Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

A Complete Look at a Strengthening Alberto and Its Coastal Impacts

| May 27, 2018 @ 10:05 am

All eyes continue to be on Alberto in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The system is getting better organized and is expected to make the transition from subtropical to tropical storm over the next 24 hours before making landfall between Destin and Panama City on Monday afternoon or evening. The forecast track has shifted a bit east this morning and the intensity forecast has been reduced a bit since Alberto is expected to make landfall a little sooner than earlier expected. Alberto will affect coastal areas as well as inland areas of Alabama on its forecast track, so let’s get into the details.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…27.1N 84.4W
ABOUT 130 MI WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 185 MI SSE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.36 INCHES

Alberto is showing signs of strengthening and becoming better organized this morning. The central pressure according to the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters was down to 994 mb just after 8:30 a.m. The plane found flight level winds of 49 knots at flight level, which translates to over 50 mph at the surface along with 40 knot or 45 mph surface observations. And they have not sampled the strongest part of the system yet. Top winds have been increased to 50 mph. There are signs that it is becoming tropical and this transition is expected to occur over the next 24 hours with the system becoming more symmetrical.

The system is passing over NOAA buoy 42099 in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, that buoy does not report wind or air pressure, but it does report 11.5-foot wave heights that are “very steep”. I wouldn’t want to be on a boat in that area.

Alberto is moving faster and on a more direct route to a closer section of the coast, which means the timing of impacts will be sped up. By midnight tonight, the center of the system will only be 100-125 miles south-southeast of Panama City, moving NNW at 10 mph. The center will approach the coast between Destin and Panama City around mid-afternoon Monday as a tropical storm with top winds of 60 mph.

COASTAL IMPACTS:

RAIN: A few showers have been moving along the beaches of Northwest Florida this morning and a rainband is over the Florida Big Bend area that will overspread the coast this afternoon. This band will also move up into Alabama late this afternoon and evening before dissipating. It will bring rain as far north as I-59. The greatest flooding threat has shifted eastward. Areas from Fort Walton eastward to Apalachicola will see 4-8 inches of rain. Pensacola and Baldwin County Alabama will receive 2-4 inches. Mobile less than 2. The threat of flash flooding will spread up into Alabama Monday night and Tuesday. More on that in a minute.

WIND: A tropical storm warning is in effect for the entire coastline of Alabama and Northwest Florida. Here are expected winds:

…Mobile: Winds will stay below 15 mph until Monday night when they will increase to 20-30 mph.
…Pensacola: Winds will stay below 20 mph today but increase to 20-30 mph on Monday and gust to 35-40 mph Monday and Monday night.
…Fort Walton: Winds will increase to between 15-25 mph today with occasional higher gusts, increasing to 20-30 mph on Monday with gusts of 35-50 mph during the afternoon and evening.
…30A/Panama City: Winds will run 15-25 mph today, increasing to 25-35 mph tonight with gusts over 40 mph before sunrise. Winds will average 30-40 mph on Monday with gusts from 35-50 mph by afternoon. Peak gusts could approach 60-70 mph at times Monday afternoon.

SURGE: Water levels are rising along the coast, especially over the eastern parts of the Florida Panhandle. The rise is noticeable at Panama City, where beach workers have been scrambling to remove beach chairs from the rising water levels. Even though the center is further east on the forecast track, areas along the Alabama and Northwest Florida coasts will experience between a two and four foot above ground level surge from the storm.

HIGH SURF: Waves will be very large along the coast. Surf heights around 5 feet today will increase to 10 to 15 feet by Monday. A high surf warning is in effect from Baldwin County eastward through the Panhandle with a high surf advisory for Dauphin Island.

RIP CURRENTS: A high risk of dangerous to potentially deadly rip currents remains in effect through Thursday evening along the Gulf Coast. Most jurisdictions are already flying red flags and in some cases double red flags. The red flags mean you should not go in the water. The double red flags mean it is illegal. There has already been at least one fatality.

TORNADOES: There could be a few tornadoes over the eastern Panhandle today, around Panama City, Apalachicola, and Tallahassee.

I will be back with the impacts for Central Alabama, which will be relatively minor. Flash flooding will be the main threat with 4-6 inches of rain expected along and east of I-65. There will also be a few downed trees Monday night into Tuesday. There could be a few spin up isolated tornadoes over Southeast Alabama on Monday afternoon spreading up through eastern counties Monday night into Tuesday.

Category: ALL POSTS

About the Author ()

Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site's official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site's severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian

Comments are closed.