham area by 10 p.m., although weakening it just a few showers.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS