SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…Risk for isolated/local damaging winds and possibly a tornado or two remains apparent at this time, with Tornado Watch issuance being considered.

DISCUSSION…Latest radar shows a semi-organized band of convection — now including a few lightning strikes, extending from far southern Illinois southward into western Mississippi, and then more broken/weaker convection continuing southward across southwest Mississippi and into south-central Louisiana. The convection is occurring near an advancing Pacific cold front — ahead of which the thermodynamic environment remains characterized by a moist boundary layer but weak lapse rates aloft. Fairly expansive warm-sector cloud cover is also indicated, which should hinder more substantial low-level destabilization — and thus expect the marginal pre-frontal thermodynamic environment to persist through the afternoon. With that said, strong shear — with flow veering/increasing with height — is observed across the area, and is supporting weak rotation with a few of the stronger convective cells. One such cell — northeast of Vicksburg, MS — has prompted a tornado warning due to weak but persistent low-level rotation indicated by radar. With time, expect a very slight/gradual increase in convective intensity as is shifts eastward across the Tennessee/Mississippi vicinity. Locally damaging wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two, will remain possible within the advancing convective band, and as such, a watch is being considered at this time, to cover this risk for the remainder of the afternoon.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions