Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

Increasing Clouds and Chilly Today; Soaking Rain Tomorrow, Coldest Air So Far This Season at Midweek

| November 11, 2018 @ 7:06 am

A cold start is in progress to this November Sunday. Many areas are below freezing, with upper 20s to lower 30s common for areas north of a line from Tuscaloosa to Centerville to Clanton to Roanoke. Widespread frost is being reported across South Central Alabama. But changes are already underway that will lead to a significant rain event for much of Alabama tomorrow and tomorrow night.

ON THE WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING: We have a split flow pattern in the upper atmosphere across the United States. A trough covers the western U.S., with a broad west-southwesterly flow across the rest of the country, including us here in Alabama. The flow over the Deep South is very fast, over 110 mph up at about 35,000 feet. Down here where we human can breathe, high pressure is centered over southwestern Montana. This high is a big, powerful one, with a pressure of 1048 millibars. Near the center of that high this morning, lows are below zero over parts of Northwest Wyoming and southwestern Montana around Yellowstone National Park. Winter weather advisories and winter storm watches extend from southeastern Wyoming across the Rockies of Colorado into the Sangre de Christo Mountains of New Mexico. The upper trough will progress eastward and spin up a surface low or wave of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico.

FOR YOUR SUNDAY: Moisture will be spreading over our state, increasing cloudiness as it does today. There could be a few light showers or sprinkles during the day as that fast flow aloft shakes out a little moisture. We will top out in the in the lower 50s in the I-20/59 Corridor, with middle and upper 50s to the south. Areas around Hamilton and Marion County may not get out of the 40s today. Showers should start moving into Alabama during the evening hours, increasing as we go through the overnight. Lows tonight will be fairly uniform, in the lower and middle 40s.

RAINY DAYS AND MONDAYS: As that wave spread east-northeastward along the Gulf Coast, rain will increase in coverage and intensity during the morning hours on Monday. Tomorrow should be a rather dreary, bleak day, with rain likely into the afternoon hours. The rain should start ending from the west around 1 p.m., ending in Birmingham around 3-4 p.m. and in the east around 6-7 p.m. But the rain won’t be finished as that main round moves out. Move showers will push across the area Monday night ahead of the cold front.

SEVERE WEATHER: The only chance of severe weather will be across South Alabama near the Gulf Coast on Monday and Monday night. A few claps of thunder may be heard at times across Central Alabama.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS: Rainfall amounts through Tuesday will average 1.5-2 inches across Northwest Alabama, 2-3 inches across Central Alabama, with over 3 inches South Central and South Alabama. Flooding could be an issue for some areas, especially over South Central and South Alabama.

DROUGHTWATCH: Only isolated pockets of abnormally dry conditions were found across Alabama on the Drought Monitor from this past week. Those pockets should be erased when the product is released again on Thursday. Short-term soil needs are good.

MOVING TOWARD MIDWEEK: Tuesday will feature the rain ending from northwest to southeast. It may linger over Southeast Alabama until around noon. It will be turning colder with a strong northwesterly wind behind the front. Temperatures will remain steady in the lower 40s during the morning and will slowly fall during the afternoon. Look for a significant freeze Tuesday night, with lows in the lower and middle 20s. It becomes a temperature forecast for the rest of the week, with high pressure dominating Alabama’s weather. Wednesday will be partly cloudy and cold, with highs in the 40s. Temperatures start to moderate during the day on Thursday after another early freeze. Highs will be in the 50s.

NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND: The GFS threw a wrinkle into the forecast on its run last evening. Remember when the Euro was calling for some snow over the Deep South on Thursday of the coming week? Well now the GFS thinks that could happen. At least one run of it did. It predicts snow flurries may affect Northwest Alabama Wednesday night with some freezing rain over Middle Tennessee. Showers would affect the rest of North and Central Alabama. We will be watching.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: A passing disturbance will swing back Friday and Friday night, but it will be moisture starved, so we remain dry. There could be a few snow showers over the Smoky Mountains of Tennessee and North Carolina. Just another reminder of the season we are heading into. Lows Friday night will be in the 30s and near freezing Saturday night. Daytime highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the lower and middle 50s. We should stay dry until late in the…

THANKSGIVING WEEKEND: Thursday should feature increasing clouds and a little more humidity. A few showers could work their way into West Alabama. Highs will be in the 50s to near 60F. The Iron Bowl looks like it will feature fine weather, with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 60s. Perfect for football!

TROPICS: A tropical wave near 50 West Longitude may develop into a tropical or subtropical storm as conditions become more favorable for strengthening by midweek. If it does, it will receive the name Patty. I will choose to call it Peppermint Patty if it does. It will move toward the U.S. Southeast Coast, but the trough that will bring us rain tomorrow will deflect it out to sea.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Showers will start showing up late today along the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. Rain and storms, including some severe storms, will affect the coast Monday with rain lingering into Tuesday. Highs tomorrow will be near 70F, but will fall back into the 50s through midweek. 60s will be prevalent Thursday, Friday and into the weekend. Lows will be in the middle 30s Wednesday, upper 30s Thursday and 40s Friday and Saturday. Rip currents will be high at times all week as waves run up to 6 feet at times. Water temperatures are running around 68F off Dauphin Island.

Click here to see the Beach Forecast Center page.

WEATHERBRAINS: This week, the panel will entertain Matthew Porcher from the San Antonio area. He has pioneered uses of cameras o help discourage people from driving into flooded areas. Check out the show at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes. You can watch the show live at live.bigbrainsmedia.com You will be able to see the show on the James Spann 24×7 weather channel on cable or directly over the air on the dot 2 feed.

ON THIS DATE IN 1940: One of the most powerful blizzards on record killed 154 people across the Great Lakes area and the Upper Midwest. 49 people died in Minnesota and shipwrecks on Lake Michigan claimed 69 people. 17 inches of snow fell in parts of Iowa and the barometer dropped to 28.66 inches at Duluth, MN. Subzero temperatures and gale force winds made the blizzard one of the most destructive in Iowa history. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter. I am @wxhistorian at Twitter.com.

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About the Author ()

Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site's official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site's severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian

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