SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

| August 9, 2018 @ 5:11 pm

SUMMARY…Thunderstorms continue develop across portions of Georgia and South Carolina. Severe wind gusts are possible, but an organized severe threat remains unlikely.

DISCUSSION…A thunderstorm complex has pushed east across the Southeast today and storms have fired along a surface boundary stretching from central South Carolina back west/southwest into Louisiana. Storms are developing within moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), and strong daytime heating has produced relatively steep low-level lapse rates indicating the potential for strong/severe wind gusts. Upscale organization is unlikely given the weak shear, and storms should slowly propagate/develop to the east/southeast. Given the marginal severe environment, a watch is unlikely.

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