SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…A loosely organized cluster of storms has congealed over the last hour or so along the AL/GA border. Strong winds gusts are possible as the storms move northeast across Georgia.

DISCUSSION…Storms that began this morning over Alabama have merged into a loosely organized QLCS along the AL/GA border in the last hour and should continue to move northeast through the afternoon. The storm environment ahead of the line is characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) and relatively weak shear (effective bulk shear of 15-25 knots) with a unidirectional vertical wind profile. Continued insolation will increase boundary-layer mixing and low-level lapse rates ahead of the line, which could produce some isolated strong/severe wind gusts. Given the expected isolated low-end severe wind threat, it is unlikely a watch issuance will be necessary this afternoon across central/northern Georgia.

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