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Latest Tropical Outlook; Aircraft To Investigate Low Friday Afternoon

| May 24, 2018 @ 8:49 pm

What Is The Latest On The Tropical Situation
Much of the Gulf Coast will be affected by an approaching tropical system coming up late on this Memorial Day weekend. The latest update from the National Hurricane Center shows that there is a 70% chance of a tropical/subtropical depression forming within the next 48 hours, and a 90% chance of one forming within the next 5 days. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft has already been scheduled to fly through the disturbance on Friday afternoon.

The center of the disturbance is still slowly drifting northward over the eastern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula with much of the convective activity located on the eastern side of the center.

How Will This Affect Central Alabama’s Weather
As far as weather is concerned for Central Alabama for this weekend and into next week, there won’t be much change at all in the forecast from now through late Sunday. We’ll continue to have warm and muggy days with scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Coverage in showers and thunderstorms should increase on Monday and persist through Wednesday as the system moves northward onshore and well inland. Rainfall could be heavy at times and flooding is a possibility as totals could top 3-5 inches.

How Will This Affect The Weather On The Gulf Coast
The weather for this weekend will not be all that bad along the coast with about 2-4 hours of sun each day with the chance of scattered showers and storms. Once we get to Sunday and Monday, coverage in rain and thunderstorms will increase and the sun will be very limited as the tropical low approaches from the south.

No doubt there will be red flag conditions from Fort Morgan over to Panama City starting at some point this weekend as the tropical low continues to make its way northward to an eventual landfall sometime on Monday or Tuesday. If there is a red flag flying at the beach you are at, stay out of the water. Rip currents are very dangerous and can be deadly. No need to take a risk and become a statistic.

Even though the tropical low is not expected to become a hurricane, a low end tropical storm or a depression can create life threatening problems with flooding. NWS Mobile is projecting 6-12 inches of rain for the area from Saturday through Tuesday, with the potential of localized amounts being even higher.

NWS Mobile has already placed Mobile and Baldwin counties along with Escambia, Okaloosa, and Santa Rosa counties in Florida under a Flash Flood Watch. That goes along with a High Surf Advisory and a Coastal Flood Watch for the area. According to the strength and location of landfall, we may have a small tornado threat to the east and northeast of the center, but we stress that the main threat will be from heavy rains and possible flooding.

Here Is What The Models Are Showing At This Point

The latest run of the GFS model shows a tropical depression or weak tropical storm making its way slowly across the Gulf of Mexico throughout the weekend and coming onshore between Destin and Port St. Joe late Sunday evening and eventually up into south Alabama on Monday morning. After that, the center of the low will weaken as it moves northwest into northeastern Mississippi by Tuesday evening before dissipating that evening.

The latest run of the European model show a possible tropical storm at 986mb coming onshore late on Monday evening into the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday between Pascagoula and Gulf Shores. It will linger around southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi for a good while before moving northward close to the state line. It will reach the west-central parts of Alabama and the east-central parts of Mississippi by midnight on Wednesday before getting caught up in the ridging and pulled off to the northeast and out of north Alabama by late Wednesday evening.

The Canadian model shows a weak tropical storm making landfall on the southeastern Louisiana coastline early on Tuesday morning somewhere between Grand Isle and Slidell and make its way northward through west-central Mississippi through Thursday morning before getting pulled northeastward by the ridge on Thursday afternoon.

Here is the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is poorly organized due to strong upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm is likely to form during the weekend over the eastern or central Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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