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SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

| June 23, 2018 @ 4:50 pm

SUMMARY…Gradually increasing convection across the discussion area may necessitate a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance, although convective coverage is uncertain.

DISCUSSION…Satellite and objective analyses indicate a continually destabilizing and weakly inhibited airmass across the discussion area in the wake of an early morning MCS. Convection continues to evolve across southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois and is likely being enhanced by lift aloft associated with a mid/upper shortwave trough centered over Iowa. Instability increases with southward extent, although forcing for ascent is generally weaker with southward extent as well. Shear profiles support storm organization with any cells or linear segments that can organize, although generally weak low-level shear should favor outflow-dominant, hail/wind producing convection through the evening. Models generally depict a varied degree of convective coverage and upscale growth through the evening. The most likely region for more widespread coverage appears to exist downstream of current development from southeastern Missouri into western/middle Tennessee. Uncertainties regarding convective coverage preclude WW issuance at this time, although trends will be monitored.

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Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions

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