Scattered Showers In Parts Of The Area At Midday, Mostly Sunny Skies Elsewhere

| May 16, 2018 @ 12:36 pm

RADAR CHECK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT 12:25 PM

Much of the shower and thunderstorm activity has stayed mostly over in Georgia and down in Florida throughout much of the morning hours, but some heavy rains have affected parts of Central Alabama, especially around the Auburn and Opelika area. At this point, much of the scattered shower activity is located in the eastern parts of the area, especially in the southeast. A few showers are over the western parts of the area, but these have been in the dissipating stage over the past few radar scans.

We have a wide range of temperatures at this point, with lower 70s in the southeast where there have been showers throughout the morning, to the upper 80s in the southwestern parts of the area where there have been mainly dry and mostly sunny conditions.

If I were to guess where shower and thunderstorm develop would take place this afternoon, it would be in the northeastern quarter of the state (east of I-65 and north of I-20). At this point, that is where the higher instability levels reside along with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Temperatures in that part of the area are in the lower 80s, very close to the convective temperature (the next paragraph explains that term).

WEATHER FOR THE REST OF YOUR WEDNESDAY
Today’s convective temperature (the temperature that the surface has to reach before cloud formation without mechanical lift can take place) for much of Central Alabama is around 83 degrees. Precipitable water values will be in the 1.60″ to 2.00″ range and surface instability values will be reaching the 2100-2400 J/kg range by early afternoon. With this being the case, there will be a good chance of shower and thunderstorm development throughout Central Alabama from 1:00 PM through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening hours, with much of the activity diminishing somewhat after 10:00 PM. A few showers may linger through the overnight hours, but activity will be well less than what we see during the hottest parts of the day.Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to the upper 80s from southeast to northwest, while overnight lows drop to the mid to upper 60s.

With this type of weather pattern over Central Alabama, it is much like what we see in summertime… showers and storms will be random where they pop up and move, meaning there is no way of knowing exactly where these will take place, or how long they will last at any one location. Whoever develops that algorithm successfully, they will become a very rich person quickly.

Some of the storms today could be quite strong, with one or two pulsing up to severe criteria. Gusty winds up to 60 MPH and 1″ diameter hail could be possible with any storm that does become severe, but most should stay below that. One thing that you will have to worry about is the dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. Some thunderstorms could put down copious amounts of rainfall, as we saw with the storm over south-central Jefferson County on Tuesday. Radar estimates had totals above 4.00″ in the Midfield and Fairfield areas. Flash flooding could be a possibility, especially if a thunderstorm lingers or backbuilds over the same location for a while.

THE REGIONS TRADITION AT GREYSTONE
The Regions Tradition is ongoing from now through May 20th at the beautiful Greystone Golf & Country Club! Make plans to attend one of the majors of the PGA Champions Tour! You can see legendary golfers Bernhard Langer, John Daly, Vijay Singh, and more tee it off with Nick Saban, Gus Malzahn, Bo Jackson, and other celebrities in the NCR Pro-AM. Juniors 18 & under are admitted free with a ticketed adult, and five-day grounds tickets are $80. Single day grounds tickets are $20. GET YOUR TICKETS HERE!!!

THE SEC BASEBALL TOURNAMENT AT THE HOOVER MET
The 2018 SEC Baseball Tournament takes place on May 22-27 at the Hoover Met. Don’t miss some of the best baseball in the country as the top-12 teams will battle it out in Hoover on the road to Omaha. Join us for the indoor FanFest which is free to the public, open each day of the tournament and fun for all ages. Single-session tickets are $18 each for adults and $9 each for kids 3-12. Bleacher seats are first-come, first-served in the General Admission sections. GET YOUR TICKETS HERE!!!

ON THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY
1874 – The Mill Creek disaster occurred west of Northhampton MA. Dam slippage resulted in a flash flood which claimed 143 lives, and caused a million dollars property damage.

BEACH FORECAST CENTER
Don’t you wish you were there, already? Soaking up the rays and wiggling your toes in the sand? Get the latest weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches from Fort Morgan to Panama City on our Beach Forecast Center page. There, you can select the forecast of the region that you are interested in.

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Scott Martin is a meteorologist, graphic artist, musician, husband, and a father. Scott is a member of the National Weather Association and the Central Alabama Chapter of the National Weather Association. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides accurate forecasts for many racing series across the USA.

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