SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 2…

| January 19, 2019 @ 11:38 am

SUMMARY…Threat for damaging wind and a few tornadoes will persist into the afternoon from southeast MS through southern and central AL and the western FL panhandle.

DISCUSSION…As of mid day a line of storms extending from near Tuscaloosa Al southwest to just east of Slidell continues east at around 30 kt. The atmosphere remains marginally unstable downstream with around 500 J/kg MLCAPE, and some cloud breaks evident on visible imagery should contribute to modest destabilization of the boundary layer. Therefore, storms within the line and developing along the warm conveyor belt will likely maintain their intensity this afternoon. Given the size of low-level hodographs with 300-400 m2/s2 0-1 km storm-relative helicity, the threat for embedded supercells and a few tornadoes will persist. A cluster of low-topped showers has also developed during the past hour over southern AL and FL panhandle within a zone of weak low-level confluence. RAP soundings indicate a couple of modest mid-level inversions, and given presence of only very weak forcing, it remains uncertain whether deeper convection can be sustained. However, as the surface layer continues to warm, some potential exists for at least a couple of these updrafts to intensify and develop supercell structures.

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