SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…Isolated strong/gusty winds will remain possible through the afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION…Multiple ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across southern LA/MS will continue moving slowly eastward this afternoon. Most of this convection is occurring to the south of surface front draped east-west across the Southeast. A moist low-level airmass and modest diurnal heating are contributing to around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE across the warm sector. VWP from KLIX radar shows generally modest south-southwesterly winds in the 0-2 km AGL, but mid-level winds do increase to around 30-35 kt. Similar magnitudes of effective bulk shear will support at least some updraft organization even though the stronger mid/upper-level winds will remain displaced to the north of the surface front. Given a mainly multicell mode observed so far, isolated instances of 40-60 mph winds producing occasional tree damage should be the primary threat. Limited hodograph curvature in the low levels owing to weak/veered winds will probably limit a meaningful tornado threat, although some weak low-level rotation has been noted recently with a couple cells embedded within a larger cluster to the north of Lake Pontchartrain in southeastern LA. Regardless, the lack of stronger shear will likely limit the overall severe threat, and watch issuance is not expected.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions