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SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297…

| July 21, 2018 @ 4:36 am

SUMMARY…Occasional damaging wind and isolated large hail remain severe-weather threats across mainly northern into central Georgia, and northeast to eastern Alabama. The overall severe-weather threat across the Tennessee portion of WW 297 is diminishing, with any remaining severe events being sporadic in the short term across middle Tennessee.

DISCUSSION…At 09Z, objective analyses indicated the reservoir of very strong instability (MUCAPE exceeding 3500 J/kg) extended from middle TN to central AL. 25-30-kt westerly low-level winds per area WSR-88D VWP data continue to provide a feed of this instability into the backbuilding MCS across northern GA into parts of middle TN. The southern extent of the MCS in GA and perhaps into part of AL should remain the most active, as the westward-moving convective outflow farther north across middle TN has become more displaced from the existing updrafts. Meanwhile, the aforementioned instability and the presence of strong effective bulk shear will continue to support the potential for both strong/damaging winds and large hail south of the TN border. Although surface-based inhibition is stronger across portions of central and east-central GA, strong, elevated storms will be capable of producing large hail into the southeast portion of WW 297.

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