SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

| November 7, 2018 @ 12:55 pm

SUMMARY…Isolated strong/gusty winds will remain possible through the afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION…Multiple ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across southern LA/MS will continue moving slowly eastward this afternoon. Most of this convection is occurring to the south of surface front draped east-west across the Southeast. A moist low-level airmass and modest diurnal heating are contributing to around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE across the warm sector. VWP from KLIX radar shows generally modest south-southwesterly winds in the 0-2 km AGL, but mid-level winds do increase to around 30-35 kt. Similar magnitudes of effective bulk shear will support at least some updraft organization even though the stronger mid/upper-level winds will remain displaced to the north of the surface front. Given a mainly multicell mode observed so far, isolated instances of 40-60 mph winds producing occasional tree damage should be the primary threat. Limited hodograph curvature in the low levels owing to weak/veered winds will probably limit a meaningful tornado threat, although some weak low-level rotation has been noted recently with a couple cells embedded within a larger cluster to the north of Lake Pontchartrain in southeastern LA. Regardless, the lack of stronger shear will likely limit the overall severe threat, and watch issuance is not expected.

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Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions

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