SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Tornado Watch Likely

SUMMARY…Severe storms are expected to redevelop during the 00-03Z period along and perhaps ahead of the front, with a few tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. Significant severe weather is possible.

DISCUSSION…An initial round of severe storms is currently lifting northeast across central KY, but a very favorable environment remains in place across the region ahead of a front. This boundary, currently extending from southern IN and IL into southeast MO and northern AR, will shift south this evening. Meanwhile, the main shortwave aloft over MO will dive southeastward across the lower MS Valley. The expectation is for storms to form both along the boundary, and possibly farther east across the open warm sector where a CU field currently exits, or, a southward extension of the ongoing KY activity into middle TN. Shear profiles will favor supercells, and perhaps bowing lines with time should outflow production be more than expected. While model solutions vary with the location, timing, and mode of expected severe storms, the environment is extremely unstable with unseasonably strong shear profiles. Thus, damaging hail, wind, and tornadoes are all possible.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

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