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Sunday Morning Weather Xtreme: Severe Weather Possible Monday

| December 30, 2018 @ 8:17 am

The end of the year is rapidly closing in and while there have been some terrible national weather disasters, it will be known for a lack of tornado fatalities across the country.

TEN: There have only been ten tornado fatalities nationally this year. Here are the killer tornadoes from 2018:

The reason is that there have been fewer tornadoes overall (990 so far, which is very close to the record low of 944 through December 29th). In an average year, we would have seen 1,297 tornadoes.

None of the fatalities occurred in Alabama. There were 11 injuries in the state from 46 tornadoes. The ten-year average is 60 tornadoes across the state. Here are state statistics from this year:

BACK TO REGULARLY SCHEDULED PROGRAMMING: We are in the middle of the second quarter of year ender rainfall event, that will carry over into 2019. Showers over North Central Alabama have shifted east and diminished early this morning. Additional showers have been lifting northward during the predawn hours along a warm front and are now north of US-80 between Demopolis, Selma and Montgomery then over to Auburn. Rainfall amounts were generally light, but some folks saw over 1 and some even over 1.25 inches.  The heaviest rain probably fell across parts of Calhoun County, between Ohatchee and Jacksonville. 0.68 inches fell at the BHM Airport.

OOPS, MORE YEAR IN REVIEW: We continue to pile up a surplus in the rainfall department for the year.   Birmingham is currently running about 6 and a half inches above normal over the past year.

FOGGY START: Dense fog advisories cover much of South Central and South Alabama.   There is some patchy fog over North Central Alabama as well.  Visibilities are down to 2-3 miles at places like Jasper, Haleyville, Gadsden, and Albertville. Temperatures are cool to start the day, mostly in the 40s, and we will only be in the 50s near and north of I-20 today, with some lower and middle 60s over South Central Alabama.   Many spots will touch 70F or higher on Monday however.

RAINFALL: The showers will move out this morning leaving most areas dry through the afternoon, although we can’t rule out a few showers. Showers are possible overnight, but the heaviest rain will be to the north over Tennessee.

STORMY MONDAY: Monday will be warm and breezy with showers and storms becoming likely as surface low pressure develops over the Midwest and scoots northeast. Showers and storms will reach West Alabama during the afternoon and move across the area during the evening. Dewpoints will reach the middle 60s across parts of Alabama it appears, so the moisture will be in place. But instabilities will be limited by widespread clouds. Still, there is a threat of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes in the low instability, high shear environment that will be present. The highest risk is west of I-65. The SPC has a marginal risk (1/5) up for this area tomorrow. It may be upgraded one category later today or tomorrow. As always, keep an eye on the situation, especially since it will be New Year’s Eve and revelers will not be paying attention. Rainfall amounts will run 0.5-0.75 inches.

ROUND THREE: Tuesday looks dry with just a few lingering showers to greet early brunch goers. More rain and storms will be likely late Wednesday as a bowling ball upper low swings our way and surface low pressure tracks close to us here in Alabama. This rain will continue into Thursday morning before ending during the day. There could be a little lingering light rain across North Alabama on Friday morning. It will turn cooler behind this system, with lows getting down into the 30s Friday morning. Highs might not get out of the 40s that day. 50s will return for the weekend highs but it appears we will be dry as we finally get a break from the rain.

NEXT RAIN: The next rain won’t come until Tuesday night the 8th when another inch or so will fall with a low north of Memphis.

BEACH: Wet week ahead, with showers and storms through Wednesday night. High pressure will build in after that.

WEATHERBRAINS: We will be talking the weather of the Pacific Northwest with an all-star cast Wednesday night on the weekly netcast that’s all about weather. Join us!

WITH ALL THE TALK ABOUT WET: Let’s go back to 2007. On this date that year, 0.47 inches of rain fell at the Birmingham Airport. This brought the annual rainfall total to 28.86, which is the driest year on record in the Magic City. As the year ended, nearly 75% of Alabama was in drought conditions. A full 22 percent was in exceptional drought conditions. The rainfall at the end of the year eased the exceptional drought just a bit, but it would be the middle of 2008 before the drought began to wane in Alabama. Unfortunately, by the end of 2008, an area that included western North Carolina, northwestern South Carolina, and northern Georgia was still in a horrible drought.

In the driest year category, Birmingham was not alone. Huntsville AL (28.65), Rome GA (28.71 and Greenville SC (31.08) each had their driest years on record in 2007.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS

About the Author ()

Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site's official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site's severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian

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