SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 435…

SUMMARY…Convective development, including supercells with some risk for a tornado, remains possible, perhaps mainly across far southeastern Alabama into southwestern Georgia (roughly from Dothan AL to Albany GA) through 1-2 AM EST. Thereafter, continuing severe weather potential becomes more uncertain, and it is not clear another watch will be needed.

DISCUSSION…Confluent, 30-50 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow persists off the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, through northern Florida, southeastern Alabama and southern Georgia. This is maintaining an influx of seasonably moist and unstable air, which continues to support considerable thunderstorm development. Convection appears mostly rooted within isentropic ascent above at least a shallow rain-cooled surface-based air mass. The southern edge of this air mass has slowly advected farther inland this evening, and is now generally near/north of the northern Florida/Florida Panhandle border. This is beneath the supporting zone of strongest upper-level difluence/divergence, which the latest Rapid Refresh suggests will continue gradually shifting northeastward into the Carolinas through 06-08z. As this occurs, mid/upper support for continuing convective development across the eastern Gulf coast region becomes more unclear. It is possible that any lingering severe threat may maximize during the 06-07Z time frame across parts of far southeastern Alabama into southwest Georgia, coupled with the inland advecting unstable boundary layer, on the southeastern periphery of the broad surface cyclone centered over the lower Missouri Valley.

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